Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 32, NWS Buffalo, NY

November 7, 2017Genesee County, Monroe County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Nov 7, 2017, 2:21 AM EST for Genesee County, Monroe County, New York. It took effect at Nov 7, 2017, 6:41 AM EST. It was in force for 21 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 7, 2017, 2:21 AM EST (07:21 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 7, 2017, 6:41 AM EST
Expired
Nov 8, 2017, 4:09 AM EST
In force
21 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Genesee County, NY, Monroe County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Black Creek at Churchville (CHRN6). The gauge peaked at 6.32 ft at Nov 7, 2017, 3:00 PM EST.

actionminormoderatemajor46811/0711/0811/09
Action stage
5 ft
Minor stage
6 ft
Moderate stage
7 ft
Major stage
8 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04231000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

602 
WGUS41 KBUF 070721
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
221 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Flood Warning
for The following rivers in New York...

  Black Creek At Churchville

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC037-055-071321-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0032.171107T1800Z-171108T0900Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1800Z.171108T0000Z.171108T0300Z.NO/
221 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a 

* Flood warning for 
  the Black Creek At Churchville
* from this afternoon to late tonight.
* At 2 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  afternoon and crest near 6.1 feet this evening.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791 
      4312 7765                      

$$

TMA
6 follow-up statements
715 
WGUS81 KBUF 071144
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Oatka Creek At Garbutt
  Black Creek At Churchville
  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-037-063-121-071744-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T2242Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1642Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until this afternoon.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.2 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate Flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the creek will continue to fall...and is expected to 
  drop below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Moderate flood. Flooding along West Main 
  Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from 
  Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some 
  residential and commercial flooding possible.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810 
      4293 7817 4293 7832            

$$

NYC029-063-071743-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171107T2125Z-171109T0234Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171107T2125Z.171108T0600Z.171108T2034Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from this afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the creek is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this afternoon and crest near 12.9 feet late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage. Lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

NYC037-055-071743-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1424Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1200Z.171108T0824Z.UU/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...Flood warning extended until Wednesday morning...

The flood warning continues for
  The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.7 feet 
  this morning. 
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of 
  agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding 
  along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville. 
  Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from 
  Genesee River near Scottsville.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798 
      4297 7802 4302 7798            

$$

NYC037-055-071743-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0032.171107T1141Z-171108T0730Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1800Z.171108T0130Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Churchville
* from this morning to late tonight.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.2 feet 
  this afternoon. 
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791 
      4312 7765                      

$$

NYC029-037-071214-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
/WILN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
644 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning is cancelled for
  The Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville.
* At 6 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river crested below flood stage at 7.8 feet. The 
  river will Continue to fall to around 3.7 feet by Wednesday 
  morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875 
      4295 7865 4293 7865            

$$
327 
WGUS81 KBUF 071653
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...


  Oatka Creek At Garbutt
  Black Creek At Churchville
  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC037-055-072253-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1015Z.171108T1000Z.UU/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...Flood warning extended until Wednesday morning...

The flood warning continues for
  The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of 
  agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding 
  along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville. 
  Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from 
  Genesee River near Scottsville.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798 
      4297 7802 4302 7798            

$$

NYC037-055-072253-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-171108T1330Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1800Z.171108T0730Z.NO/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...Flood warning extended until Wednesday morning...

The flood warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Churchville
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 6.4 feet 
  this afternoon. 
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791 
      4312 7765                      

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-072242-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T2242Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1642Z.NO/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia
* until this afternoon.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Nonflood flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to 
  drop below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 9.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding in Batavia, 
  possibly impacting Kibbe Park, Walnut Street, and Law Street. 
  Flooding in rural areas of Alexander and the lowlands of the 
  Alabama Swamps with some road closures likely.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810 
      4293 7817 4293 7832            

$$

NYC029-063-072252-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171108T0810Z-171109T1520Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171108T0810Z.171108T1800Z.171109T0920Z.NO/
1153 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...Flood warning extended until Thursday morning...

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from late tonight to Thursday morning.
* At 11 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning and crest near 13.3 feet early Wednesday 
  afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood, some residential flooding 
  with widespread road closures in North Clarence, east into Newstead
  and Royalton. Water begins to back up into smaller creeks such as 
  Ransom, Black, Beeman, Gott, and Mud Creeks. Flooding in some low 
  lying areas along Tonawanda Creek Road, Rapids Road, and Wolcott 
  Road, with widespread farmland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$
847 
WGUS81 KBUF 071946
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New 
York...


  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Oatka Creek At Garbutt
  Black Creek At Churchville
  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC037-055-080146-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1015Z.171108T1000Z.UU/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 7.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread flooding of 
  agricultural lands below LeRoy. Significant residential flooding 
  along creek, especially in Mumford, Wheatland, and Scottsville. 
  Roadway flooding begins. Some backwater effects possible from 
  Genesee River near Scottsville.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798 
      4297 7802 4302 7798            

$$

NYC037-055-080146-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-171108T1330Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1930Z.171108T0730Z.NO/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Churchville
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791 
      4312 7765                      

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-072016-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-171107T2242Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.171106T1517Z.171107T0100Z.171107T1626Z.NO/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning is cancelled for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Batavia.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage late this morning and 
  will continue to fall to around 6.6 feet by Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 9.0 feet...Flood stage, some flooding in Batavia, 
  possibly impacting Kibbe Park, Walnut Street, and Law Street. 
  Flooding in rural areas of Alexander and the lowlands of the 
  Alabama Swamps with some road closures likely.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810 
      4293 7817 4293 7832            

$$

NYC029-063-080146-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171108T0810Z-171109T1520Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171108T0810Z.171108T1800Z.171109T0920Z.NO/
246 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from late tonight to Thursday morning.
* At 3 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning and crest near 13.3 feet early Wednesday 
  afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood, some residential flooding 
  with widespread road closures in North Clarence, east into Newstead
  and Royalton. Water begins to back up into smaller creeks such as 
  Ransom, Black, Beeman, Gott, and Mud Creeks. Flooding in some low 
  lying areas along Tonawanda Creek Road, Rapids Road, and Wolcott 
  Road, with widespread farmland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$
922 
WGUS81 KBUF 080140
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
840 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Oatka Creek At Garbutt
  Black Creek At Churchville
  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC037-055-080740-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1015Z.171108T1000Z.UU/
840 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Oatka Creek At Garbutt
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is falling now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
  land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798 
      4297 7802 4302 7798            

$$

NYC037-055-080740-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-171108T1330Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1930Z.171108T0730Z.NO/
840 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Churchville
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is falling now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791 
      4312 7765                      

$$

NYC029-063-080739-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171108T0810Z-171109T1520Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171108T0810Z.171108T1800Z.171109T0920Z.NO/
840 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from late tonight to Thursday morning.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.8 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning and crest near 13.3 feet early Wednesday 
  afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm
  areas along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda 
  Indian Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, 
  and Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

Church
150 
WGUS81 KBUF 080734
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New 
York...


  Oatka Creek At Garbutt

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...


  Black Creek At Churchville
  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC037-055-081327-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-171108T1327Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1930Z.171108T0727Z.NO/
234 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Churchville
* until this morning.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was 6.03 feet and slowly falling.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Non-flood flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is expected to drop below flood stage early
this morning.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791 
      4312 7765                      

$$

NYC029-063-081334-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171108T1108Z-171109T1612Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171108T1108Z.171108T1800Z.171109T1012Z.NO/
234 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

...Flood warning extended until Thursday morning...

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* from this morning to Thursday morning.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  morning and crest near 13.2 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood, some residential flooding 
  with widespread road closures in North Clarence, east into Newstead
  and Royalton. Water begins to back up into smaller creeks such as 
  Ransom, Black, Beeman, Gott, and Mud Creeks. Flooding in some low 
  lying areas along Tonawanda Creek Road, Rapids Road, and Wolcott 
  Road, with widespread farmland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

NYC037-055-080804-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-171108T1600Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.171106T1152Z.171107T1015Z.171108T0515Z.UU/
234 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

The flood warning is cancelled for
  The Oatka Creek At Garbutt.
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was 5.9 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and 
  will continue to fall to around 4.9 feet by Thursday morning.
* IMPACT...At 6.0 feet...Flood stage, general flooding of agricultural
  land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville and Garbutt.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798 
      4297 7802 4302 7798            

$$
287 
WGUS81 KBUF 080909
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
409 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Black Creek At Churchville

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-081509-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0031.171108T1116Z-171109T1612Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.171108T1116Z.171108T1800Z.171109T1012Z.NO/
409 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until Thursday morning.
* At 3 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  morning and crest near 13.2 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood, some residential flooding 
  with widespread road closures in North Clarence, east into Newstead
  and Royalton. Water begins to back up into smaller creeks such as 
  Ransom, Black, Beeman, Gott, and Mud Creeks. Flooding in some low 
  lying areas along Tonawanda Creek Road, Rapids Road, and Wolcott 
  Road, with widespread farmland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

NYC037-055-080939-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-171108T1327Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.171107T1000Z.171107T1930Z.171108T0730Z.NO/
409 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017

The flood warning is cancelled for
  The Black Creek At Churchville.
* At 4 AM Wednesday the stage was 5.9 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage early this morning and 
  will continue to fall to around 4.4 feet by Thursday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791 
      4312 7765                      

$$

Apffel

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 7, 12:45 AM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 7, 12:45 AM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1245 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a period of dry and cool weather tonight
through Thursday morning. A strong cold front will then bring rain
changing to snow showers late Thursday with much colder air expected
to close out the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IR satellite imagery displays a wealth of clouds lingering over
much of the region, both lake effect and upslope clouds on a
northerly flow. This moisture, under a steep inversion, will likely
maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies through the night.

High pressure will continue to build in from the Upper Midwest
tonight. Later tonight more widespread cloud cover shifts over our
region associated with a weak wave of low pressure moving across the
Southern Appalachians. Overall it will be a dry and cold night with
most overnight lows near or below freezing, with the coldest
temperatures across the interior North Country.

On Tuesday, the weak wave will shift from the southern Appalachians
into the Carolinas. Global models such as GFS/EC show some showers
extending north into Central PA with Mesoscale models such as
NAM/RGEM showing they might reach into the NY Southern Tier. The
HREF ensemble also shows the northern boundary to be central PA so
have discounted the NAM/RGEM and left a dry forecast with partly to
mostly cloudy skies associated with mid/high clouds from the wave.
850mb temps will continue to run -2C to -4C which will continue to
support some lower lake effect clouds along the lake shores. Cool
air aloft will support below normal surface temps which will only
rise into the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday night a weak wave will run along the frontal zone across the
Mid Atlantic States. Any precipitation associated with this wave
will remain well south of our area. There will be some mid/high
clouds during the evening, especially across the western Southern
Tier as upper level moisture associated with the frontal wave passes
by to our south. These clouds will slowly clear late Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning as the wave moves off the east coast. Some
lake effect clouds may also develop on weak low level northeast flow
along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara to Monroe
counties. Temperatures will be on the chilly side, with upper 20s to
lower 30s on the lake plains and mid 20s across the interior
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will provide mainly clear skies, although
temperatures will remain a little below average. Expect highs in the
mid to upper 40s Wednesday, and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
Wednesday night.

Thursday will start dry with the narrowing ridge of high pressure
still in place from the Ohio Valley to New England. Dry weather
should last through at least mid afternoon before the next system
arrives. A sharpening mid level trough will dig into the Great Lakes
Thursday afternoon and evening. This trough will drive a strong cold
front southeast across the area late Thursday afternoon or evening.
The 12Z GFS is fastest with the frontal timing arriving mid to late
afternoon, while the 12Z NAM is slowest with the front not arriving
until late evening. For now went with a compromise solution which is
close to the ECMWF timing.

Showers will develop along the cold front late Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario where
increasing lake induced instability will provide lake enhancement.
The frontal showers will be brief as the front rapidly moves
through. Very strong cold advection may change the frontal precip
over to snow before ending.

Temperatures take a nose dive Thursday night and Friday, with 850mb
temps bottoming out in the -16C to -18C range in the west and -18C
to -20C North Country. Such a cold airmass in November would
normally raise red flags for significant lake effect snow, however
in this case the short northwest fetch and exceptionally dry airmass
will be very detrimental to the lake effect process. Expect
widespread multiple bands of light snow showers southeast of the
lakes Thursday night and Friday, with some upstream help from
Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. This will produce spotty light
accumulations in many areas southeast of the lakes and across higher
terrain Thursday night and Friday.

This will be the coldest airmass of the season by far. With good
model agreement over the past day, continued to trend the
temperature forecast downward. Highs on Friday will likely remain in
the mid to upper 20s on the lake plains, and low to mid 20s
across higher terrain. A northwest breeze will produce a
noticeable wind chill as well, making it feel like mid winter,
at least for one day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong ridging builds in across the region in the wake of the cold
airmass. This will ensure dry weather Saturday as the surface high
drifts into New England. Then fast Pacific flow will move across the
region in a fairly zonal pattern. Models differ on the magnitude of
any shortwaves in the flow, but this will be enough for at least a
chance of rain or snow showers mention in the forecast for Sunday
into Monday. Otherwise temperatures will moderate through this
period after the coldest night of this young wintry season on Friday
night. Lows will likely bottom out near 20 in the lake plains, and
in the teens inland. Thereafter, highs will return into the 40s
Sunday into Monday, with lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 06Z TAF cycle there will still be quite a bit of
lingering lake effect clouds which will be near or just above 3k
feet. These will scatter out toward daybreak, however before
this happens mid-level clouds associated with a shortwave will
spread into the region from west to east. These clouds will be
well in the VFR category, however some light snow is possible
across the Western Southern Tier (JHW) as this wave passes late
this morning. Otherwise, skies will gradually clear out late
this afternoon with widespread VFR conditions during the evening
hours.

Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.
Thursday to Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain changing to snow
showers.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will then bring a period of lighter winds and
waves through much of Thursday. A strong cold front will then
bring increased winds and waves Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 6, 5:15 AM EST, 21 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
515 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-071015-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
515 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-071015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
515 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in New York, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.