Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

414 
WGUS75 KFGZ 121920
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1220 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

AZC025-122200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
1220 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 1216 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms continuing to 
produce moderate to heavy rain across northern portions of the 
Goodwin Fire scar. At 1207 PM MST, a rain gauge in Grapevine Canyon 
had recorded one half inch of rain in 30 minutes.  At 1215 PM MST, a 
rain gauge on Big Bug Mesa had recorded three-tenths of an inch of 
rain in 15 minutes.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Mayer and Poland Junction. 

This includes State Route 69 between mile markers 267 and 276.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall over the Goodwin fire scar will likely trigger life
threatening flash floods and debris flows in and downstream of the
fire area. Residences near drainages and creeks, particularly Big Bug
Creek and surrounding tributaries such as Grapevine Creek and
Hackberry Creek, may be affected by high water and debris flows.
Heavy rains may cause flooding of Big Bug Creek near Mayer.
Move away from drainages now!

&&

LAT...LON 3445 11221 3440 11221 3436 11217 3436 11220
      3437 11224 3438 11238 3445 11237 3447 11229

$$

039 
WGUS75 KFGZ 122014
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
114 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

AZC025-122200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
114 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 108 PM MST, rainfall had largely ended over the Goodwin Fire 
scar. However, flash flooding is still occurring. Rain gauges in 
Grapevine Canyon and on Big Bug Mesa recorded between one-half and 
three-quarters of an inch of rain in one hour.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Mayer and Poland Junction. 

The Yavapai County Flood Control District reports that Grapevine 
Creek within the Goodwin Fire scar is running very high. Water and 
debris from Grapevine Creek and Big Bug Creek is expected to reach 
Mayer within the next hour or two.  Stay away from creeks 
and drainages!

This includes the following streams and drainages...Lynx Creek...
Turkey Creek...Little Wolf Creek...Cedar Creek...Grapevine Creek...
Agua Fria River...Pine Creek...Wolf Creek...Hackberry Creek and Big
Bug Creek.

This includes State Route 69 between mile markers 267 and 276.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall over the Goodwin fire scar will likely trigger life
threatening flash floods and debris flows in and downstream of the
fire area. Residences near drainages and creeks, particularly Big Bug
Creek and surrounding tributaries such as Grapevine Creek and
Hackberry Creek, may be affected by high water and debris flows.
Heavy rains may cause flooding across State Highway 69 near Mayer.
Move away from drainages now!

&&

LAT...LON 3445 11221 3440 11221 3436 11217 3436 11220
      3437 11224 3438 11238 3445 11237 3447 11229

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST Wed Jul 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Look for seasonable temperatures with afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms continuing well into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will remain in place across
northern Arizona well into next week. Anticipate that there will
be day-to-day variations in coverage of showers and storms but
that monsoon activity will be hanging around for a while.

For today...The morning sounding at Bellemont shows that some
drying has taken place over the past 24 hours. The models indicate
that some weak sinking motion is located across northwest
Arizona. As a result, we are looking at a bit of a downturn in
storm activity along and northwest of a line from the four corners
to Payson. Southeast of this line deep moisture will remain in
place with a typical round of monsoon thunderstorms. General storm
motion is expected to be to the east/northeast (based on the flow
aloft) with tendency to form over the mountains midday and move
toward the lower elevations from the mid afternoon into the early
evening.

Over the coming week...The monsoon high shifts northward becoming
centered over the general area of Utah, Arizona and Nevada. Not much
change in thunderstorm coverage on Thursday and Friday. From
Saturday onward, the position of the high will deliver a general
northeast to east flow to northern and central Arizona. Under this
pattern activity north of the Mogollon Rim tends to be on the low
side with drier air(and that is what we are anticipating). From
the Mogollon Rim southward the door often opens up to a flow of
low-level moisture from over the Gulf of California and
thunderstorm outflows from over northwest Mexico. When the flow is
just right this deep moisture moves all the way to the Mogollon
Rim. Deeper moisture means the potential for stronger storms which
would include the Mogollon Rim country and locations south such
as Prescott, Payson and surrounding areas. We'll be keeping an eye
on this one.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect sct shra/tsra and isold
+tsra. Convection initiating over higher terrain and moving
east/northeast. Most activity will be east of a line from KPRC-KCMR-
KGCN. Brief MVFR/IFR in the stronger cells. Activity diminishing aft
00z-02z Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Slightly less activity can be expected today and
Thursday, mainly over the western and northern zones, as drier and
more stable southwest flow continues. Central and eastern zones will
remain in a medium grade monsoon pattern. Minimum relative humidity
values will drop over the northern and western zones. Winds apart
from thunderstorms will be light.

Friday through Sunday...After comparatively quiet conditions again
on Friday, the district will slowly return to a widespread medium to
high grade monsoon pattern. This is due to an easterly wave that
will push moisture back west and north over the weekend. A modest
warming trend will develop Friday and Saturday, as the ridge aloft
strengthens.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...MCT/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Wed Jul 12 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-130700-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
420 AM MST Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Expect initial storm formation over the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains by late this morning. Thunderstorms will be most
prevalent from the Mogollon Rim eastward, with less activity in
western Yavapai county and western Coconino county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Expect less storm coverage through Friday, especially over the
western sections. A warming trend will develop late this week.
Moisture will become deeper and move back north and west over the
weekend, with storm activity increasing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

KD