Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Lincoln, IL

717 
WWUS53 KILX 272246
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

ILC101-159-272255-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-170527T2300Z/
Lawrence-Richland-
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN
RICHLAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3860 8816 3860 8822 3868 8822 3872 8752
      3869 8752 3868 8754 3866 8760 3861 8762
      3859 8761 3859 8764 3858 8764 3857 8765
      3857 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 270DEG 34KT 3860 8777 

$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
328 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

20z/3pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending
from southeast Kansas eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Dewpoints
south of the front are currently in the lower to middle 70s,
creating a highly unstable environment characterized by CAPE values
of 3000-4000J/kg along/south of the I-64 corridor.  Meanwhile north
of the front, a much more stable airmass is in place across much of
central Illinois where lower to middle 60s dewpoints are yielding
CAPEs of only 1000-1500J/kg.  Latest radar mosaic is showing several
clusters of thunderstorms developing along/south of the front, with
the most organized linear structure over central/southern Missouri.
This feature will race eastward along the boundary, largely
remaining south of the KILX CWA this evening.  Based on radar timing
tools, the northern fringe of this system will brush the I-70
corridor between 00z and 04z...with the main widespread damaging
wind threat focusing further south across southern Illinois and
western Kentucky.  HRRR appears to have a good handle on the current
situation and shows this scenario unfolding over the next several
hours.  As a result, have updated PoPs to go with likely along/south
of a Jacksonville...to Taylorville...to Robinson line this evening.
Will need to closely monitor areas from Effingham and Robinson
southward, as the potential still exists for damaging wind gusts and
hail this evening.  Further north, will only carry slight to chance
PoPs for showers/thunder elsewhere around central Illinois.  The
main line of storms will quickly pass into southern Indiana/Kentucky
by around midnight, with only isolated showers expected overnight.

Low pressure will track across central Illinois on Sunday, keeping
rain chances alive throughout the day.  Instability/shear parameters
are meager across the area, with the greatest instability developing
further southeast across the Ohio River Valley.  As a result, the
latest Day 2 Convective Outlook from SPC has shifted the slight risk
out of the SE CWA.  Will carry chance PoPs throughout the day, with
rain chances quickly coming to an end from west to east by late
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Pronounced upper low will dig southward through Ontario into the
Great Lakes early next week, resulting in a cooling trend across
central Illinois.  A weak surface trough will sink southward around
the parent low on Monday, potentially bringing a few showers.
Convergence along the boundary will be weak and with the main upper
cold core still to the north, think areal coverage of precip will
remain low.  As a result, have only mentioned slight chance PoPs for
showers/thunder along and north of I-74 Monday afternoon.  Cool/dry
conditions will prevail Monday night into Tuesday before the next
potential system spreads showers across south-central Illinois
Tuesday night.  After that, mainly dry weather is expected until a
stronger system brings the next significant chance for rain by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Overcast conditions persist at KCMI early this afternoon: however,
skies have become mostly sunny at the remaining terminals. Based
on satellite trends, have lingered MVFR ceilings at KCMI through
20z. After that, attention will turn to developing convection
across Missouri. With synoptic boundary well to the south across
Missouri into southern Illinois, it is becoming apparent that the
bulk of the convection will remain south of central Illinois this
evening. As a result, have removed all mention of thunder at KPIA
and KBMI. Further south at the I-72 terminals, have gone with a
period of VCTS between 01z and 06z at KSPI/KDEC and between 04z
and 10z at KCMI. High-res models are suggesting low clouds/fog
will re-develop late tonight once the convection ends, so have
introduced MVFR ceilings at all sites after 09z through midday
Sunday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
312 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ILZ028-030-031-282015-
Marshall-Stark-Woodford-
312 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening. There is a
marginal risk that some of those storms may become severe, with
hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday, and again Monday
afternoon. The threat of severe storms is low during this time.
Storm chances return again on Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 6 and 9 pm this evening.

ILZ027-029-036>038-040>048-053-055-057-282015-
Cass-Champaign-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-
Mason-McLean-Menard-Peoria-Piatt-Schuyler-Tazewell-Vermilion-
312 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening. There is a
slight risk of severe storms, with damaging winds the primary
hazard. Hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday, and again Monday
afternoon. Storm chances return again on Friday and Saturday. The
threat of severe storms is low during this time.

Flooding will continue along the Illinois river for several more
days, except drop below flood stage around Peoria tonight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 7 pm and midnight this
evening.

ILZ049>052-054-056-061-062-066-282015-
Christian-Coles-Cumberland-Effingham-Morgan-Moultrie-Sangamon-
Scott-Shelby-
312 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening. There is an
enhanced risk of severe storms this evening, with damaging winds
the primary hazard. Large hail and an isolated tornado are also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday. Storm chances return
again on Friday and Saturday. The threat of severe storms is low
during that time frame.

Flooding will continue along Illinois River the entire period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 7 and 11 pm this
evening.

ILZ063-067-068-071>073-282015-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
312 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are likely tonight. There is an enhanced risk of
severe storms this evening, with damaging winds the primary
hazard. Large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday, from late
morning into mid afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible on
on Friday and Saturday. The risk of severe storms is low during
that time frame.

Flooding will continue along the Wabash River for several more
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 8 pm and midnight
tonight.

Shimon