Beach Hazards Statement 12, NWS Wilmington, NC

930 
WHUS42 KILM 120834
CFWILM

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
434 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT ON SATURDAY...

NCZ106-108-130000-
/O.CON.KILM.BH.S.0012.170812T1200Z-170813T0000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
434 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO NORTH
LONGSHORE CURRENT FOR THE BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS SUCH AS RIP
CURRENTS, LONGSHORE CURRENTS, AND OTHER HAZARDS CREATE LIFE-
THREATENING CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN
IN OR NEAR THE WATER.


$$

43

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
336 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will move north from Florida and
Georgia overnight, while a cold front approaches early next
week and stalls. These features will maintain rain chances
through much of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Convection has mainly fired up along the
sea breeze front this afternoon which verifies our High-Res
guidance quite nicely. This same guidance spreads isolated to
scattered convection across the forecast area through the
evening hours. A consensus of guidance has lows in the mid 70s
most places.

P/W contents, already high at around 2 inches, will inch up by
another quarter of an inch through the near term according to
the latest forecast soundings. Although no strong triggers are
evident at present, a moderately unstable and very moist
airmass will not need much to maintain isolated to scattered
convection given multiple boundry interactions now in play.
Saturday should see greater convective coverage than today given
a moister airmass and a sharpening upper trough. In addition, a
weak low moving north from Florida and Georgia will impact the
region and could make for a very wet day. Temperatures on
Saturday will be similar to today, mid 80s near the coast with
upper 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The mid level pattern will change little
during the short term period with a moisture laden west to
southwest flow continuing. At the surface a cold front will make
a futile attempt to move through the area Sunday which will
keep a focus in the area for showers and thunderstorms through
Monday morning. Citing the usual disclaimers of weak shortwaves,
numerous residual boundaries and differential heating its
difficult to determine a time period of "highest pops" but the
combination of daytime heating, an approaching front and some
weak mid level forcing appears to converge on Saturday evening.
There is a weak signal of mid level drying and lower pops for
early Sunday so this is where the lowest pops reside before
ramping back up later Sunday. Severe risk remains minimal but
the activity could be a little more organized than the weakly
forced mostly sea breeze activity we are experiencing today.
Flooding will most likely remain the more serious threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Expect unsettled weather to continue
through most of the extended period as a cold front gradually
pushes across the Carolinas early in the week, and stalls just
south of the area.

With a ridge well east of the area across the Atlantic, a developing
trough across the Great Lakes will gradually push into the Ohio
Valley through early in week. This feature will be the steering
power for a cold front set to push into the Carolinas on Monday.
Guidance suggests this feature will stall just west-northwest of the
area on Tuesday, before pushing through early Wednesday morning.
During this time, ample moisture will be in place across the
forecast area as PW values are forecast to remain over 2 inches
through Wednesday evening. As a result, expect increased cloud cover
and convection chances through midweek. Once the cold front pushes
southeastward through the area, the boundary will stall just south
as high pressure builds in. Though a minor lull in activity is
possible on Thursday as drier air attempts to infiltrate in, PW
values will remain around 1.8 inches. This along with the
afternoon sea breeze, residual boundaries, and the main boundary
just south of the forecast area, have kept POPs in through the
end of the week, though lower than the beginning of the period.

Cloud cover will play a role in the temperature forecast earlier in
the week, but for now, have kept with mid to upper 80's through the
extended period and overnight lows in the lower 70's. An overall
warming trend is possible towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 18Z...Once again the primary concern for aviators will be
the possibility of lowered cigs and vsbys in convection, mainly
this afternoon. A line of showers along the sea breeze front
extends just inland of our coastal terminals and is closest in
vcnty to ILM. This activity is slowly spreading inland so have
not added any wx other than VCSH for the coastal terminals.
Inland sites will also likely remain dry, with FLO having the
best shot at showers this afternoon. MVFR in patchy fog possible
all sites after midnight.

Extended Outlook...Periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
are possible each day due to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure over the western Atlantic
will keep winds southerly in the 10 to 15 kt range through the
period, with gusts up around 20 kts during the afternoon hours.
Seas will range right around 3 ft through Saturday

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...South to southwest winds of mostly 10-15
knots will continue unabated through the period. There may be a
few hours of 16-17 knots early Sunday morning however. The
overall wind speeds will be a little lower late Sunday into
early Monday. Significant seas will remain confined in a range
of 2-4 feet. There may be a few hours of five footers coinciding
with the higher winds early Sunday when a SCEC may be
necessary.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Southwest flow will persist across the
waters early in the week before an approaching cold front from
the west- northwest. Expect this front to push across the waters
late Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning, where it will
likely stall just south of the waters. Seas of 2 to 3 ft on
Monday will increase to 4 ft in the outer waters on Tuesday.
Southwest winds around 10 kts will increase to 10 to 15 kts on
Tuesday as the gradient begins to tighten with the approaching
front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...REK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
315 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-121915-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
315 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-121915-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
315 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.