Hurricane Force Wind Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

245 
FZAK52 PAFC 161159
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170045-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 240 nm north of Cold Bay moves to 130 nm west of 
King Salmon at 982 mb Sat afternoon...then moves into the Gulf. A 
North Pacific front approaches the western and central Aleutians 
Sat night through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-170045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170045-
Bristol Bay-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt except SW 40 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 35
ft except 25 ft from Port Moller E. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 18 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
36 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft subsiding to 17 ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170045-
Unalaska Bay-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170045-
Adak to Kiska-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170045-
Kiska to Attu-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 35 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a double-barreled low over
the Bering and Arctic early this morning. The low center over the
Bering is stacked and will be the main weather challenge for the
short term forecast. The ridge which was over the Alcan border
yesterday, shifted further east across British Columbia. At the
surface, a weak trough pulled a front inland across Southcentral
overnight bringing a few showers across the region. A weak
boundary remains along the northeast gulf and Prince William Sound
with showers continuing to develop along the boundary. To the
west, the low over the central Bering waters is rapidly deepening
about 200 miles west of the Pribilof Islands and is approximately
982 mb early this morning. Gusty southeasterly flow along the
eastern waters had reported gusts between 40 to 50 mph with winds
across the western waters gusting up to the same strength out of
the west.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in relatively good agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern through Saturday, however they still
have differences with the strength and track of the quickly
developing storm system over the Bering. The ECMWF continues to be
the favored model for the storm track and strength from the 00Z
models. Higher resolution of the NAM was used for the Gulf and
local edit areas of Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the next TAF package.
Light southerly winds are expected to increase this afternoon as
the storm system to the west strengthens. Winds are expected to
taper off late tonight as the pressure re-orients to a down inlet
flow ahead of an approaching front. Kept winds southeasterly
overnight as models have struggled with a new low center expected
to develop early Saturday morning over the western gulf.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A weakening front continues to support widespread showers along
the northern Gulf of Alaska Coast this morning and in the western
Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley. A coastal ridge and low level jet
remains intact this morning, which continues to support broad
southeasterly downsloping winds across the west Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley. Although moisture is
sufficient, downsloping continues to significantly limit rain in
these areas. There is a little more uncertainty for the Saturday
forecast as a triple point low develops in the Gulf of Alaska. The
latest models are trending in a more well-developed low with a
more potent but brief low level jet along the north Gulf of Alaska
coast. Models are also trending for more widespread moderate to
heavy rains along the coast which could result in a fairly soggy
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An approaching Bering Sea front and low pressure system will
return rain and gusty winds to the area this afternoon. The front
quickly washes out late tonight leaving much of the mainland in a
moist cyclonic flow and more showery precipitation rather than
widespread rain. The responsible upper level trough lingers
through the weekend leaving a chance of showers and relatively
light northerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The focus remains on the developing fall storm west of the
Pribilof Islands. The swath of strongest winds still looks to clip
the Islands, especially Saint George as the system pulls to the
east this evening. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning. Rain will come with the winds on the backside of
the system overnight. The strongest winds will shift toward the
Alaska Peninsula overnight into Saturday before slowly tapering
down through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term outlook will feature a somewhat complicated pattern
beginning next week with various model solutions and little
consensus, keeping overall forecast confidence past day 4 low at
this point. To start, a strong low pressure system originating in
the Bering Friday/Saturday will move into the Gulf of Alaska and
then east into Southeast Alaska while weakening by early next
week. On Monday, models are showing a weak shortwave trough
dropping out of the Arctic, riding the back end of the upper level
trough over the state, which will lead to more unsettled weather
for southwest and southcentral Alaska keeping temperatures cool.
By midweek, a low pressure system supported by an active sub-
tropical jet forms south of the western Aleutians then heads east
skirting the island chain. Models diverge greatly at this point
with the GFS taking the system too far south to impact out area,
while the EC takes a more northerly trajectory bringing a front
with heavy rain up through southwest and eventually into
southcentral by Wednesday evening. Since the EC has been more
consistent over the past week with handling a more amplified flow,
the forecast trended towards the later solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning...195.
MARINE...Storms..165 170 179
Gales...150 155 160 171 172 173 174 175 176 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...KVP