Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Dodge City, KS

565 
WWUS53 KDDC 172349
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
649 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

KSC175-172359-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-170618T0015Z/
Seward KS-
649 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3735 10064 3739 10064 3739 10067 3755 10078
      3764 10077 3742 10022 3722 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 306DEG 13KT 3751 10068 

$$

KSC069-081-119-180015-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-170618T0015Z/
Meade KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
649 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES...

At 649 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tice, or 9
miles east of Sublette, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Plains, Copeland, Tice, Missler and The Hobart Elevator. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 10064 3739 10064 3739 10067 3755 10078
      3764 10077 3742 10022 3722 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 306DEG 13KT 3751 10068 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

760 
WWUS53 KDDC 180011
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
711 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

KSC069-081-119-180021-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-170618T0015Z/
Meade KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
711 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEADE...
SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
715 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3735 10064 3739 10064 3739 10067 3755 10078
      3764 10077 3742 10022 3722 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 304DEG 22KT 3745 10053 

$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Main concern is severe convection and strong cold front winds
tonight. An impressive strong jet streak was moving across the
Northern Rockies impinging on the Northern Plains today. 400mb jet
core was around 100 knots moving across Wyoming late this morning.
This intense jet and storm system will result in a rather strong
cold front for mid-June across western Kansas later this
afternoon/evening. Convective outflow from the overnight MCS across
eastern KS altered the surface flow field somewhat, however synoptic
influences with the approaching jet streak should readjust the flow
field with a bit of a cyclonic center developing just ahead of the
surface cold front across west-central KS early this evening. This
is where the best chance for a vigorous thunderstorm will develop,
and there is growing agreement among various convective-allowing
models of this occurring across southwest KS. The latest runs of the
HRRR even suggest a supercell structure is not out of the question.
There will certainly be strong enough mid and upper level winds to
support a supercell right along or immediately ahead of the cold
front. The cold front itself should have a very healthy density
current head with it, as it charges south early this evening. This
alone will lead to 25 to 40 mph winds in the region of strongest
pressure rises. Add vigorous deep moist convection to the equation
and and the wind potential goes up dramatically -- perhaps peak
gusts in the 70-80mph range in an isolated location tied to the
strongest severe storm. Of course, as with any supercell storm, very
large hail will also be expected.  Severe weather threat will exit
the southwest KS region in the 04-06z time frame with a much cooler
airmass in place. Not much to worry about in the forecast for
tomorrow. A very pleasant day forecast with fresh airmass in place --
 dewpoints in the 40s and temperatures topping out around 80 most
areas. We just have to get through tonight!

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

After this weekend, we will gradually return to a summer pattern
as a 594 dam 500mb high expands across the Desert Southwest
region. The expansion of the high will lead to a more anticylonically
curved mid level flow pattern out of the northwest across western
Kansas. The main polar jet will shift north to the international
border with negligible forcing for ascent for organized convective
weather. This is why POPs are generally low next week, although
widely scattered storms can be expected with surface lee trough
setups that occur. The next bonafide polar front will most likely
not be until late next week when the Desert Southwest high
flattens out as the jet stream shift slightly south. There is a
lot of uncertainty, of course, regarding any front timing and
strength that far out. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the
hottest days coming up with 100-degree highs in the forecast
again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A strong cold front will sweep through this evening, ushering in
convection and strong NE winds. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected, and included TEMPO groups when impacts are most probable
at each terminal. Primary threat from storms this evening will be
strong wind gusts, possibly exceeding 50 kts with the strongest
storms. HRRR model generates a line of convection from roughly
HYS to LBL 01-02z, with a thunderstorm complex exiting the P28
vicinity around 04z. Even outside of convection, NE winds will be
very strong for several hours this evening, with an unusually
strong pressure gradient for June. NE wind gusts of 35-40 kts can
be expected, with areas of blowing dust reducing visibility. North
winds will diminish rapidly late tonight through Sunday morning.
VFR is expected Sunday, with light north winds around 10 kts and
much cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  82  61  87 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  61  82  59  89 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  60  83  60  90 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  64  83  62  90 /  20   0  10   0
HYS  60  80  59  87 /  40   0   0  10
P28  65  84  61  88 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
449 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-181000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
449 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 /349 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A cold front will be the focus for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms early this evening.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Elevated risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
546 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             7 N MACKSVILLE          38.06N 98.95W
06/17/2017  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT