Gale Warning 770, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2017, 3:56 AM AKST (12:56 UTC)

Expired

Dec 31, 2017, 4:45 PM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

299 
FZAK52 PAFC 311256
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010145-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 mb low over the Alaska Peninsula moves over Hooper Bay and 
dissipates this afternoon. A 976 mb low 170 nm northwest of Dutch 
Harbor moves to 230 nm northeast of Shemya at 982 mb Mon night. A 
956 mb low 280 nm south of Cold Bay tonight moves to 70 nm north of 
Port Heiden at 967 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ150-010145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010145-
Bristol Bay-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010145-
Unalaska Bay-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010145-
Adak to Kiska-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010145-
Kiska to Attu-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain...except snow N of Cape 
Newenham. Freezing spray in the morning N of Cape Newenham.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning. Snow mixing with rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-010145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 45 kt. Seas
23 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 30, 5:23 PM AKST, 10 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A pattern change is beginning over southern Alaska, transitioning
from cold and dry to warmer and wetter. There is an upper level
low over the central and eastern Aleutians that stretches
northward through the central Bering Sea. An occluded front
extends from the Kuskokwim Delta through the Pribilofs. Warm moist
air is surging northward into the western Gulf and southwest
Alaska along a fairly strong front. A triple point low is
developing south of Kodiak Island and moving northward. High
pressure is along the Canadian border, slowly retreating to the
northeast. High pressure is over the western Bering and Northeast
Russia, with northerly flow at the surface over the Bering Sea
west of the Pribilofs.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement through Monday
afternoon. There are still some differences in the exact location
of the triple point low moving through/near Kodiak tonight, but
timing of the front is very close. The models now agree fairly
well on the strong low that will move towards the Alaska Peninsula
on Monday, and all are within about 5mb of each other. Due to the
difficulty in predicting the transitions of precipitation type
and temperatures with the pattern change, the forecast confidence
is near normal despite good model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds are expected
at the surface, with strong southeasterly wind aloft. This will
give wind shear through Sunday morning, which will abate in the
afternoon as the responsible weather system moves north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low moving north toward the Alaska Peninsula tonight,
combined with a strong leading weather front continuing it's
journey through the Gulf will begin the transition to a more
active weather pattern for the southcentral area. Gales to storm
force winds will spread north across the Gulf marine areas through
Sunday morning. Inland areas will see increasing gap flows this
evening through Sunday night in favored locals (Turnagain Arm,
Portage Valley, Mat Valley). Winds in these areas will continue to
strengthen tonight through early Sunday morning before peaking in
the afternoon, then briefly diminishing Sunday night. The
strongest of these gap winds will be along Turnagain Arm and
Portage Valley, where winds will exceed 60 mph tonight through
early Sunday afternoon. Snow will intensify across the eastern
Kenai Peninsula tonight into Sunday afternoon, combined with
strong winds to produce some blizzard conditions from Portage
Valley through Turnagain Pass. The challenge for this area on
Sunday is if the air warms enough for the snow to change over to
rain, or a mix in Portage Valley. Currently, confidence is
slightly higher in snow persisting through Sunday afternoon, when
some rain can start to mix in with the snow as temperatures rise
from the influx of warmer winds. Either way, higher elevations
of the Seward Highway should remain mostly snow through Sunday
night.

Elsewhere, snow will likely mix with rain along the Coast, with
downsloping limiting snow west of the Chugach Range. The exception
would be upslope enhanced snow along the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges
over western Cook Inlet/Susitna Valley. Kodiak will see moderate
rain at times today and tonight until the front passes to the
north Sunday. By Monday morning, another strong front will begin
to track through the Gulf and into the northern Gulf coast/Cook
Inlet region by Monday evening, bringing another round of wet and
gusty weather to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An active weather pattern persists through Tuesday bringing a
challenging wind and precipitation forecast. A front along the
Southwest diminishes late tonight, however gusty winds and
precipitation continue through the weekend as another strong
disturbance develops along the base of the Bering trough. This
developing system moves another surface low north across the
region on Sunday. Strong easterly flow limits the amount of
precipitation with both systems as the low centers remain track
across the eastern Bering. The upper level waves will be strong
enough to support precipitation bands which overcomes downsloping
at times. The most challenging conditions are expected across the
Kuskokwim Delta where temperatures warm considerably just off the
surface. A shallow cold pool will not be scoured out by the
up gliding air mass moving from the North Pacific. Kept the
winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow out through
midnight, however brief white out conditions may occur tonight and
blowing snow may redevelop on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A broad trough along the Bering keeps active weather through
Tuesday. Cold air advection keeps precipitation mainly snow along
the western waters with a mix of rain and snow along the eastern
Chain and Alaska Peninsula as temperatures moderate in the mid 30s
to low 40s. Gale force marine winds are expected along area waters
with the strongest system tracking across the Alaska Peninsula
Monday to the eastern Bering on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The front associated with a 960 mb low crossing the Alaska
Peninsula and moving into Bristol Bay, will lift north from the
Gulf of Alaska over southcentral Alaska Monday evening. Strong
southeasterly flow will bring abundant precipitation to the Gulf
Coastal regions and adjacent mountains particularly along east to
southeast facing slopes with both heavy rain near sea level and
snow higher up and in colder sheltered valleys potential
concerns. Additionally, the tight pressure gradient will bring
strong east to southeast winds to the typical favorably oriented
gaps and valleys as well as into the Anchorage Bowl late Monday
night through Tuesday morning, while downslope warming increases
temperatures in these windy areas into the upper 30s to low 40s.

The strong southeasterly flow will diminish through the day on
Tuesday as the surface low fills and tracks north towards to the
Kuskokwim Delta coast. An upper level trough rotating around the
south side of this low will spread cold air aloft across the
Alaska Peninsula Tuesday and into Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ridging will begin building
over mainland Alaska Thursday and Friday in response to a deep low
north Pacific low crossing the central Aleutians and tracking
into the Bering. Uncertainty remains high regarding this system
but current model runs are forecasting the minimum depth of the
surface low to be around 940 mb. The associated front will reach
Southwest Alaska Friday night or Saturday then stall as it hits
the large upper level ridge. Cold westerly flow and snow showers
will prevail over the Bering in the broad upper level trough that
forms once the low lifts north, while in southcentral Alaska under
the large ridge, fog and low stratus will be the main forecast
challenge for the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 125. Winter Weather Advisory 155.
MARINE...Gale 119 125 132 136-139 141 150 155 160 179-181 185.
         Storm 120 130 131.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2017Every gale warning in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.