Gale Warning 754, NWS Anchorage, AK

655 
FZAK51 PAFC 241239
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250145-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 mb low 55 nm South of Chignik follows a strong front across
the Gulf to 60 nm Southwest of Yakutat at 1028 mb by Tue morning.
High pressure pushes into the Southwestern Gulf for Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-250145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250145-
Resurrection Bay-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread snow showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250145-
Prince William Sound-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250145-
Port Valdez-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250145-
Valdez Narrows-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250145-
Valdez Arm-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250145-
Passage Canal-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250145-
Barren Islands East-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250145-
Chiniak Bay-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250145-
Marmot Bay-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250145-
Shelikof Strait-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-250145-
Kachemak Bay-
339 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt by late morning. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The overhead longwave pattern is fully established with a blocking
high firmly entrenched over the ALCan border. The active east
Asian jet, protruding well into the northern Pacific, is buckling
in response, creating a very high amplitude pattern. The upper low
over Kamchatka isn't overly strong with most of the action
associated with the jet to the south. Deep layer southeast flow
still exists from the western Gulf of Alaska through the southwest
Mainland. While the High Wind Warning has expired over the
Bristol Bay area, gusty winds remain. A stalled frontal boundary
sits over the far end of the Alaska Peninsula where Cold Bay has
seen 12.9 inches of accumulating snow overnight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance are in great agreement with the progression of the Alaska
Peninsula surface low center for the next couple days as well as
the exiting of the upper level trough inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front which has been nearly stationary over the southwest
Gulf, will begin to make some northward progress beginning later
today as the upper level trough over the northeast Pacific begins
to lift. However, with a strong blocking ridge along the ALCAN
border the trough will stall as it nears Southcentral, with the
surface front elongating and weakening. The latest forecast
continues to trend slower with the frontal progression and
confines most of the precipitation to the immediate Gulf coast,
namely the southern to eastern Kenai Peninsula. Thus, most of
Southcentral will remain dry through the weekend. Forecast
confidence drops as we head into Christmas Day, with a weak
remnant trough trying to move over Southcentral. This means
there is some potential for flurries or light snow, but nothing
organized that would produce much (if any) accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Very little change in the weather is expected today as persistent
southeasterly winds and cloudcover will keep temperatures well
above normal with rainfall confined to the delta coast and
easterly facing terrain. This pattern will begin to break down
late tonight as the low south of the AK pen continues to weaken,
allowing the pressure gradient to begin to slacken by Sunday
morning. This will allow temperatures to slowly fall back below
freezing with diminishing winds, and just an outside chance of a
passing light rain/snow shower through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
The biggest concern today will be for the potential for snow and
blowing snow east of the Prib's today as the weakening trough
currently over the Eastern Bering is quickly replaced by another
that will develop this afternoon. As was observed with the heavy
snow in Cold Bay yesterday under a similar sharp trough, the
heaviest of the snow should occur along the AK pen, where up to
10 inches of new snowfall should occur, likely to the east of Cold
Bay this time. Along with the snow, gale force northerly winds
behind the trough is expected to bring areas of blowing snow,
especially to the AK pen that already saw a round of snowfall
yesterday. As a result of this a winter weather advisory was
issued through tonight for snow and blowing snow concerns.
Further to the west over the Eastern Aleutians/Prib's the snowfall
should be much lighter and showery. This low is then expected to
move eastward and weaken below gale force on Sunday, leaving much
of the area under the influence of a slowly moving low complex
into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Sunday evening, there will
be a weakening upper trough lifting northward along the Gulf Coast
with a highly amplified upper ridge over the eastern part of
Alaska. Weak upper troughing will extend over Southwest Alaska and
the Bering Sea. Rain and snow along the Gulf Coast and over Kodiak
will continue but slowly diminish through Tuesday as the trough
moves inland and falls apart. By that time, high latitude
blocking in the vicinity of Eastern Siberia and the Beaufort Sea
will begin to exert a stronger influence on the pattern, and as
usual, this lends to lower confidence and higher variability with
the upper level wave pattern after Thursday. With that said,
surface high pressure will effectively "block" the storm track
away from Alaska and the Bering Sea, so the weather pattern looks
rather quiet and banal with seasonable temperatures and what looks
to be dry offshore flow for most of Southern Alaska by Tue-Thu.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 181.
MARINE...Storm 130 131
         Gale 119 120 127 128 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 165
              170 171 172 175 177 178 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JA