Gale Warning 70, NWS Anchorage, AK

388 
FZAK52 PAFC 210046
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211345-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 969
MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN DEEPENS TO 945 MB AS IT MOVES TO 75 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK SUN AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THEN STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ150-211345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-211345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E... NW WIND
30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-211345-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-211345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-211345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-211345-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-211345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-211345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-211345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-211345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-211345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-211345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-211345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-211345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-211345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-211345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ185-211345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 PM AKST Thu Jan 19 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Frigid cold temperatures over much of the Mainland remain the main
weather story as areas of Southcentral and Southwest AK continue
to see the coldest temperatures in the last couple of years. The
main perpetrators causing these near record low temperatures are
a closed upper-level low over the northwest mainland and high
pressure at the surface. The upper-level low is transporting
arctic air southward to the southern Mainland while clear skies
and light winds under the surface high pressure are allowing
surface temperatures to plummet.

Further south along the Gulf coast, a trough of low pressure is
weakening this morning. The pressure gradient between the mainland
high and the coastal trough is allowing gusty northerly winds
through favorable channels on the North Gulf Coast and Broad Pass.
These winds have weakened through the morning as the coastal
trough weakens, but still remain gusty at times through the early
afternoon.

In the western part of the forecast area, a surface low pressure
system east of the Pribilof Islands is the main weather driver as
it tracks over the Bering towards the Southwest Coast. The
occluded front associated with the low pushed onshore over the
Southwest Coast early this morning and continues its track inward
over the Southwest Mainland this afternoon. The front is bringing winds
and moderate snowfall to the area, resulting in blizzard
conditions in areas of the Kuskokwim Coast. The Pribilof Islands
are also seeing reduced visibility due to blowing snow as the
occluded front wraps around the back of the low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

While previous model runs struggled with the track of the Bering
Low, recent model runs have better converged on a solution. The
models are all now in agreement tracking the low towards Kuskokwim
Bay tonight and moving inland overnight. Models also have a good
handle on the track and timing of the associated front as it
tracks over the Alaska Range tonight and into Southcentral
tomorrow. Some discrepancies do arise in the amount of
precipitation associated with the front Friday through Saturday.
High-Resolution models were used for the forecast to best capture
the local effects and the outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR/LIFR conditions will lift some this evening at times
before settling in for the night. Conditions should slowly improve
by noon Friday a weather front moves into the area.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A the coldest air over the region is shifting to the Copper River
Basin tonight, temperatures are still expected to fall below zero,
except for coastal locations. A front moving across the Alaska and
Aleutian ranges tonight into Fri will bring steadily warming
temperatures through Sat. The front will also spread some snow to
Kodiak late tonight into early Fri, the Kenai Peninsula during the
day on Fri, and the Susitna Valley and western Prince William
Sound Fri afternoon. A weak wave moving along the front will
downslope Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley on Fri, with only a
chance of snow. The upper flow then changes Fri night, allowing
for snow to fall in those areas. On Sat precipitation rapidly
ends as the front stalls and dissipates. As the front approaches
on Fri, the pressure gradient will tighten and some Turnagain Arm
winds will develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A storm force low continues tracking towards the Kuskokwim Bay
before moving onshore near Cape Newenham after midnight tonight.
The associated weather front is moving through the region
producing blizzard conditions mainly west of Bethel. The surface
observations at Toksook Bay, and Mekoryuk have been reporting
visibilities one quarter miles or less accompanied by gusty
northerly winds with snow and blowing snow since this morning.
While in the Bristol Bay, and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, the
greatest amounts of snowfall will occur along the Aleutian/Alaska
Range as the surface low tracks through the Southwest Alaska
region. By early Friday morning the low pressure system will be
located in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Therefore, the blizzard
conditions over the Kuskokwim Delta will have diminished except
for some wrap-around moisture making it into the aforementioned
region. Meanwhile, the northerly winds on the backside of this
synoptic feature allows cooler air to filter into the area. This
results in wind chills ranging from minus 25 to 35 below heading
into Friday time-frame. These cooler temperatures combined with
the northerly winds will possibly result in wind chill issues for
the Kuskokwim Delta as we head into Friday night through Saturday
morning time- frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The blowing snow conditions with visibilities one half mile or
less at times will continue over the Pribilof Islands through
early Friday morning. They are receiving northerly winds as the
cold air advection strengthens the pressure gradient. The surface
observations at Saint Matthew Island have reported one half mile
or less accompanied by blowing snow with gusty northerly winds
since early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. This
coincides with an upper level trough dropping down from the north
through the aforementioned region this evening. This reinforces
the gusty northerly flow combined with snow to keep the blowing
snow advisory extended through early Friday morning. Meanwhile,
look for the gap winds to develop along the Eastern Aleutians, and
the Alaska Peninsula by Friday evening. While the Western
Aleutians has a storm force low tracking near Shemya by Saturday
morning. The associated weather front moves through the Western
Aleutians resulting in gale force southeasterly winds accompanied
by warmer temperatures heading into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period on Saturday evening, there will be
an arctic trough over Southwest Alaska and a storm force North
Pacific low moving into the Western Aleutians. Eventually the
North Pacific low will quickly traverse the chain and move into
the Gulf of Alaska. This will represent a rather large change in
the pattern to warmer and cloudier as the very cold arctic air
mass is displaced north. All the global numerical models depict a
similar pattern with a general trough position located over the
Eastern Bering by early next week. Shortwave troughs rotating
north toward the Gulf coast will bring a pretty continuous feed of
moisture and warmer air northward with the threat for coastal
rain/snow and potentially heavy snow for favored mountain
locations which do well in south to southeast flow environments
(Turnagain Pass, for instance). Inland locations will tend to see
stronger downslope flow conditions but will still be prone to
shots of precipitation as the lows move inland. This very active
pattern looks to continue into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155.
		 Blowing Snow Advisory 195.

MARINE...Gale 165 179 180 181 185
Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126-129 139 150-170 172 178 180 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA