Gale Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

921 
WHUS71 KBUF 071458
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
958 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

LEZ040-041-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T0300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
958 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST 
TO 35 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 8 TO 11 FEET 
WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
958 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST 
TO 35 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 10 TO 14 FEET 
WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
958 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST 
TO 35 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 9 TO 12 FEET 
WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
958 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
958 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-072300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
958 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/JJR

264 
WHUS71 KBUF 071948
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

LEZ040-041-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0007.170308T1500Z-170309T0300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TO 35
  KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND 9 TO 12 FEET 
  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0007.170308T1800Z-170309T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO 35
  KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* WAVES...2 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND 10 TO 14 FEET 
  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0007.170308T1500Z-170309T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TO 35
  KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND 9 TO 12 FEET 
  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0007.170308T1500Z-170309T0300Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TO 
  35 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-080400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0007.170308T1500Z-170309T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-080400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.170308T1500Z-170309T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0007.170308T1800Z-170309T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...AS HIGH AS 10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-080000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170308T0000Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
248 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR/HITCHCOCK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1232 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers will cross the region overnight and Tuesday
morning as a warm front moves north across the region. Rain showers
will continue into Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will cross the
region Tuesday evening. Very windy and drier conditions will follow
Wednesday in the wake of the frontal passage. Temperatures will
remain well above normal through Tuesday, before dropping back to
below normal later in the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Water vapor and IR satellite imagery show a large area of synoptic
ascent over Ohio, Pennsylvania and Lake Erie, demarcated by the
blossoming area of colder cloud tops. MRMS radar imagery shows an
area of widespread rain showers across Ohio to Pennsylvania within
this area of ascent. Surface and meso analysis shows this is within
an area of strong warm air and moisture advection advancing through
the Ohio Valley, that is set to traverse western NY and move into
central NY overnight and into Tuesday morning. The result will be a
widespread soaking rainfall across the area that focuses across
western NY between midnight and sunrise Tuesday, then shifts to
eastern Lake Ontario between sunrise and midday Tuesday. There is
still a very small chance for some sleet or freezing rain to mix in
at precipitation onset for the eastern Lake Ontario region late
tonight.

Temperatures tonight will remain very mild, in the upper 40s to low
50s, across western NY. Meanwhile, temperatures east of Lake Ontario
will rise overnight as the colder, drier airmass retreats with warm
advection and downslope southerly winds establishing across the
region.

Behind this initial push of warm air advection and moisture
advection, we will become established in the moisture rich warm
sector ahead an approaching cold front by late Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Rain will taper off and become much more widely scattered
across western NY for the morning hours. Would not even rule out
some breaks in sunshine, especially across the Genesee Valley,
during the day with strong downsloping in place. Temperatures could
soar across western NY and Genesee Valley during the day Tuesday for
locations that could break into sunshine, with a warm airmass to
about +8C, and downslope southerly winds. High temperatures will
likely push the upper 50s easily, and some warm spots (like the
upper Genesee Valley) into the low to mid 60s. Highs will top out in
the upper 40s to low 50s east of Lake Ontario where showers will
likely continue through the afternoon. More scattered showers will
then fill in across western NY by midday into the afternoon with pre-
frontal troughing. By late Tuesday, a strongly forced cold front
will cross the region, which will likely result in a solid line of
showers that will move across the region. Instability looks to very
limited per BUFKIT soundings ahead and along the front, and thus
have continued to exclude thunder from the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday evening a strong cold front will push from west to east
across the area. Strong low level convergence along the advancing
cold front will be supported aloft by strong ascent from DPVA ahead
of the approaching mid level trough and 120+ knot low level jet. The
cold front will produce one more period of rain showers moving from
west to east across the area during the evening. East of Lake
Ontario, showers may last a little longer with convergence and warm
advection initially early in the evening on the nose of a low level
jet, followed by the cold frontal showers. There does not appear to
be enough instability to support any chance of thunder with
Showalter Index and Lifted Index staying well above 0C.

The rain will end quickly from west to east overnight with the
passage of the cold front. A sharp mid level dry slot will bring
clearing skies from west to east overnight.

On Wednesday a deep mid level trough will advance slowly east across
Hudson Bay with the base of the trough moving east across the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a strong 970mb low will move across far
northern Ontario province to Hudson Bay. Our region will spend most
of the day in a mid level dry slot. The one exception will be with
the passage of a sharp mid level shortwave, moving through Western
NY in the morning and reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by
midday. This feature will be moisture starved, but should have
enough ascent to produce a brief period of increased cloud cover and
perhaps a few scattered light showers. Outside of this, there should
be at least partial sunshine at times in the dry slot.

The main concern for Wednesday and Wednesday evening will be strong
winds. The surface low track does not match our typical high wind
event climatology, with the low displaced far to the north of the
area over Hudson Bay. In this case however, the low is strong and
has a very broad circulation, and will support a 55-60 knots of low
level flow in the 2-4 thousand foot layer Wednesday afternoon and
early evening. The GFS shows a decent tropopause fold crossing
Western NY Wednesday afternoon, which often supports steeper lapse
rates and deeper mixing. Mixing will be further enhanced by sunshine
and weak cold advection. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit profiles show
sufficient lapse rates and mixing during the afternoon to tap into
the stronger winds aloft, with gusts of 60 mph possible in the
typically windier locations from the Lake Erie shore northeast
across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester, where channeling down Lake
Erie enhances wind gusts. With this in mind, we will go with a High
Wind Watch for areas northeast of Lake Erie. For the rest of the
area, wind gusts will not be as strong, but advisory criteria gusts
of 45-50 mph cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Winds will diminish overnight Wednesday night as the low level jet
diminishes, although it will remain breezy right through Thursday.

Weak shortwaves rotating through the base of the mid level trough
along with wrap around moisture may support a few light snow showers
mainly east of Lake Ontario Wednesday night. It will also become
cold enough for a lake response later Wednesday night and Thursday.
Lake Ontario looks more favorable with better available synoptic
scale moisture, with relatively light snow showers southeast and
east of the lake with minor accumulations. Lake Erie looks less
favorable with drier air aloft, but still may squeeze out a few
light snow showers.

Thursday night and Friday the past few runs of the GFS and ECMWF
have trended south with a clipper shortwave and associated mid level
trough. The latest 12Z runs keep the snow associated with this
feature well south of our area across PA, with cold northwest flow
only supporting a few light snow showers southeast of the lakes from
weak lake effect.

As far as temperatures go, the trend will be notably downward
through the second half of the week. Wednesday will still be on the
warm side with mid to upper 40s across Western NY and lower 50s
farther east. By Thursday highs will be back in the 30s, with upper
20s to lower 30s by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Much like last weekend, this coming weekend will see a return to
much colder temperatures across the region as arctic air surges
south across the Great lakes and Midwest behind the deep upper level
low centered over Quebec. Expect temperatures to drop into the
single digits across many locations Friday night, with breezy
northwest winds likely producing sub-zero wind chills once again.
Temperatures Saturday will only climb into the teens to low 20s with
some moderation on Sunday as the upper level flow becomes more
zonal...allowing for highs in the 20s to around 30.

Current guidance indicates that below-average temperatures should
persist into the early part of next week as a cutoff high over the
Bering Sea will aid in maintaining a cross-polar flow of Siberian
air across Canada and into the Great Lakes. This pattern may start
to break down Tuesday, allowing for a resurgence of more mild,
Pacific-based airmass northwards across the county by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A widespread area of rain showers will cross western NY early this
morning, bringing widespread MVFR across lower elevations, and IFR
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier (JHW). Rain will
taper off across WNY by mid-morning, while moving into the North
Country. This will bring MVFR conditions to ART for much of the day.
A break in the rainfall across western NY will allow for a brief
break to VFR conditions for the southerly downslope prone site
(BUF,IAG and especially ROC). Scattered showers will redevelop
across western NY by the afternoon, before a solid line of showers
moves across the region from west to east Tuesday evening. More MVFR
conditions will be common with those afternoon and evening showers,
with potential more IFR at JHW.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Very windy VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow
showers.
Saturday...VFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southeast winds will increase across the region tonight and
Tuesday ahead of a cold front moving into the western Great Lakes.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Lake Erie for tonight
and Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisories for Lake Ontario for the
day on Tuesday. The cold front will sweep east across the area
Tuesday evening. Winds will subside for the Tuesday night period
behind the cold front, then strong southwesterly to westerly winds
will develop, with higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions (low
chance Gale conditions) from Wednesday through the first half of
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM
         EST this evening for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         this evening for LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

NYZ004>008-013-014-020-021-071945-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
231 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong winds are possible on Wednesday as a strong area of low
pressure moves across far northern Ontario and Quebec. Southwest
winds will increase through the day, peaking in the afternoon and
evening as they turn more westerly. Wind gusts may exceed 45 mph at
times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-071945-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
231 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-071945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
231 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong winds are possible on Wednesday as a strong area of low
pressure moves across far northern Ontario and Quebec. Southwest
winds will increase through the day, peaking in the afternoon and
evening as they turn more westerly. Winds may approach gale force on
Lakes Erie and Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

HITCHCOCK