Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1207 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.AVIATION...
A cold front continues to move south of the region and winds are
strong as high pressure is building into the area. AMA had peak
wind gust to 39 knots which overshot all model progs. NNW Winds
will slowly decline through the afternoon then drop off rapidly
after sunset. Dry conditions will provide VFR through the period.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

AVIATION...
12Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period for all
sites. Westerly flow will quickly turn northwesterly and become
breezy with gusts around 30kts. Winds will decrease after 00Z as
they slowly turn back to the southwest towards the end of the
period.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dry forecast continues through Sunday.  Thursday expected to be
windy with critical fire weather conditions.

Sharp 500 mb shortwave trof currently over western part of
forecast area expected to progress eastward today.  Associated
weak polar cold front will move through the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles this morning, with breezy north winds in its wake.
Lingering morning clouds expected to clear eastern sections early
this morning.

Above-normal daytime temperatures expected through Thursday as dry
trajectories allow ample insolation.

Next digging shortwave trof crosses the Rockies on Thursday, with
rapidly falling pressures creating windy conditions across the
Panhandles.  Strong west winds during the day will cause Thursday
high temperatures to be about 25 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

Polar cold front associated with this system passes Thursday
night, bringing highs on Friday close to climo.  Modest
temperature recovery commences on Saturday.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
across all of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles due to dry north
winds.

Southwest winds on Tuesday will not be strong enough to
cause elevated or critical fire weather conditions.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop area-wide
on Thursday as a rapidly deepening low pressure trof sets up
across the eastern part of the forecast area. Deep west winds are
expected to mix to surface, aided in part by 500 mb winds above 60
knots overhead.

Briefly elevated fire weather conditions are expected during the
afternoons across western sections of the Panhandles on Wednesday,
Friday and Sunday as westerly winds increase into the 15 to 20 MPH
range.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
344 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-202200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
344 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
across all of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles due to dry north
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dry and windy conditions are expected on Thursday, particularly
across the western half of the Panhandles. Critical fire weather
conditions are likely to occur and a wind advisory will likely be
needed.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected during the
afternoons on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday across western sections
of the Panhandles as dry westerly winds increase.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions on Thursday.

A less serious concern for elevated fire weather conditions also
exists for Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.

Cockrell