Wind Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

415 
WWAK72 PAFG 051258
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
458 AM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

AKZ213-214-051400-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171005T1400Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
Diomede, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, 
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, 
and Pitkas Point
458 AM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

$$

AKZ215-060200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-171005T1800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0041.171005T1400Z-171006T0200Z/
Lower Yukon Valley-
Including Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik,
and Flat
458 AM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 6 PM AKDT this evening. 

* LOCATION...Southwest of Anvik.

* WINDS...Southeast winds gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase later this morning with the
  strongest winds this afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will make travel difficult. Loose 
  objects will be blown around. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
647 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave ridge over eastern Alaska and Western Canada will
progress east Thu as the very strong trough over the Bering Sea
progresses east over mainland Alaska on Thu and into western
Canada by Fri. Weather associated with the trough will be
addressed with the strong low mentioned below in the surface
section. Well above normal temperatures under the ridge will
persist Into Thu then cool Fri as the trough moves inland.

A high amplitude trough will develop over the Western Bering Sea
next Tue and persist through next week. There is much uncertainty
on the exact location and timing of strong short waves that will
move northeast over the Bering Sea next week. But there is good
indication that next week will be stormy over the Bering Sea as is
typical for October.

Surface...
The main feature is a rapidly deepening low in the western Bering
Sea will move to the central Bering as a 962 mb low by 4pm Wed,
and to the Yukon Delta as a 968 mb low by 4pm Thu, and to near
Tanana as a 996 mb low by 4pm Fri. An occluding front stretching
east from the low will move to the northern and eastern Bering Sea
this afternoon, to Gambell to McGrath by 4am Thu, to the Bering
Strait to Kotzebue to Denali by 4pm Thu. and then stretch east and
Weaken. Southeast Gales with gusts 50-60 mph will spread to the
West Coast of Alaska with the front and to the Alaska Range Passes
this evening. Winds will decrease south of the front. Expect up
to .50 inch of rain with this front over the West Coast and
Western Interior. Will see winds turn North 20-30 kt west of the
Low over the West Coast Thu and Fri.

A low pressure trough along the West Coast of Alaska now will
move into the Western Interior today. Rain associated with this
will taper off this afternoon as the trough moves inland.

A 998 mb low north of Wrangel Island will move north today.
An arctic front stretching from this low east to Wainwright and
Barter Island will move north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska this
afternoon. Dense fog north of this front is causing rime frost
accumulation from Barrow east this morning. Fog and Frost should
diminish by noon as the front moves north of the Coast. There is
a chance of Freezing rain from Barrow east this morning as well.

A 1005 mb low near Denali will move to Fairbanks as a 1004 mb low
by 4pm today, to near Barter Island as a 994 mb low by 4am Thu,
to near Prudhoe Bay as a 988 mb low by 4pm Thu and to 150 nm north
of Prudhoe Bay as a 993 mb low by 4pm Fri. Expect a chance of
rain ahead of this low with rain likely just south of the low.
There is a possibility of freezing rain with this over the eastern
North Slope Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and similar solutions through 4pm Thu.
After that time the NAM and ECMF weaken the strong low over the
West Coast and move it east more rapidly than the GFS. Given the
strong upper level support with this feature favor the GFS
solution from Thu into Fri which maintains the surface low
pressure deeper and moves it east more slowly than the ECMF and
NAM.

From the weekend into next week the models keep the same long wave
pattern but differ significantly with the timing and location of
short waves. There is certainty that next week will be stormy over
the Bering Sea but low certainty on timing and exact locations.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Sea levels will rise 2 feet above normal tides tonight along the
Yukon Delta with 3 ft above normal tides at Scammon Bay. Since
the strongest winds are pushing offshore do not expect high surf
issues but water will be high. Otherwise no issues until next
week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ215-AKZ225-AKZ226.

High Wind Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

JB OCT 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
653 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

AKZ214-050000-
Yukon Delta-
Including Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua,
and Pitkas Point
653 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...High Water Tonight Along the Yukon Delta...

Water levels are expected to rise to 3 feet above normal tides
at Scammon Bay late tonight, and to 2 feet above normal tides on
the Yukon Delta. Residents may want to move boats to higher ground
today.

JB