Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Goodland, KS

878 
WGUS73 KGLD 070537
FFSGLD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1137 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

COC063-070730-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170807T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kit Carson CO-
1137 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM MDT FOR
NORTHERN KIT CARSON COUNTY...

At 1135 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area.  Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly or is already 
occurring.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour are occurring over the 
warned area.

Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Kit
Carson County.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 190 and 206, and near
mile marker 211.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10206 3933 10206 3932 10314 3956 10315

$$

JN

639 
WGUS53 KGLD 070715
FFWGLD
COC063-071030-
/O.EXT.KGLD.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170807T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 AM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Goodland has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Kit Carson County in east central Colorado...

* Until 430 AM MDT

* At 114 AM MDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned
  area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

* Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Kit
  Carson County.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 190 and 206, and near
mile marker 211.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10206 3933 10206 3932 10314 3956 10315

$$

JN

400 
WGUS73 KGLD 070909
FFSGLD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
309 AM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

COC063-070919-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170807T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kit Carson CO-
309 AM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3957 10206 3933 10206 3932 10314 3956 10315

$$

JN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
542 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

NW flow aloft transitions to more of a west-southwest flow, with a
coupled upper level jet structure forecast to build over the Central
High Plains late tonight through Monday. Moist southeast flow will
continue to feed into the region, and as upper level forcing
increases widespread showers and thunderstorms should develop from
the west to the east overnight tonight. I can't rule out an isolated
thunderstorm this afternoon, but with subsidence in place at this
time and main forcing still well west before 00Z it's hard to say
where this would be favored. There might be a brief period of
subsidence in the afternoon Monday between mid level vort maxes that
could create a lull for parts of our CWA, but we may still have
lingering showers across our west and only a decrease in intensity.

Regarding severe threat: SPC Mesoanalysis already shows 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE along CO/KS border, match trends from earlier RAP and through
the early evening moderate instabilty may be in place. Bulk
Effective shear is forecast to be in the 30-45kt range, so there
could be a window for a few organized severe cells before
instability drops off before 03Z. Favored locations are going to be
west based on expected thunderstorm timing/favored location during
this limited window.

Regarding heavy rain threat: PWATs 1-1.5" will combine with
favorable thermal and "skinny" CAPE profiles to support very
efficient rain processes. Models are showing strong overlap with
high QPF across our west for the 36hr period. Considering the
potential for slow thunderstorm motion or backbuilding we could have
localized flash flood threats. The question will be how widespread
and where if there is a heavy rain threat, with instability  limited
at times across our CWA. Ultimately this may end up being a
prolonged moderate rain event where the totals are spread out, and
instantaneous rates remain less than flash flood guidance. I leaned
against a flash flood watch during this update, but I did play up
wording in both forecast and HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Shower and thunderstorm chances persist throughout the long term
period as weak shortwaves move through the west to northwest flow
aloft.

A stronger disturbance continues across the High Plains from the
Rockies Monday night through Tuesday night, generating showers and
thunderstorms. With abundant moisture filtering into the region and
PWATS in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern during this timeframe and flash flooding will need to
monitored.

Conditions dry out midweek behind the passing disturbance, but with
persistent northwest flow, patchy precipitation chances are strewn
throughout the forecast area. Predictability of locations and timing
are made difficult by the variability of this weather pattern. It is
even tougher to have confidence in periods further out. That being
said, guidance suggests that a shortwave will travel through the
Plains at the end of the work week as a cold front approaches from
the north, crossing the area by Sunday. Cannot rule out
precipitation through the weekend.

Temperatures gradually warm during the long term period, but remain
below normal. Highs start in the low/mid 70s on Tuesday and climb
into the low/mid 80s by Friday. Lows remain in the mid 50s to low
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Primary focus is the
timing of rainfall and associated lower ceiling. Have more
confidence of when the rainfall/low ceiling will begin and duration
for KGLD than KMCK. May end up needing to place rainfall in a
prevailing group for KMCK, but do not have high enough confidence
for this TAF. Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely to occur at
KGLD during the overnight, just not enough confidence of when an
how long it will last to mention in this TAF. For both sites the
ceiling may be IFR longer into the morning than currently
forecast, but have ceiling improving based on trends this morning
and what is typical for both sites.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
940 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-080345-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
940 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017 /1040 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Flash flooding will be the biggest threat overnight. Storms moving
in from the west may bring rainfall amounts of 2 inches or more,
mainly west of Highway 25. Hail up to quarter size is possible with
any stronger storms that may form before midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day from Monday through
next weekend. A very moist air mass and slow moving thunderstorms
may contribute to an elevated risk for flash flooding, especially
Monday through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not required at this time.