Wind Advisory 18, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

523 
WWUS72 KGSP 241649
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1149 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...

.A cold front crosses area this afternoon ushering in strong
winds and cold air to the North Carolina mountains and foothills.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-065-501>507-509-250400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.171224T2300Z-171225T1600Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, 
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, 
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, 
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, and Saluda
1149 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains and foothills of North Carolina 
  along and east of French Broad River valley including Haywood 
  county.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds increase this evening and continue through 
  Monday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-058-059-062>064-250400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.171224T2300Z-171225T1600Z/
Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, 
Wesser, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, 
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, 
Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, and Little River
1149 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST MONDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...High elevation locations of the North Carolina 
  mountains west of the French Broad valley.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds increase this evening and continue through 
  Monday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

761 
WWUS72 KGSP 250345
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1045 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...

.A cold front crosses area this afternoon ushering in strong
winds and cold air to the North Carolina mountains and foothills.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-065-501>507-509-251145-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-171225T1600Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, 
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, 
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, 
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, and Saluda
1045 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains and foothills of North Carolina 
  along and east of French Broad River valley including Haywood 
  county.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds increase this evening and continue through 
  Monday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-058-059-062>064-251145-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-171225T1600Z/
Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, 
Wesser, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, 
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, 
Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, and Little River
1045 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...High elevation locations of the North Carolina 
  mountains west of the French Broad valley.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds increase this evening and continue through 
  Monday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

516 
WWUS72 KGSP 251108
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
608 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...

.A cold dome of high pressure will build into the area today,
initially bringing strong wind gusts to the higher terrain of
western North Carolina.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-065-501>507-509-251600-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-171225T1600Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, 
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, 
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, 
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, and Saluda
608 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains and foothills of North Carolina 
  along and east of French Broad River valley including Haywood 
  county.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Through late morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-058-059-062>064-251600-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-171225T1600Z/
Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, 
Wesser, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, 
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, 
Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, and Little River
608 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...High elevation locations of the North Carolina 
  mountains west of the French Broad valley.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Through late morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

240 
WWUS72 KGSP 251615
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1115 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017


NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-251715-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-171225T1600Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, 
Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, 
Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, and Saluda
1115 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Breezy conditions will continue for the next few hours, especially
over the highest elevations of the North Carolina mountains, but
winds will continue to diminish through tonight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will taper off tonight as a front clears the area. Scattered
snow showers are possible in the mountains Sunday night with
another front. Cool and dry high pressure will in on Christmas
Day and last into mid-week. A chilly, wet pattern could develop
by the end of the week, possibly bringing wintry precipitation to
parts of the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EST: The cold front has moved east of the area.
However, lingering low level moisture and weak isentropic lift is
keeping clouds across portions of the foothills and piedmont this
morning. These clouds expand through the morning and cover much of
this area through the day. The guidance can't agree if the lift and
moisture is enough for showers to develop. Took a model blend which
brings isolated showers over the I-40 corridor into the Blue Ridge
and south east of I-77. The clouds will begin to dissipate from SW
to NE through the afternoon as drier air moves in and the isentropic
lift move east. Across the mountains, low clouds linger through the
day in the developing NW flow. Highs range from near normal
mountains to a few degrees above normal elsewhere.

A strong short wave passes by to our north tonight pushing a clipper
type cold front across the area. This system will keep low level
moisture across the mountains bring increasing winds and CAA across
the entire forecast area. Expect NW flow snow showers to develop
along the TN border counties through the evening then slowly taper
off overnight. With the quick shot of precip, snow amounts will
generally top out around an inch in the usual locations across the
higher elevations along the TN border. Some higher valley locations
near the border could see around half an inch. Wind gusts will reach
advisory criteria across much of the mountains and foothills from
the French Broad valley northward and above 3500 feet east of the
valley. Locations above 3500 feet in the northern mountains could
see gusts to 60 mph but that is still uncertain. Therefore, will
issue a wind advisory for now and let the next shift see if the wind
gust forecast remains high enough for a high wind warning. With the
dropping temps overnight, wind chill values will approach 5 below
zero above 3500 feet. Again, there is uncertainty regarding these
values, so will hold off an any wind chill advisories for now. Lows
will fall to a few degrees below normal.

Outside of the NC mountains and foothills, windy to breezy
conditions develop with clearing skies. Lows drop to near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The short-range period will be cold but predominantly tranquil.
NWly gradient winds will relax late Monday morning into the
afternoon hours as the responsible Ohio Valley shortwave lifts NE
into the Mid-Atlantic and high pressure begins to propagate into
the region from the Mid-South.  Nevertheless, the resultant cold-air
advection following the weekend frontal passage will result in max
temps about 6-12 degrees cooler for Monday and generally the same
magnitude below normal under partly sunny skies. The upper-air
pattern quickly goes zonal (flat) as the attendant high pressure
center moves overhead early Tuesday and with light to calm winds
overnight, temperatures will drop to a few degrees below normal,
though mid- and upper-level cloudiness will help to prevent maximum
radiational cooling.  Compared to Monday's highs, high temperatures
are forecast to be 7-10 degrees warmer over the mountains on Tuesday
but only a degree or two elsewhere and everywhere still below
normal as the high pressure center moves offshore.  As a result,
winds briefly veer southerly before a weak reinforcing cold front
slides into the region Tuesday evening from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sun: The synoptic setup for the latter half of the week
is more or less the same as what we've been expecting.  Unfortunately
no model has exhibited good enough run-to-run consistency to give me
high confidence in timing the onset of what could be a high-impact
mixed precip event across the region. The current suite of guidance
is in good agreement, however, on a very cold dome of high pressure
settling into the Ohio Valley and Northeast states by early Thursday.
It looks like cold air will not be hard to come by in this event.

Except for occasional outliers, over several runs the thicknesses
from the GFS and EC have suggested freezing rain and sleet are
possible, the transition zone being broad and across the southern
half of the CWFA. The GFS remains slightly warmer, though not enough
to really call it an outlier. The timing differences are still
significant enough that it is necessary to lean toward one model camp
over the others. The EC looks preferable to the GFS at this point as
it has shown better consistency between runs (though it too has had
outlier runs), and has the most believable temperatures for a wet
wedge event: mins and maxes hovering within a few degrees of
freezing. I will also note the Canadian global model, while between
the GFS and EC in terms of timing, more closely resembles the EC in
its depiction of the event. Right now the EC suggests the peak precip
will be Thursday night. WPC guidance looks to be our best choice for
the medium range as a whole, but the PoP trends, plus Thu night and
Friday temps, were adjusted in favor of the EC.

The partial thickness nomogram technique, using EC thicknesses and
sanity-checked against the fcst temps, was the primary source for
precip type. The colder overall trend in guidance implies mainly snow
will result over the northern mountains and NW NC Piedmont, with mix
for most of the rest of the area as implied above.

The GFS and EC both suggest a clipper will move into the base of the
longwave upper trough following the breakdown of the wedge, though
again the EC is later in depicting this. A northwest flow snow event
is possible as this occurs. Right now we will feature PoPs near the
Tennessee border lingering through Saturday. Temperatures will
rebound Saturday under clearer skies overall, remaining several
degrees below normal. Mins Sunday morning are expected to be in the
teens and lower 20s, reflecting the exceptionally cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Weak upglide and lingering low level moisture
along the slow moving frontal zone is keeping some low VFR to MVFR
clouds across the foothills and piedmont. These clouds should
increase through the early morning with MVFR cigs developing by
daybreak and continuing through the day. MVFR clouds have moving up
the valley toward KAVL so cigs should develop and continue through
the morning. KAVL will see low VFR by afternoon but MVFR lingers
elsewhere until evening when cigs lift or scatter out. Most
locations should remain dry through the period. N to NE winds turn S
to SW by afternoon, except for continued NW flow in the French Broad
Valley around KAVL. Winds turn WSW to W outside of the mountains
during the evening with gusts developing all locations.

Outlook: Dry and cool high pressure will linger through at least mid-
week. A coastal storm may bring chances of wintry precipitation to
the Southeast Thursday or Friday, although confidence in potential
impacts across our area is very low at this point.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  81%     High  82%     Med   68%     Low   56%
KGSP       Med   70%     Med   75%     High  83%     Med   64%
KAVL       High  94%     High  85%     Med   70%     High  87%
KHKY       High 100%     High  83%     Med   66%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   76%     High  86%     High  85%     Med   63%
KAND       Med   76%     Med   65%     High  90%     Med   61%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-242215-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
514 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...Winter weather possible. A cold Arctic airmass will
build down into the area from the north. Moist southerly flow atop
this airmass may lead to the development of a wintry mix early
Thursday morning, especially north of I-85. Precipitation could
change over to rain for a time Thursday.
..Friday...Winter weather possible. A wintry mix may redevelop
Thursday night into Friday over parts of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.