Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

120 
WWUS41 KBUF 190227
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
927 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

NYZ019-020-085-191030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.171119T0900Z-171120T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
927 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected from 4 AM Sunday to 1 PM 
  Monday. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during 
  the morning commute on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 4 
  to 8 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...4 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-191030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.171119T2100Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
927 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible from Sunday afternoon 
  through Monday evening. Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Monday. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

389 
WWUS41 KBUF 190643
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

NYZ019-020-085-191445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.171119T0900Z-171120T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
143 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected from 7 AM today to 1 PM 
  Monday. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during 
  the morning commute on Monday. Tree branches could fall as 
  well. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are expected 
  in the most persistent lake snows for the 30 hour period.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...7 AM today to 1 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-191445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.171119T2100Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
143 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy lake effect snow possible from late
  this afternoon through Monday evening. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.
  Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible in 
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From late this afternoon through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

009 
WWUS41 KBUF 190900
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
400 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

NYZ019-020-085-191700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
400 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected from 7 AM today to 1 PM Monday.
  Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree branches could fall as
  well. Total snow accumulations for the 30 hour period will range
  from 5 to 9 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...4 AM today to 1 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions 
and visibilities.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-191700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.171119T2100Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
400 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy lake effect snow possible from late
  this afternoon through Monday evening. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions later tonight and Monday, including the Monday
  morning commute. Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From later this afternoon through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

229 
WWUS41 KBUF 191149
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

NYZ019-020-085-192000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
649 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected from 7 AM today to 1 PM 
  Monday. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree branches 
  could fall as well. Total snow accumulations for the 30 hour 
  period will range from 5 to 9 inches in the most persistent 
  lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...7 AM today to 1 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-192000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.171119T2100Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
649 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy lake effect snow possible from late 
  this afternoon through Monday evening. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions later tonight and Monday, including the 
  Monday morning commute. Total snow accumulations in excess of 
  6 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From later this afternoon through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

507 
WWUS41 KBUF 191732
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1232 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

NYZ019-020-085-200145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1232 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected through Monday afternoon. Plan
  on difficult travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-200145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.171119T2100Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
1232 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible from late this afternoon
  through Monday evening. Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Monday. Total snow 
  accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

TMA

299 
WWUS41 KBUF 191931
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

NYZ005-006-200345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.171119T2100Z-171121T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0007.171120T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday. 
  Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 6 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4371 7529 4377 7609 4374 7622 
        4359 7625 4356 7643 4347 7656 4340 7586 4348 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M11D15T0000Z-Y17M11D15T0600Z

$$

NYZ004-200345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.171120T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Monday. In addition, 
  areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne county.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 10 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

&&

$$

NYZ012-200345-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-
Including the city of Warsaw
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on slippery road conditions. In 
  addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-200345-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

&&

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1014 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strengthening storm system approaching from the mid western states
will generate occasional rain across our region this afternoon, then
a strong cold front will plow across the Lower Great Lakes to
produce mixed precipitation tonight. Gusty winds in the wake of the
powerful front will introduce a notably colder airmass into the area
for the second half of the weekend. This December like airmass will
generate accumulating snows southeast of both lakes Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As promised for nearly a week now...it will be quite unsettled over
our region today as a complex storm system will approach our region
from the mid west. The system will be responsible for two distinct
rain events...some gusty winds...and eventually some accumulating
lake snows for sites southeast of both lakes.

Regional radars showing rain ending from west to east. This will
leave plenty of cloud cover into the early part of the afternoon
with little in the way of rain.

As we progress through the afternoon...the second round of rain
will take aim on the region as the deepening cyclone will make
its way to the northeast across Lake Erie. The impetus for this
round of rain will be even stronger jet induced lift brought
about in the left front entrance region of a 140kt H25 jet over
the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In fact...the rain will
probably be heaviest with this particular batch for the late
afternoon and early evening. Rainfall amounts during the
daylight hours will range from roughly three quarters of an inch
over the Southern Tier to under a quarter inch over the North
Country. A southerly flow will factor into this...providing a
little orographic enhancement for the Southern Tier...and a
general 25 percent reduction from downsloping along a 25 mile
swath straddling the New York state Thruway between Buffalo and
the Montezuma wildlife refuge west of Syracuse. This same effect
will be found on opposing sides of the Tug Hill plateau.

Meanwhile...much milder air will pour northward across the region in
the wake of the initial 'warm front'. This will allow temperatures to
climb to within a few degrees of 50 today across the western
counties...with readings likely stalling in the 40s for the Eastern
Lake Ontario region. The warmth will be immediately proceeded by
some gusty winds...mainly over the higher terrain (abv 1500 ft)
where winds could gust to 35 mph.

Tonight...the deep cyclone will move from southernmost Ontario and
the Niagara Frontier to the St Lawrence Valley. This forecast track
is too close to our forecast area to be a legitimate high wind
threat...although it will certainly become windy in its wake. The
strongest winds tonight will come after midnight...and will be
focused across the immediate lake shows and for the higher
elevations where winds could gust to 45 mph.

Along with the freshening winds overnight...strong H925-70
frontogentic forcing along and behind a powerful cold front will
lead to more precipitation. All of this will be in the form of rain
through midnight...then as colder air deepens in the wake of the
cold front...the rain will taper off as a mix of light rain and wet
snow. This change over will be a couple hours slower than earlier
forecasts...but there could still be enough snow for some of the
higher elevations to pick up a light coating by daybreak. This will
mainly be the case across the Southern Tier where the synoptic
driven precipitation will transition to lake effect by morning. Also
working against more significant accumulations will be temperatures
that are forecast to only drop to the low to mid 30s for the high
spots...and the mid to upper 30s across the lake plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By the start of Sunday morning...deep low pressure will be
situated just north of the New York-Quebec border...with this
feature sliding further down the Saint Lawrence Valley during
the course of the day. Consequently...lingering synoptically-
driven rain across the eastern Finger Lakes and North Country
(with snow mixed in across the higher terrain) at the start of
the day will steadily wind down from west to east during Sunday
morning.

In the wake of the low...a cyclonic flow of much colder air will
overspread the region Sunday...then will remain in place through
Sunday night and Monday morning...before giving way to building
ridging and a corresponding warm advection regime Monday afternoon
and Monday night. With lake-deltaT values more than favorable for
a lake response and inversion heights looking to be at respectable
levels at points...this will set the stage for a round of lake
effect snows to the southeast of both lakes in a predominantly
west-northwest flow regime. The above said...synoptic-scale
moisture levels/inversion heights will also be a limiting factor
at points...as will a relative lack of consistent strong lift
within the prime dendritic snow growth zone. Putting all of this
together...it currently still appears that advisory-type snows
will be the most likely outcome within the favored lake effect
areas.

Looking more closely at the forecast details...off Lake Erie the
incoming colder airmass will already be cold enough to support
a lake response by the start of Sunday morning...with marginal
temperature profiles supporting a mix of rain and wet snow
initially...before steady cold air advection drives a changeover
to predominantly snow as the day progresses. While the lake effect
activity will be relatively weak/light in nature Sunday morning...
it should ramp up to moderate levels for Sunday afternoon and
evening as an synoptic-scale moisture improves...an upstream
connection develops to Lake Huron and inversion heights temporarily
climb to around 8-9 kft. After that time...light to occasionally
moderate lake snows will then continue through the balance of
Sunday night and into Monday morning on gradually backing low
level flow...before rapidly weakening Monday afternoon as inversion
heights crash and supporting background moisture diminishes. Expect
just some remnant flurries to possibly reach the Niagara Frontier
as the flow backs further to west-southwesterly early Monday
evening...before ending altogether by midnight.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...the developing lake effect activity
will likely remain considerably hampered (and thus lighter in nature)
through most if not all of Sunday by the more limited synoptic-scale
moisture that will be in place over that region for the latter two
thirds of the day...as well as somewhat lower inversion heights.
This will then change late Sunday and Sunday night as synoptic-scale
moisture improves...an upstream connection develops to Georgian Bay...
and inversion heights climb to more favorable levels...all of which
should allow for a more cohesive band of moderate snow to develop
east-southeast of the lake...where it will continue through Monday
morning. After that time...the band will gradually lift north toward
the Tug Hill while tending to weaken through the rest of Monday as
the upstream connection is lost and background moisture fades again...
before lifting further north to the Watertown area and falling apart
Monday night as the flow backs to southwesterly and inversion heights
rapidly crash.

Again...snowfall totals from this event look to primarily be in the
advisory range off both lakes...with current forecast projections
supporting the potential for a general 3-6" per 12 hours while the
lake snows are at their peak...which will not last much more than
that off either lake. Given this...have elected to hold off on
issuing any winter weather headlines for at least one more forecast
cycle. While some lower-end warning-criteria snows cannot be completely
ruled out southeast of Lake Ontario given the potential upstream
connection to Georgian Bay...such amounts remain rather questionable
at the present time.

Outside of the lingering synoptic-scale precipitation Sunday morning
and the aforementioned lake snows...the Sunday-Monday night period
will feature colder temperatures and some scattered snow showers
at times...with rather windy conditions on Sunday diminishing to
more moderate levels Sunday night and Monday.

Taking a quick gander at the last third of this period...Tuesday
still looks to be mainly dry and breezy to windy again out ahead
of an approaching cold front...while the strong warm advective
regime out ahead of the front also temporarily drives temperatures
back to above average levels in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The front
itself will then ease its way across our region Tuesday night...
with scattered rain showers mixing with/changing over to snow
as colder air returns in the wake of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Wednesday a colder west-northwesterly flow will again be in place
across our region...however the colder airmass also appears to be
rather dry. This should tend to keep any lake response downwind of
the lakes fairly limited in scope...with a return to largely dry
weather then more likely for Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day
as surface-based ridging builds across the region..

Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from Canada
Friday...maintain chances for snow, especially across Lake Ontario
and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak warm front pushing north across our region will keep or lower
cigs to MVFR. Meanwhile, cigs will be at IFR levels across the
bulk of the Southern Tier. These lowering cigs will be
accompanied by a little light rain.

As we progress through the afternoon into the early evening, a
strengthening storm system moving by just to our west will
spread another round of steady rain across the region. The rain
will help to further lower cigs to IFR levels in most areas for
tonight, with low IFR cigs anticipated for the Southern Tier
and portions of the Finger Lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday-Monday...Lake effect SN, IFR SE of lakes, otherwise VFR/MVFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Rain and snow showers with a chance of MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A deepening storm system over the mid western states will approach
the Lower Great Lakes today...and this will result in freshening
southerly winds. While winds will approach small craft advisory
criteria...the highest waves will be directed into Canadian waters.

The real problem during this forecast package will be the strong
winds that will follow the strengthening storm system as it exits to
our north and east late tonight and Sunday. Winds veering to the
west and northwest in the wake of the storm will increase to gale
force late tonight through Sunday. Gale warnings will remain in
place.

These very strong winds will only marginally subside Sunday night
and Monday...as expansive high pressure over the southern states
will make its way off the southeast coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Developing very strong onshore winds will build significant wave
action from late tonight into Sunday night along the Lake
Ontario shoreline. The combination of already higher lake levels
and continued wave action will result in increased shoreline
erosion, especially where the lakeshore is already unstable from
erosion earlier in the year.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Watch from late tonight through late Sunday
     night for NYZ001>007.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

NYZ001-002-190945-
Niagara-Orleans-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

Strong low pressure will track across the Lower Great Lakes tonight.
In its wake, strong winds are expected to develop later tonight,
with wind gusts in excess of 45 mph possible...mainly along and a bit
inland from the immediate Lake Ontario shore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

Strong wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will remain possible on
Sunday, mainly along and a bit inland from the immediate Lake
Ontario shore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>007-190945-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

Strong low pressure will track across the Lower Great Lakes tonight.
In its wake, strong winds are expected to develop later tonight,
with wind gusts in excess of 45 mph possible...mainly along and a bit
inland from the immediate Lake Ontario shore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

Strong wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will remain possible on
Sunday, mainly along and a bit inland from the immediate Lake
Ontario shore.

Much colder air will overspread the region on Sunday, setting the
stage for lake effect snow southeast and east of Lake Ontario
Sunday through Monday, with the most persistent snow bands having
the potential to produce accumulations of greater than 4 inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-013-014-190945-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong low pressure will track across the Lower Great Lakes tonight.
In its wake, strong winds are expected to develop later tonight,
with localized wind gusts in excess of 45 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Localized wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will remain possible on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019>021-085-190945-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong low pressure will track across the Lower Great Lakes tonight.
In its wake, strong winds are expected to develop later tonight,
with wind gusts in excess of 45 mph possible...mainly along and a bit
inland from the immediate Lake Erie shore as well as across the
higher terrain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will remain possible on
Sunday, mainly along and a bit inland from the immediate Lake
Erie shore as well as across the higher terrain.

Much colder air will overspread the region on Sunday, setting the
stage for lake effect snow southeast and east of Lake Erie Sunday
through Monday, with the most persistent snow bands having the
potential to produce accumulations of greater than 4 inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-190945-
Lewis-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-SLZ022-024-190945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-190945-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-190945-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
443 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR