Storm Warning 188, NWS Anchorage, AK

371 
FZAK52 PAFC 230029
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231345-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 mb low 220 nm southwest of Gambell moves to the Gulf of 
Anadyr tonight. A second low enters the southeastern Bering 
tonight at 988 mb 180 nm east of Saint George and moves 80 nm east
of Gambell Sun afternoon at 1001 mb. A front remains nearly 
stationary along the eastern Bering through the forecast period. 
Another low approaches the western Aleutians Sun afternoon at 1007
mb. 

$$

PKZ150-231345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt except E 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind
25 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers
and rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231345-
Bristol Bay-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...N wind 45 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 19 ft
except 12 ft from Port Moller E. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt
becoming W after midnight. Seas 19 ft except 16 ft from Port
Moller E. Snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231345-
Unalaska Bay-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231345-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231345-
Adak to Kiska-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231345-
Kiska to Attu-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
329 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

201 
FZAK52 PAFC 231255
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-240200-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 mb low 355 nm South of Chignik loops a front into Southwest
Alaska and moves across the Gulf of Alaska by Mon morning. A 989 
mb low 90 nm North of Port Heiden moves to the Chukchi Sea at 1007
mb Mon morning. Two Western Bering 995 mb lows merge 90 nm West 
of St Matthew Island at 1014 mb Mon morning. A 1003 mb low moves 
to 95 nm Southeast of Adak at 1011 mb Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ150-240200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-240200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt except E 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 30
kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-240200-
Bristol Bay-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-240200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 18
ft except 11 ft from Port Moller E. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, N wind 25 kt
becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft. and rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt except NW 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-240200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-240200-
Unalaska Bay-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-240200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-240200-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-240200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-240200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-240200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-240200-
Adak to Kiska-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-240200-
Kiska to Attu-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-240200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-240200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NW in the evening. Seas 12 ft. Snow
and rain.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-240200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt, becoming NW 30 kt W of Nunivak Island in the 
afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt...except E 30 kt E of Nunivak Island in the
evening. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-240200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
935 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad negatively tilted upper trough extends from eastern Russia
southeast to over the northeast Pacific. To its east a relatively
warm upper ridge extends northwest across the Gulf of Alaska to
over the mainland. At the surface, a series of lows, associated the
with upper trough, extend from the western Bering Sea to south of
the Alaska Peninsula. The most significant of the surface
features is a 980s low heading north toward the Alaska Peninsula
and associated leading front. Strong easterly winds ahead of these
features extend from the Gulf and Ak Pen to the eastern
Bering/Bristol Bay. Rain was evident across the AK Pen and was
approaching Kodiak Island and the north Bristol Bay coast.
Satellite imagery shows a broad Cirrus shield associated with
mountain wave turbulence and warm advection extending to the lee
of the Ak Pen and Aleutian Range. Elsewhere, strong and gusty
winds with showers were evident across the central and western
Aleutians/Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance continues to have a good handle on the synoptics of the
pattern, but struggle a bit with phasing of the Pacific system
into the Bering Sea trough. All guidance phases the system, but
how much and exactly where the resultant surface low sets up are
still in question.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions and light surface winds will
persist. Cross barrier flow will increase tonight and bring in
potential for LLWS across the airport complex.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
"Dirty" upper level ridging is building over Southcentral ahead
of a rather impressive warm front which will track across
Southwest Alaska tonight and tomorrow. A very dense cirrus cloud
shield has formed in association with a elongated mountain wave
along the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians, with the cirrus
wrapping anticyclonically over Southcentral (hence the "dirty"
upper ridging as that is more commonly associated with more clear
weather). There is also extensive low status and fog over the
Copper River Basin associated with a strong surface high and
stagnant air. The main weather feature of interest the next two
days will be a strong storm force front moving into the Gulf of
Alaska. This will bring 3-6" of rainfall for Kodiak Island along
with strong easterly winds. Beyond this, interior weather will be
rather banal given the dry offshore flow and moderate inversions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
There are two storms west of southwest Alaska and their cloud
shields have already merged on satellite imagery resulting in a
broad shield from the interior into the North Pacific. The High
Wind Warning remains in effect as there is good confidence that
the low will bring high wind gusts to the downslope and gap wind
prone areas along the Aleutian Range as well as portions north of
Dillingham. Warm air advection will accompany this event,
although some places may get a wet snow. Another low is expected
to move into the area Saturday keeping the unsettled conditions in
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
There is a broad area of troughing from northeast Russia to the
North Pacific. There are several distinct circulations at the
surface, one over Attu Island, one near the Pribilofs, and another
south of the AK Pen. To the east, there is a dome of high
pressure over the interior. With high pressure in place, expect
the lows to follow the path of least resistance. Sensible weather-wise,
expect more gradient winds over the Eastern Aleutians. As this
unsettled pattern evolves, the storm from the North Pacific will
become entrained in the synoptic flow and get pulled northward
keeping the gusty winds in place over the Eastern Aleutians this
forecast period. Given the source region for this storm, expect
warm air to advect into the region. All the while, another low
will trek from Attu directly over the chain with the models
spinning up another low in its wake. Overall, its a very dynamic
pattern with plenty of opportunities for gusty winds and rough
seas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long-term forecast beginning Saturday evening will start off
with ongoing wet and windy conditions stretching from the northern
Gulf area through the southwest Mainland, and into the
eastern/central Aleutians and Bering as a north Pacific low
begins to track into the Alaska Peninsula. There remains some
model differences regarding the timing of the frontal winds and
precipitation, and how far the system will push into the northern
Gulf coast and Cook Inlet region by Sunday. Currently the middle
ground GFS solution was preferred, bringing the rain over Kodiak
Island northward into the Kenai Peninsula by Saturday evening,
then into the northern Gulf coast by Sunday morning. The low then
begins to track north along the western coast Sunday afternoon,
switching the southeasterly flow over the southern Mainland to
southwesterly flow, which will bring colder onshore flow and
showery conditions over the southwest mainland Sunday night into
Monday morning. This will also bring a slight chance of some
light snow to fall over the Cook Inlet region overnight Sunday
into Monday morning.

On the western periphery of this low pressure system, some strong
cold air advection will persist over the Pribilofs and Eastern
Aleutians through the weekend and into the early part of next
week. This will likely bring snow showers and the potential for
blowing snow over these areas Saturday evening through Sunday
morning. A ridge will build in over the western Aleutians/Bering
Monday morning, and quickly push eastward over the central
Bering/Aleutians by the middle of the week. This ridge will be
short lived as the next trough moves over the area Tuesday. This
system could bring another round of wet and windy weather to the
western and central Bering/Aleutians Tuesday afternoon through
the later part of the week. However, previous runs have shown
significantly different solutions, so confidence in the forecast
from Monday through the end of next week remains low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 180.
 Gale Warning 119 120 136-138 141 170 172-176 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...PEPE