Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

048 
WWAK63 PAFG 080505
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
905 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

AKZ223-080615-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170608T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
905 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Red flag conditions are no longer expected this evening as
temperatures have dropped.


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
101 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis, and verified well against the 18z surface analyses.
Model spread remains reasonable through early next week. Larger
differences in feature strength and positions emerge across the
model suite by the middle of next week.

Aloft the upper level high pressure system over the Chukotsk
Peninsula has merged with the upper level ridge building west out
of the Yukon over central and northern Alaska. As the merged
ridge continues to build over the next couple days expect well
above normal temperatures over a large portion of northern Alaska
with temperatures reaching into the lower 80s at many locations.
The warm temperatures aloft will limit thunderstorm activity over
much of the interior with only the lower YK delta expecting
isolated thunderstorms.

The thermal trough over the interior will cause gap winds through
the Alaska Range passes to continue into this evening especially
as a weak front moves north over the Alaska Range this evening.
The front will stall over the interior and combine with the
thermal trough to contribute to northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts to around 20 mph north of the front. This is just short of
Red Flag Wind Criteria and will need to be monitored closely as
the other two Red Flag Criteria are likely to be met tomorrow.

The 1032 mb high pressure system north the North Slope will only
slowly drift south increasing the gradient over the North Slope.
Expect east winds int he 15 to 30 mph range to continue through
Saturday. With icepack cooled airmass and upstream open leads
expect the low ceilings and fog to continue for the next several
days with some burning off of the clouds during the afternoons
over the interior North Slope especially to the west of Umiat.
Coastal locations on the North Slope will likely not see much burn
off the the fog and stratus.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm pattern to continue through Friday with slightly
cooler temperatures expected over the weekend over the interior.
Red Flag criteria will be met over much of the western, central
and eastern interior This evening, Thursday and Friday. Red Flag
criteria for low relative humidities will be met over much of the
western, central and eastern interior this evening, Thursday and
Friday. Red Flag criteria for sustained winds will be approached
over the interior this evening especially as the thermal trough
over the interior is strengthened as a front moves north over the
Alaska Range this evening. Southerly gap flow winds through Alaska
Range passes this evening and Thursday will create near Red Flag
conditions along and near the north slopes of the Alaska Range.
Will see NE winds 10g20kt over the Interior with higher gusts over
hills. This will cause near Red Flag conditions over much of the
Interior this evening and Thu afternoon/evening. Fri will be
warmer but winds will be decreasing then as the front weakens.
Numerous Fires in the SW Interior are causing areas of smoke and
reduced visibility there that will persist into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers draining the Alaska Range and Brooks Range will be rising
through the weekend due to freezing levels rising to 10,000 ft
along the Brooks Range and to 12,000 ft along the Alaska Range by
Fri. Some rivers may rise up to their banks covering up gravel
bars by the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JUN 17