Alert archive / New York / Freezing Rain Advisories in 2017

Freezing Rain Advisory 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 7, 201714 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this freezing rain advisory at Feb 7, 2017, 5:56 AM EST for 14 counties in New York. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 7, 2017, 5:56 AM EST (10:56 UTC)
Expired
Feb 7, 2017, 6:37 PM EST
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-02-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-02-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 304 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1200 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
304 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
470 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

263 
WWUS41 KBUF 071056
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
556 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-071500-
/O.NEW.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.170207T1056Z-170207T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
556 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Freezing
Rain Advisory...which is in effect until 10 AM EST this morning.

* LOCATIONS...Western and North-Central New York. Freezing rain
  will be patchy in coverage.

* TIMING...Through late this morning.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A trace to a few hundredths of an inch.

* IMPACTS...Patchy freezing rain will produce localized icy
  patches on untreated roads and pavement, resulting in hazardous
  traveling conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Rain Advisory is issued when icing is expected in the
affected areas, but not enough to disrupt travel or damage trees
and power lines. Instead, patches of ice will cause slick spots
on roadways and sidewalks. Walking and driving could therefore be
difficult, but not impossible.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report ice accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-071900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.170207T1300Z-170208T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
556 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. Greatest impact in the
  Saint Lawrence Valley and Black River Valley.

* TIMING...From early this morning through late this evening.

* HAZARDS...Sleet and freezing rain.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Up to one quarter of an inch today...leading 
  to storm totals of up to one quarter of an inch.

* IMPACTS...Ice accumulations on untreated surfaces will cause
  slick travel conditions. The combination of ice accumulations
  and increasing winds Tuesday evening may cause some downed tree
  limbs and isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
107 
WWUS41 KBUF 071438
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
938 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

NYZ019>021-085-071545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170207T1500Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
938 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the
Freezing Rain Advisory.

Temperatures have warmed above freezing this morning. 

$$

NYZ010>014-071800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170207T1800Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
938 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston and
  Ontario counties.

* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A few hundredths of an inch today.

* IMPACTS...Freezing rain will produce localized icy patches on 
untreated roads and pavement, resulting in hazardous traveling 
conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Rain Advisory is issued when icing is expected in the
affected areas, but not enough to disrupt travel or damage trees
and power lines. Instead, patches of ice will cause slick spots
on roadways and sidewalks. Walking and driving could therefore be
difficult, but not impossible.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report ice accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ001>006-072100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, and Oswego
938 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Counties along the Southern Lake Ontario shoreline.

* TIMING...Through late this afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A few hundredths of an inch today.

* IMPACTS...Freezing rain will produce localized icy patches on 
untreated roads and pavement, resulting in hazardous traveling 
conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Rain Advisory is issued when icing is expected in the
affected areas, but not enough to disrupt travel or damage trees
and power lines. Instead, patches of ice will cause slick spots
on roadways and sidewalks. Walking and driving could therefore be
difficult, but not impossible.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report ice accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-072245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170208T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
938 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. Greatest impact in 
  the Saint Lawrence Valley and Black River Valley.

* TIMING...Through late this evening.

* HAZARDS...Freezing rain and sleet.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Up to one quarter of an inch of ice today and a
  few hundredths of an inch of ice this evening. Little or no
  sleet accumulation.

* IMPACTS...Ice accumulations on untreated surfaces will cause 
  slick travel conditions. The combination of ice accumulations 
  and increasing winds Tuesday evening may cause some downed 
  tree limbs and isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

Thomas
454 
WWUS41 KBUF 071757
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1257 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

NYZ010>014-071900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170207T1800Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
1257 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the
Freezing Rain Advisory.

Surface temperatures will continue to rise the remainder of the 
afternoon and evening hours ahead of a cold front tonight. 

$$

NYZ001>006-072100-
/O.CON.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170207T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, and Oswego
1257 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Counties along the Southern Lake Ontario shoreline.

* TIMING...Through late this afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A few hundredths of an inch this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Freezing rain will produce localized icy patches on 
  untreated roads and pavement, resulting in hazardous traveling 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Rain Advisory is issued when icing is expected in the
affected areas, but not enough to disrupt travel or damage trees
and power lines. Instead, patches of ice will cause slick spots
on roadways and sidewalks. Walking and driving could therefore be
difficult, but not impossible.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report ice accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-080200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170208T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1257 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. Greatest impact in 
  the Saint Lawrence Valley and Black River Valley.

* TIMING...Through late this evening.

* HAZARDS...Freezing rain and sleet.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Up to one quarter of an inch this afternoon and
  a few hundredths of an inch this evening. Little or no sleet
  accumulation.

* IMPACTS...Ice accumulations on untreated surfaces will cause 
  slick travel conditions. The combination of ice accumulations 
  and increasing winds Tuesday evening may cause some downed 
  tree limbs and isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

Thomas
497 
WWUS41 KBUF 071952
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
252 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

NYZ001>006-080000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170208T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, and Oswego
252 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Counties along the Southern Lake Ontario shoreline.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A few hundredths of an inch this afternoon and 
  a few hundredths of an inch tonight.

* IMPACTS...Freezing rain will produce localized icy patches on
  bridges, overpasses, and ramps as well as untreated roads and 
pavement, resulting in hazardous traveling conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Rain Advisory is issued when icing is expected in the
affected areas, but not enough to disrupt travel or damage trees
and power lines. Instead, patches of ice will cause slick spots
on roadways and sidewalks. Walking and driving could therefore be
difficult, but not impossible.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report ice accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-080300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170208T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
252 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. Greatest impact in 
  the Saint Lawrence Valley and Black River Valley.

* TIMING...Through late this evening.

* HAZARDS...Freezing rain and sleet.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A tenth to a quarter of an inch of ice
  accumulation through the evening. Little or no sleet
  accumulation. 

* IMPACTS...Ice accumulations on untreated surfaces will cause 
  slick travel conditions. The combination of ice accumulations 
  and increasing winds Tuesday evening may cause some downed 
  tree limbs and isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

Thomas
444 
WWUS41 KBUF 072337
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
637 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

NYZ001>006-080045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170208T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, and Oswego
637 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the
Freezing Rain Advisory.

$$

NYZ007-008-080300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170208T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
637 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis Counties. Greatest impact in 
  the Saint Lawrence Valley and Black River Valley.

* TIMING...Through late this evening. Temperatures will rise
  rapidly above freezing late this evening.

* HAZARDS...Freezing rain.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional tenth of an inch of ice
  accumulation across far northern portions of Jefferson county,
  and the Tug Hill this evening.

* IMPACTS...Ice accumulations on untreated surfaces will cause 
  slick travel conditions. The combination of ice accumulations 
  and increasing winds Tuesday evening may cause some downed 
  tree limbs and isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

Apffel

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this freezing rain advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this freezing rain advisory went out at Feb 7, 5:10 AM EST, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 5:10 AM EST, 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
510 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An incoming area of low pressure will bring a widespread rain to all
areas today which will start as a wintry mix across the North
Country. Temperatures on today will warm to the mid and upper 40s
before a cold front crosses the forecast area late tonight into
Wednesday morning bringing gusty winds with below normal
temperatures and lake effect in its wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure over the Midwest states will shift northeast into
southern Ontario and southern Quebec through tonight while slowly
strengthening. A surface warm front lifting across the Ohio Valley
will shift into western NY this morning then across central NY into
the North Country through today. KBUF radar show some leading
scattered rain showers shifting across WNY just ahead of the warm
front. East of Lake Ontario, KTYX radar shows thin area of light
snow over the North Country which will continue to shift northeast
out of the area.

The warm front will bring an abundance of moisture with it as it
shifts northeast across the region. NAEFS Mean PWats are running 4
Standard Deviations above normal. Most areas will see a steady rain
for a good portion of the day before rain tapers off during this
evening. Temperature profiles are such that a mix of snow/sleet and
freezing rain will occur across Jefferson and Lewis counties this
afternoon before changing over to plain rain. Total QPF through
tonight will run between a third of an inch up to around one inch
with this max value expected to occur on the top of the Tug Hill.
Concerning accumulating ice in the North Country, there will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch of ice mainly along the
Saint Lawrence Valley where sub-freezing temperatures will hold
longest. A Winter Weather Advisory runs from 8am-10pm today for
Jefferson and Lewis counties. Temperatures will reach into the low
50s by this evening across western NY and the Finger Lakes behind
the warm front except for portions of the Eastern Lake Ontario area
which will struggle to reach 40 under a persistent northeast flow
most of the day. Dewpoints surging into the 40s will overspread
areas with snowpack and bring about a risk for patchy fog through
this evening. These warmer temperatures and rainfall are being
closely watched for flooding concerns. This has been further
addressed in the Hydrology section below.

Tonight, the low will pass north of New York with a sharp cold front
crossing western and central New York after midnight. The track and
strengthening of the cutter-type low along with a 50+ knot low level
jet is favorable for high winds based on local research however a
strong inversion will keep much of these higher end winds elevated
off the surface until the front arrives. The front, identified by a
wind shift and region of surface pressure rises will help to steepen
low level lapse rates which will allow some of the tail edge of the
low level jet to mix to the surface. The lack of stronger winds
aloft in the wake of the front has lead to preference of a wind
advisory over a high wind warning despite the favorable low track.
Wind gusts of 50-55mph will be possible along a corridor from the
western Southern Tier to the Niagara Frontier including Buffalo and
east across Rochester to Wayne county. Models also indicate that
gusts to 50mph will be possible across Jefferson county. Have left
the upper Genesee Valley and southeast of Lake Ontario regions out
of the advisory due to lower confidence of the inland extent of the
gusts from the lake shore but these areas could still see some gusts
of 30-45mph. Very mild temperatures early in the evening will
sharply drop back into the 30s with lingering rain showers mixing
back with some non-accumulating snow showers toward daybreak
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of Tuesday's storm system, Wednesday will be markedly
quieter across the forecast area. While it will still be breezy,
particularly early in the day, as the pressure gradient will remain
reasonably tight in between the departing low and high pressure to
the west over the upper Great Lakes, it should otherwise remain
largely dry through much of the day, as temperatures aloft will be
slow to fall to the critical -11C sfc-850mb temperature spread
needed for lake effect precipitation. Nonetheless, temperatures will
gradually fall from highs in the mid to upper 30s to below freezing
by the end of the day, due to ongoing cold advection.

As we move into Wednesday evening, temperatures aloft will cool
enough to permit the development of lake effect snow, however the
combination of veering northerly flow that will shorten the cross-
lake fetch and increasing shear aloft will likely hamper activity
Wednesday night. Conditions become more favorable for lake effect on
Thursday as a potent shortwave crosses the Great Lakes,
providing synoptic enhancement, while backing northwesterly
flow into a strong coastal low moving off the Eastern Seaboard
may allow for upstream connections to Lake Huron/Georgian Bay.
Should these connections materialize, we may see advisory level
accumulations of a few inches across the Chautauqua Ridge and
south of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
However, given the complexity of the unfolding scenario, this is
hardly a sure thing this far out. With the region firmly in the
grip of upper level troughing, lows Wed night will run int he
teens to around 20, with highs Thursday only topping out in the
low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Modest lake effect snow showers may linger into Friday southeast of
Lake Ontario before flow backs to the southeast ahead of our next
synoptic system. Global models are in reasonably good agreement on
taking this clipper low across the Great Lakes from the northwest
Friday night into Saturday. Warm advection/isentropic upglide ahead
of the low center may end up producing a broad area of light
snow across the forecast area from late Friday afternoon into
Friday night. There is a potential that precip may at least mix
with rain across Western New York towards the end of the event
late Friday night into Saturday, as the clipper passes by and an
influx of mild Pacific-sourced air washes across the region.
This will serve to push temperatures back above average for the
weekend - the contrast between Friday's highs in the 20s and
Saturday's expected highs that will run close to 40 in many
areas will be quite marked.

It will remain an active period for the region as we move through
the rest of the weekend and into next week, thanks to a progressive
upper-level pattern. A mid-continental surface low is currently
progged to get picked up and enhanced by a northern stream upper
level shortwave as it is shunted across the lower Great Lakes
on Sunday. This will allow temperatures to warm even further
into the 40s Sunday, while bringing a decent chance for more
rainfall to the forecast area.

Temperatures should fall back closer to normal in the wake of
this system on Monday, as the aforementioned upper level trough
crosses the region. The return to cooler temperatures may have a
little more staying power as we look ahead deeper into next
week, as models are currently all favoring high-amplitude
ridging across the Western U.S., with downstream troughing
across the eastern half of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR cigs this morning except for the western Southern Tier
where IFR has developed at KJHW as a warm front overspreads western
NY. This front will shift from western NY east across central and
northern NY with rain today. For KART, expect precipitation to start
as a short window of some mixed wintry snow/sleet/freeing rain on
the leading edge of the precipitation mainly 15-21z before changing
over to plain rain. There will be a strong low level jet that will
bring Low Level Wind Shear to all sites this afternoon/evening
behind the warm front which will be possible through the first half
of tonight. A strong cold front will then cross our region around or
after Midnight with westerly gusts possibly over 40kts and some
scattered rain and snow showers.

Outlook...
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR...rain changing to snow. Strong
winds possible.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR. Lake effect snow east of the
lakes.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow east of Lake Ontario.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of mixed rain and snow showers across
entire CWA.

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening storm system will track just north of the eastern
Great Lakes today and tonight bringing increasingly gusty winds and
building waves. Have issued small craft advisories for the nearshore
waters lasting into Wednesday. The strongest winds and gusts will
come tonight as a cold front crosses our region. Winds should hold
just short of gale force on Lake Ontario.

Winds across the Lower Great lakes will subside Wednesday night
and Thursday as expansive high pressure will build east from the
Plains.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Strong warm advection taking place across the region will boost
temperatures to near 50F across Western New York by this
evening. This will push thawing degrees hours close to 300,
allowing the thin ice cover built up on areas streams and creeks
to break up. This combined with the widespread rainfall of a
half to one inch expected through tonight will melt most if not
all of the snowpack in the western Southern Tier, raising water
levels on area creeks and rivers to near action stage. However,
given that the water equivalent in this snowpack is only in the
1-2" range per NOHRSC analysis, widespread flooding is not
expected at this time. Latest NAEFS MMEFS ensemble forecasts
keep all the Buffalo area creeks below flood stage, suggesting
it would take a much greater amount of rain to produce flooding,
unless ice jam issues develop.

Meanwhile across the North Country, the impressive snowpack on the
Tug Hill should be much better able to absorb incoming
precipitation, and will also be unlikely to melt off given its
current depth. Given that the period of time above freezing across
the North Country is also only expected to be about 18 hours in
length, along with smaller departures from freezing compared to the
remainder of the region flooding is not expected to be an issue
there at this time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ007-008.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ007.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ001>004-010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
         Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
         Wednesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...AA/SMITH
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 7, 5:17 AM EST, 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
517 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

NYZ008-081030-
Lewis-
517 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-081030-
Jefferson-
517 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-006-013-014-021-081030-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
517 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>004-010>012-019-020-085-081030-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
517 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-081030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
517 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie...Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 7, 3:44 AM ESTWind AdvisoryBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Monroe and 4 more27 hr

Nearby

Freezing Rain Advisories in New York, 2017Every freezing rain advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.