River Flood Warning 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

722 
WGUS83 KAPX 241438
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1038 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Au Sable River near Red Oak AFFECTING Oscoda County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.Widespread rainfall of 2 to 6 inches has fallen across northern
lower Michigan since Sunday afternoon. Rivers will continue to
quickly rise in response, and multiple rivers are likely to 
exceed flood stage beginning later today. Flood stages may be
exceeded for several days in some locations.

The river forecasts have been revised to indicate a higher crest
on the Rifle River near Sterling. This river is now forecast to
crest just below moderate flooding.

We continue to forecast a record crest on the Au Sable River near
Red Oak. This introduces extra uncertainty to the forecast crest
at that location.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation this evening, or as new 
information becomes available.

&&

MIC135-250238-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0009.171024T1645Z-171026T0300Z/
/RDOM4.3.ER.171024T1645Z.171025T0000Z.171025T2100Z.NR/
1038 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Au Sable River near Red Oak.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  7:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 7.3 feet by this evening.the river will fall below 
  flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Au Sable River
  Red Oak            7    6.6  Tue 08 AM       7.3     6.8     6.3


&&


LAT...LON 4471 8413 4466 8413 4461 8414 4461 8432
      4468 8430 4471 8427             



$$

MIC011-250238-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0007.171024T1428Z-171026T2254Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.171024T1346Z.171025T1200Z.171026T1654Z.NO/
1038 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue
  to rise to near 10.7 feet by tomorrow morning.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.9  Tue 09 AM      10.2     8.1     4.6


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-250238-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0008.171024T1912Z-171027T1600Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.171024T1912Z.171025T1800Z.171027T1000Z.NR/
1038 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* from this afternoon to Friday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 15.9 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   14.5  Tue 09 AM      15.6    15.9    15.2


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

JZ

524 
WGUS83 KAPX 250222
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1022 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.Widespread rainfall of 2 to 6 inches has fallen across northern
lower Michigan since Sunday afternoon. Both the Rifle River near
Sterling and the Manistee River near Sherman have now exceeded
flood stage, and will likely remain above flood stage for the next
few days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation later Wednesday morning, or as new 
information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-251422-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171027T0900Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.171024T1400Z.171026T0000Z.171027T0300Z.NO/
1022 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until late Thursday night.
* At  9:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 7.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.4 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    7.2  Tue 09 PM       9.1     5.5     4.0


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-251422-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-171028T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.171024T2330Z.171026T0000Z.171027T1800Z.NR/
1022 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until Friday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.9 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.1  Tue 09 PM      15.9    15.5    14.4


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

369 
WGUS83 KAPX 251840
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
240 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.Both the Rifle River near Sterling and the Manistee River near Sherman 
have now exceeded flood stage. Rainfall rates were much lower today. 
This will allow the rivers to crest Thursday and then river levels will 
begin to fall. Little or no rain is expected overnight and Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation...Insert time here!!...as new 
information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-260640-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171026T1912Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.171024T1400Z.171025T0815Z.171026T1312Z.NO/
240 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    7.3  Wed 02 PM       6.5     4.3     3.2


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-260640-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-171028T0900Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.171024T2330Z.171026T0600Z.171028T0300Z.NR/
240 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until late Friday night.
* At  1:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.7 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Friday before midnight.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.5  Wed 01 PM      15.7    15.6    14.9


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

057 
WGUS83 KAPX 260157
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
957 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Au Sable River near Red Oak AFFECTING Oscoda County

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County
  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County

.Rivers are cresting after the recent heavy rainfall event...and are
expected to continue to fall through Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation Thursday morning as new information
becomes available.

&&

MIC011-261357-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171026T1415Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.171024T1400Z.171025T0815Z.171026T0815Z.NO/
957 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday morning.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.8  Wed 09 PM       3.8     3.2     3.1

&&

LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             

$$

MIC165-261357-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-171027T1800Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.171024T2330Z.171026T0600Z.171027T1200Z.NR/
957 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  9:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 15.5 feet tonight. The river will
  fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding of property and homes adjacent to 
  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and Chippewa
  Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N 11 Road between W 14 
  Road and W 16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   15.5  Wed 09 PM      15.1    14.8    13.8

&&

LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       

$$

MIC135-260227-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-171026T0300Z/
/RDOM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
957 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Au Sable River near Red Oak.
* At  7:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 6.4 feet. The 
  river will fall to 5.2 feet by .
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Au Sable River
  Red Oak            7    5.8  Wed 08 PM       5.3     5.0     4.7


&&


LAT...LON 4471 8413 4466 8413 4461 8414 4461 8432
      4468 8430 4471 8427             


$$

JPB

862 
WGUS83 KAPX 261304
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
904 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The river has fallen below flood stage and will continue to fall through the rest of the day.

&&

MIC011-261334-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171026T1415Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.171024T1400Z.171025T0815Z.171026T1130Z.NO/
904 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* At  8:30 AM Thursday the stage was 5.9 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  7:30 AM Thursday.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 3.6 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.9  Thu 08 AM       3.8     3.2     3.1


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
930 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Large area of deformation/fgen driven rain continues to pinwheel
north across the area, as low pressure responsible for such
continues to deepen just southwest of Saginaw Bay. This deepen
process will continue, with the low eventually bottoming out near
980mbs as it slows across eastern upper Michigan by sunrise.
Attendant comma-head rains will gradually pivot more northwest
with time as trowal matures. Heaviest additional rains, exceeding
an inch in places, will focus across northwest lower Michigan and
eastern upper Michigan with time. Heaviest rains this evening
(several reports of over 2 inches) have occurred generally along
and southeast of a line extending from Cadillac to Alpena. No
reports of any significant flooding in these areas as of yet, and
as mentioned, heaviest rains will gradually pivot northwest out of
this region. River response, however, already well underway, as
noted by just released river forecast center products. River flood
warnings will be forthcoming for a few rivers shortly, with
others expected to near flood stage by later today/tonight. Plan
is to continue with inherited areal flood watch, with additional
rains perhaps resulting in some minor flooding outside the river
basins.

Winds will ramp up quickly as the low passes/deepens. Inherited
marine and land-based headlines will remain.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...Heavy rain and becoming windy...

High impact weather potential...heavy rain tonight, very slowly
tapering in intensity overnight into Tuesday. Windy conditions
developing, especially along nw lower MI coast.

Low pressure systems are in far ne IN and just ne of MN. The IN
low has begun to rapidly deepen, and will pivot ne, n, and nw-
ward, ending up over eastern upper MI on Tuesday. It will absorb
the other low in the process of bombing out. Rain continues across
much of northern MI, with an earlier eastward wobble to the back
edge of the rain shield now returning westward. Precip intensity
is increasing, especially in central lower MI, southern Lake MI,
and surrounding locales. Precip and wind trends are the main
concern, in what is a busy forecast.

Heaviest rain for the entire event will play out over the next 12
hours or so. Surface low lifts from IN, skirting the ne lower MI
coastline. Heaviest rain will fall just to the left of the track of
this low, where 850-700mb deformation and fgen are both maximized.
Ongoing enhancement along the outer edge of the rain shield (seen
from Chicago to near Ludington) should reform eastward as surface
low deepens more rapidly, and forcing becomes more concentrated
somewhat closer to its track. This process already appears to be
underway. Good agreement among Nam/Rap in bringing highest QPF to
an HTL-Rogers-Drummond axis, with 2.0-2.5 inches from now thru
06z. The largest contribution from warm advection ends toward or
just after then, as the low curls nw toward eastern upper.
However, the lingering trowal will maintain healthy (though not as
heavy) precip rates for quite some time; thru much of Tuesday in
nw lower/eastern upper MI. Very late tonight, and lasting into
Tuesday precip coverage will decrease in ne lower as low-level
downsloping and (for a time) subtle mid- level dry slotting take a
toll.

Flood watch will not be altered.

Winds will increase rapidly in some areas as soon as late evening,
with the bombing out low heading toward Huron. Nnw winds on
northern Lake MI into nw lower MI will be the 1st to kick in. Per
coord with GRR/LOT, potential for 45mph gusts very quickly
develops in Gd Trav region up to Emmet Co toward or just after
midnight. Wind core further intensifies and migrates sw-ward
during the overnight and into Tuesday. Threat for 45mph gusts
develops down toward MBL/Frankfort very late tonight. All this
persists into the Wed night period. Wind advisory already posted
for the nw lower MI coast. Winds will taper will eastward extent
for exposure reasons. Meanwhile, as the low hovers over eastern
upper MI, they will see widely variable winds there: gusty
southerlies by Drummond, easterlies at Whitefish Pt, nw at Curtis.

Min temps tonight 40s. Max temps Tuesday upper 40s to mid 50s,
coolest CAD area and warmest east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...Windy and rain Tuesday night/Diminishing Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Gusty winds Tuesday night.

Pattern Forecast: Progressive five wave hemispheric pattern in place
with a bit of a split flow long wave trough over central North
America.  A pair of short wave troughs were moving through the mean
trough position this afternoon...one over the mid Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys...another was digging southeast across the
northern Plains and into the Midwest along with a nearly 160kt jet
core.  Surface reflections of these features can be found in a
1006mb low over southwest Indiana (attached to a cold/stationary
front that passed through northern Michigan Sunday afternoon/
evening)...and a 1002mb low along the Minnesota/Manitoba border.

Phasing of these short wave troughs will result in a decent closed
low encompassing the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley Tuesday and
serve to sharpen/amplify the mean trough.  Meanwhile...progressive
Pacific pattern (driven in no small part by the remnants of Typhoon
"Lan" getting injected into the main westerlies) will drive another
digging short wave trough into the nation's midsection during the
latter half of the week...allowing the long wave trough axis to
retrograde a bit.  Surface pattern responds to this first by
deepening the surface low over Indiana as it lifts into Michigan
tonight...and into the Straits region Tuesday morning.  This low
will then spin slowly across the region during the day Tuesday
before filling and lifting out to the northeast Wednesday.  Then a
bit of a lull heading into Thursday while the next surface low/cold
push moves into the upper Midwest.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Strong wind gusts Tuesday night.

Surface low expected to be in the eastern U.P. vicinity Tuesday
evening...probably in the neighborhood of 987-988mb.  Strongest
gradient expected around the western semicircle of the system...so
as the low pushes east expect gusty winds to continue...at least 25-
35mph gusts with some 40+mph winds along the northwest Lower Lake
Michigan shoreline counties (and through the Straits as well).  So
Wind Advisory for these areas will be stretched through at least
into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday...after which wind gusts will
diminish.

Deep moisture will continue to wrap around this system Tuesday
night...along with low level cold air (925mb temperatures getting
down into the 0c range) which will steepen low level lapse rates and
allow for lake enhancement to add to precipitation probabilities.
Surface based freezing layers will be eroding...so potential there
for some snow to mix in away from the lakes and particularly in the
higher terrain of northern Lower.

Showers will continue into Wednesday but with a diminishing trend
into Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Long range models agree with a developing low pressure system over
the Great Lakes region and a trailing deep long wave trough that
will provide chances of rain and snow for the forecast area through
the extended period. Snow chances will be during the overnight and
early morning hours as temperatures drop into the upper 20s to low
30s. Daytime temperatures will be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Low pressure will continue to strengthen overnight as it move
north across the area. This low will essentially become stationary
across the tip of the mitt/eastern upper Michigan on Tuesday.
Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vis will be the result through this taf
duration. Bands of light to moderate rain will continue this
evening across the area, with the focus for steadier rains
becoming confined to northwest lower Michigan with time. Surface
winds will become quite gusty from the west and southwest on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Low pressure deepens rapidly as it curves from IN to the ne lower
MI coastline, to eastern upper MI by Tue morning. It will stall
there on Tuesday. A variety of marine headlines are already out;
these will be looked at again over the next hour. Will give
consideration up upgrades to storms along parts of the nw lower MI
coast, as well as upgrades to gales in other waters.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning for MIZ008-015>036-041-042.
     WIND ADVISORY until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016-019>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY from 5 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ025-
     031.
LH...GALE WARNING until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
406 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-241200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
406 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Additional heavy rain will occur through tonight across much of
northern lower and extreme eastern upper Michigan. See the ongoing
flood watch for details.

Windy conditions will develop tonight along the northwest lower
Michigan coastline. See the ongoing wind advisory for details.

Gale force wind gusts will develop on Lake Michigan tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Rainfall will decrease in intensity on Tuesday. However, some
flooding will remain possible across portions of northern
Michigan. The Rifle River near Sterling, and the Manistee River
near Sherman, may exceed flood stage this week.

Windy conditions will persist along the northwest lower Michigan
coastline into Tuesday night.

Gale force gusts will continue into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
732 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 S GRAYLING           44.51N 84.71W
10/23/2017  M3.50 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   SPOTTER

            36 HR STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION.

&&

MBOGUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
734 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N WELLSTON            44.26N 85.95W
10/23/2017  M2.68 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            36 HR STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION.

&&

MBOGUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
735 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       AU GRES                 44.04N 83.69W
10/23/2017  M1.50 INCH       ARENAC             MI   SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL.

&&

MBOGUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
811 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE ROSCOMMON         44.47N 84.57W
10/23/2017  M3.35 INCH       ROSCOMMON          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RSCM4, 2 SE ROSCOMMON. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0744 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW LEWISTON          44.89N 84.36W
10/23/2017  M3.30 INCH       MONTMORENCY        MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AU550, 2 W LEWISTON. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0712 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW HARTWICK PINES ST 44.72N 84.71W
10/23/2017  M2.98 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GYGM4, 2 SSW HARTWICK PINES
            STATE PARK. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN
            EVENT WAS 48 HOURS.

0735 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW WELLSTON          44.23N 85.96W
10/23/2017  M2.66 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E0269, WELLSTON. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0712 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW ALGER             44.13N 84.12W
10/23/2017  M2.57 INCH       ARENAC             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AGRM4, ALGER. THE DURATION
            OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0751 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE GAYLORD           44.99N 84.66W
10/23/2017  M2.53 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION D3024, 2 SSE GAYLORD. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0715 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
10/23/2017  M2.51 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GLRM4R2, 1 WNW WATERS. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0753 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ROGERS CITY             45.42N 83.81W
10/23/2017  M2.44 INCH       PRESQUE ISLE       MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION C4114, ROGERS CITY. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0759 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE WELLSTON           44.22N 85.94W
10/23/2017  M2.42 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WLLM4, 1 ENE WELLSTON. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0755 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANCELONA               44.90N 85.07W
10/23/2017  M2.41 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION D3512, MANCELONA. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0753 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ROGERS CITY             45.42N 83.81W
10/23/2017  M2.41 INCH       PRESQUE ISLE       MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION C4114, ROGERS CITY. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0756 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE GAYLORD           44.99N 84.66W
10/23/2017  M2.38 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION D3024, 2 SSE GAYLORD. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0715 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
10/23/2017  M2.30 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GLRM4R2, 1 WNW WATERS. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0745 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW EAST JORDAN       45.19N 85.15W
10/23/2017  M2.24 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION C2615, 2 NNW EAST JORDAN.
            THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0748 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW GRAWN             44.64N 85.69W
10/23/2017  M2.14 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV223, 1 SSW GRAWN. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0746 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE BARTON CITY       44.66N 83.59W
10/23/2017  M2.13 INCH       ALCONA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BCYM4, 1 SE BARTON CITY. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0750 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW WELLSTON          44.23N 85.96W
10/23/2017  M2.05 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E0269, WELLSTON. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0712 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S INDIAN RIVER        45.38N 84.63W
10/23/2017  M1.98 INCH       CHEBOYGAN          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION INDM4, 2 S INDIAN RIVER. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0743 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N CLARION             45.30N 84.90W
10/23/2017  M1.91 INCH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E3521, 1 NNE CLARION. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0753 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE PETOSKEY          45.36N 84.95W
10/23/2017  M1.74 INCH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AS614, PETOSKEY. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0740 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 ENE CHEBOYGAN         45.66N 84.33W
10/23/2017  M1.72 INCH       CHEBOYGAN          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION C3699, 6 E CHEBOYGAN. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0754 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW GRAWN             44.64N 85.69W
10/23/2017  M1.71 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV223, 1 SSW GRAWN. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0736 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E ODEN                45.42N 84.79W
10/23/2017  M1.67 INCH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E7833, 2 E ODEN. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0744 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW ONEKAMA           44.35N 86.27W
10/23/2017  M1.67 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E5499, 3 WSW ONEKAMA. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0720 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE MAPLE CITY        44.85N 85.84W
10/23/2017  M1.63 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MAPM4, MAPLE CITY 1E.
            THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0753 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW IRONTON           45.26N 85.22W
10/23/2017  M1.57 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION D7501, IRONTON. THE DURATION
            OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48 HOURS.

0737 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW MANISTEE          44.23N 86.34W
10/23/2017  M1.53 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION D9113, 1 SSW MANISTEE. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

0803 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE PETOSKEY          45.36N 84.95W
10/23/2017  M1.41 INCH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AS614, PETOSKEY. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0751 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E ODEN                45.42N 84.79W
10/23/2017  M1.40 INCH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E7833, 2 E ODEN. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0759 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW ONEKAMA           44.35N 86.27W
10/23/2017  M1.25 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E5499, 3 WSW ONEKAMA. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

0714 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW KINCHELOE          46.24N 84.51W
10/23/2017  M1.16 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RYDM4, KINCHELOE. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48
            HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
813 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W OSSINEKE            44.91N 83.45W
10/23/2017  M2.27 INCH       ALPENA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
            HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
838 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KELDEN                  46.21N 84.31W
10/23/2017  E1.14 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&