Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2017
Wind Advisory 14, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this wind advisory at Oct 23, 2017, 4:35 AM EDT for 10 counties in New York. It took effect at Oct 23, 2017, 4:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 16 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 23, 2017, 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 23, 2017, 4:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 24, 2017, 8:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2011 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 65 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
970 WWUS71 KBUF 230835 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 435 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 NYZ019-085-231645- /O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171023T2000Z-171024T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 435 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening. * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially near and along the Lake Erie shoreline. * TIMING...From late this afternoon through late this evening. * WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. The southeast flow will make travel in high profile vehicles difficult at times. This will include Route 5 and the New York State Thruway where winds will be perpendicular to travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ007-008-231645- /O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171024T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 435 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday. * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, including the Black River Valley and the northwest slope of the Tug Hill. * TIMING...From early this evening through early Tuesday morning. * WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ Thomas
7 follow-up statements
565 WWUS71 KBUF 231206 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 806 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 NYZ019-085-232015- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171023T2000Z-171024T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 806 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially near and along the Lake Erie shoreline. * TIMING...From late this afternoon through late this evening. * WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. The southeast flow will make travel in high profile vehicles difficult at times. This will include Route 5 and the New York State Thruway where winds will be perpendicular to travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ007-008-232015- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171024T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 806 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, including the Black River Valley and the northwest slope of the Tug Hill. * TIMING...From early this evening through early Tuesday morning. * WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$
813 WWUS71 KBUF 231714 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 114 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 NYZ019-085-240115- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171023T2000Z-171024T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 114 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially near and along the Lake Erie shoreline. * TIMING...From late this afternoon through late this evening. * WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. The southeast flow will make travel in high profile vehicles difficult at times. This will include Route 5 and the New York State Thruway where winds will be perpendicular to travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ007-008-240115- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171024T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 114 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, including the Black River Valley and the northwest slope of the Tug Hill. * TIMING...From early this evening through early Tuesday morning. * WINDS...Southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$
039 WWUS71 KBUF 232029 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 429 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 NYZ012-020-021-240400- /O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171023T2029Z-171024T0600Z/ Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, and Wellsville 429 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 2 AM EDT Tuesday. * LOCATIONS...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties, mainly across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through overnight tonight. * WINDS...Southeast to south 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ013-014-240400- /O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171024T0000Z-171024T0900Z/ Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua 429 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday. * LOCATIONS...Livingston and Ontario counties, mainly across the higher terrain. * TIMING...From early this evening through late tonight. * WINDS...Southeast to south 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ006-240400- /O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171024T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 429 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday. * LOCATIONS...Oswego county, mainly across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. * TIMING...From early this evening through early Tuesday morning. * WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ019-085-240400- /O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T0600Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 429 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially near and along the Lake Erie shoreline as well as across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through overnight tonight. * WINDS...Southeast to south 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will also be difficult at times...including along Route 5 and the New York State Thruway where winds will be perpendicular to travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ007-008-240400- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.171024T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 429 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, including the Black River Valley and the northwest slope of the Tug Hill. * TIMING...From early this evening through early Tuesday morning. * WINDS...Southeast to south 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ JJR
866 WWUS71 KBUF 240218 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1018 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 NYZ012-019>021-085-240600- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 1018 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier, especially across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through 2 AM. * WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will also be difficult at times...including along Route 5 and the New York State Thruway where winds will be perpendicular to travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ006>008-241030- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1018 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region, mainly across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through early Tuesday morning. * WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ013-014-240900- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T0900Z/ Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua 1018 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Livingston and Ontario counties, mainly across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through late tonight. * WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ JJR
989 WWUS71 KBUF 240539 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 NYZ012-019>021-085-240645- /O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T0600Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 139 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Wind Advisory. $$ NYZ006>008-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 139 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region, mainly across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through early this morning. * WINDS...South 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$ NYZ013-014-240900- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T0900Z/ Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua 139 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * LOCATIONS...Livingston and Ontario counties, mainly across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through early this morning. * WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$
901 WWUS71 KBUF 240833 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 433 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 NYZ013-014-240945- /O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T0900Z/ Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua 433 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Wind Advisory. $$ NYZ006>008-241200- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 433 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region, mainly across the higher terrain. * TIMING...Through early this morning. * WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may bring down a few small tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be 31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and tv stations for further details or updates. && $$
335 WWUS71 KBUF 241148 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 748 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 NYZ006>008-241300- /O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-171024T1200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 748 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... A cold front is moving across the region this morning with winds dropping off dramatically behind the front. Therefore the wind advisory will expire at 8 AM this morning. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Oct 23, 1:32 AM EDT, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 23, 1:32 AM EDT, 3 hours 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 132 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather will continue through Monday afternoon. A cold front will then slowly cross the area Monday night and produce periods of rain. A few scattered showers and lake effect rain showers will then continue through much of the week as temperatures turn progressively cooler. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Strong high pressure will remain anchored off the New England coast overnight. Subsidence and dry air will continue to support fair weather with additional cirrus level cloudiness crossing the area. Model point soundings continue to show low level moisture increasing across central PA overnight, and some of this may move northward into interior sections of the Southern Tier late tonight and Monday morning. Otherwise increasing southerly flow and mixing will keep temperatures very mild overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake plains and low to mid 50s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County. To put this into proper perspective... such readings will actually range near or above normal HIGH temperatures for this time of year. On Monday high pressure will drift farther east off the eastern seaboard. Subsidence and dry air will continue to hold moisture ahead of the next system at bay for the majority of the day, with mid level clouds increasing from west to east. A strong mid level trough will dig into the western Great Lakes through the course of the day. DPVA from the first shortwave will begin to reach Western NY by the end of the day along with deeper moisture. This may allow a few showers to develop at the far western end of the state by late afternoon. Temperatures will be well above normal again, with highs in the low to mid 70s on the lake plains aided by SSW downslope flow, while higher terrain remains in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Time to 'pay the piper'. After a prolonged stretch of absolutely gorgeous weather...we can expect a significant shift in the overlying weather pattern across the country. This change will not include a polarity shift in temperature anomalies over the nation but will also include a much more dynamic and progressive pattern...one that will involve three DISTINCT cold shots. We will only deal with the first of these colder intrusions in this short term period. A phasing of a split flow will take place as we open this period late Monday and Monday night...as a robust shortwave within the northern branch will dive south across the plains. This will carve out a full latitude longwave trough that will capture a southern stream storm system already found over the Upper Ohio Valley. As the mature southern stream system ejects to the north Monday night...it will push a surface occlusion across our forecast area. Strong frontogentic forcing associated with this boundary will be accompanied by some lift under the right rear entrance region of a 110kt H25 jet over southern Ontario...providing plenty of forcing within an airmass that will include PWAT values in the vcnty of 1.5 inches. This will produce a 3-5 hour swath of fairly steady rain... some of which could be heavy at times...especially if there is any embedded convection. The precipitation will be found within a deep southerly flow...one that will allow for some training while also retarding the eastward progression of the main swath of rain. This will encourage a soaking rainfall across the Southern Tier...but the resulting downsloping will eat away at rainfall amounts across the lake plains. As the occlusion pushes east during the course of the night...a distinct dry slot will start to work across the region. This will bring an end to the widespread rain over the far western counties while the steady pcpn will be in the process of working across the North Country. The other potential issue for Monday night will be the risk for some strong gusty winds. A 50-60 kt low level jet will precede the sfc occlusion and likely will precede the steadier rain. A portion of these strong winds could be mixed to the sfc...with the greatest risk area being found along the Lake Erie shoreline where downsloping could come into play. Am not particularly impressed with the strength of the forecast inversion and direction of the flow at inversion level to do anything more than to continue the mention of strong gusts in the HWO product. On Tuesday...all of the forcing associated with the initial storm system will exit across the St Lawrence Valley while a wealth of mid level dry air will spread across the entirety of our forecast area. This will bring an end to the remaining steady rain that will be found over eastern sections and should limit any possible lake effect rain that tries to get going north/northeast of Lake Erie. H85 temps will drop to around 4c over Lake Erie by the end of the day...so this should be just short of establishing any real response off Lake Erie. The cold advection will lead to a cooler day though...as max temps will range from the upper 50s over parts of the Southern Tier to the upper 60s across the North Country. Interestingly enough...these readings will STILL be above normal late October values. As a strong H25 jet digs into an already deep longwave trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night...a narrow shortwave ridge downstream will push across our forecast area. While this will keep the bulk of our region precipitation free...continued cold advection within a south to southwest flow could direct some nuisance lake effect rain showers over parts of the Niagara Frontier. Will continue to use low chc pops for that area only. As the aforementioned jet rounds the base of the longwave trough on Wednesday...it will become negatively tilted while making its way across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Negligible height falls with the trough and a lack of any strong jet dynamics will limit the potential for showers...although continued lake effect showers should still be in the place east-northeast of Lake Erie. On Thursday...the axis of the negatively tilted trough will push away from our region via the St Lawrence Valley. While the -2c air at H85 will keep some very minor lake effect rain showers in place east of both lakes...rising heights and increased subsidence will support fair dry weather elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The longwave trough over the center of the country will 'reload' Friday...as the next vigorous mid level disturbance will dive southwards across the northern plains. This will re-establish the longwave trough while the next (second) shot of colder air will pour southwards into the Lower 48. The leading edge of this next cold shot will follow a cold front that will extend south form a sub-1000mb low over the Upper Great Lakes. This front will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday...then is forecast to stall over our forecast area as it will become parallel to the mean H925-70 flow. Following a nice day of weather on Friday...this scenario will favor scattered showers for both days of the weekend. Looking further ahead towards the following week...a third shot of cold air will charge southwards...and this one will have the best chance of supporting our first flakes of the season across our forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR flight conditions to start the 06Z TAFS will remain across the region through at least 18Z. A deepening area of low pressure will track from the Ohio Valley through the Central Great Lakes today, while swinging a cold front across the region tonight. This front will bring a steady area of showers, with flight conditions deteriorating to MVFR (possible So. Tier IFR) late this afternoon and through tonight. Rain will taper off between 05Z to the west, and near 12Z to the east. In addition a strong LLJ up to 50 knots at 2K feet may produce some areas of LLWS across WNY tonight. Also the deepening area of low pressure will bring some gusty winds to the region, upwards to 30 knots. Outlook... Tuesday...MVFR in occasional rain early east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise MVFR/VFR. Wednesday and Thursday...Areas of MVFR with a chance of showers. Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... Modest southeasterlies late this evening will veer to southerly and increase to moderately brisk levels overnight and Monday out in advance of an approaching cold front...though given the offshore direction and stable temperature profiles...conditions across the New York waters of both lakes should remain below advisory levels. Monday night and Tuesday the cold front will cross the region from west to east...with periods of potentially advisory-worthy conditions possible at the east ends of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...THOMAS MARINE...JJR
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 4:37 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 63 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in New York, 2017Every wind advisory in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.