Gale Warning 698, NWS Anchorage, AK

085 
FZAK62 PAFC 300033
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301445-
333 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 971 mb low at 48N 165E will move south of the Kamchatka
Peninsula Sat morning. A 970 mb low at 51N 173W will move to 52N 
166W at 975 mb Sun morning then it will move to 57N 174W at 974 mb
Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Freezing spray after
midnight north of 56N.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Freezing spray 
after midnight north of 56N. Snow showers.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming N 20 to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

666 
FZAK62 PAFC 301237
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-310200-
337 AM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 mb low at 51N 174W moves to 54N 169W tonight at 974 mb. The
low then moves to 56N 177W at 973 mb Sun night. A second 980 mb
low enters the eastern Bering near 57N 159W tonight and then
dissolves Sun afternoon in the central Bering. A North Pacific low
at 957 mb moves to 51N 160W Sun night.

$$

PKZ411-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 AM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning N of 56N. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 AM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Freezing spray N of
57N. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 AM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 AM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray N of
57N. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

820 
FZAK62 PAFC 310018
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-311430-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 mb low at 53N 170W will move to 56N 171W at 971 mb Sun 
morning, then it will weaken near 55N 176W Mon afternoon. A North 
Pacific low will move to 52N 162W at 955 mb Mon morning then it 
will move to 55N 158W at 959 mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-311430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-311430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-311430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-311430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

164 
FZAK62 PAFC 311248
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010145-
348 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 mb low over the Alaska Peninsula moves to 61N 166W and 
dissipates this afternoon. A 976 mb low at 56N 170W moves to 56N 177E
at 982 mb Mon night. A 956 mb low at 50N 161W tonight moves to 58N 
159W at 967 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ411-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper-level ridge remains intact over Eastern Alaska, but is
greatly encroached upon by a large low over Northern Canada and a
low over the Seward Peninsula, which is held in place by a stout
high over Eastern Russia. The main Pacific storm track remains
well south of mainland Alaska but close enough to the Aleutians to
move a storm force low toward the central islands.

At the surface, the big bubble isn't exactly trouble-free.  High
pressure near the AlCan border is holding near 1040 mb. Fog and
stratus are the challenges for many locations in Southwest,
Southcentral and the Copper River Basin. In the West, clouds
versus temperatures will remain an ongoing challenge.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models initialized well but quickly move out of step in handling
the North Pacific surface features approaching the Aleutians and
AK Pen. In the West, forecast trends have been following closer to
the ECMWF. Today, no one model is a clear winner but forecasts
were weighted toward the ECMWF in deference to previous trends
with no great amount of confidence.

In the East, wind was in general agreement with both NAM and GFS.
However, precip trends were not in alignment. This led to a slower
approach for the weekend arrival of a front in the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog will continue to lurk in the Anchorage bowl and is
expected to move back into the terminal this evening. However, as
usual, the exact timing and just how dense it becomes remains
somewhat uncertain. For this forecast package, trends from the
past two nights will be favored and will introduce IFR fog
conditions this evening before it clears back out again by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The potential for fog/stratus will continue to be the primary
early term forecast concern in an otherwise benign weather
pattern. Of particular concern will be for the redevelopment of
fog around Northern Cook Inlet into the Anchorage Bowl and
Matanuska Valley that saw dense fog develop under a similar
scenario last night. This fog mostly dissipated under thin layer
of stratus this afternoon, however as this layer is quickly
diminishing fog is expected to redevelop this evening after
sunset. At this point it does not appear that widespread dense fog
will occur again due to some improvement today with slightly
stronger down-inlet flow, however this also wouldn't be completely
out of the question and will need to be monitored this evening.
The good news is there is reasonable confidence that this will be
final night of fog/stratus in this pattern as a front moving
through the Gulf beginning Friday night should provide enough
mixing and cloudcover to prevent more redevelopment.

This Gulf front will then be the primary weather maker into this
weekend as it spreads snow mixed with rain along with gale force
winds northward. There however remains significant uncertainty in
the models in how quickly the precipitation shield will spread
into the North Gulf Coast, possibly as fast as midday Saturday
(from the GFS) or as slow as Sunday (from the NAM). See the long
term discussion for some more details on this front, but the
general trend will be for deteriorating conditions for most of the
area over the course of this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Surface high pressure will continue, with weak offshore flow
tonight and Friday. The upper level low centered over the Seward
Peninsula will slowly drift north over the next couple of days.
This will allow southerly flow aloft to begin bringing weather
systems towards southwest Alaska beginning late Friday. A weak
warm front will push into the area late Friday afternoon and
evening. This will bring a chance of some snow to the western
Bristol Bay area. Also, this will switch the winds to east rather
than north/northeast, and the winds will increase. A more
substantial front (occlude) will push into the area Saturday,
bringing chances of precipitation to all of the southwest, as well
as stronger winds and warmer temperatures. Some areas in Bristol
Bay could see temperatures warm enough for a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong front over the Aleutians will slowly push northward
tonight, and then stall briefly on Friday as a triple point low
develops south of the eastern Aleutians and then approaches the
eastern/central Aleutians. There are enough model differences in
the handling of this low that the forecast confidence is not very
good on the exact location of this low, but models agree fairly
well on the slow northward progression of the front. Yet another
triple point low is likely to form south of the Alaska Peninsula
on Saturday, but again the numerical models are not in agreement
on this development.

Over much of the Bering Sea, easterly to northeasterly flow will
continue through Saturday with high pressure to the north and the
low pressure systems to the south. Warmer air will slowly work its
way northward over the central and eastern Bering, while cold air
slowly works its way southward over the western Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A pattern shift for the southern tier of the state is still on
track to begin this weekend, ushering in warmer and wetter weather
for the New Year. Models have been consistent in strengthening the
ridge over the Panhandle, allowing a broad longwave trough to set
up over the western portion of the state. This should allow the
synoptic flow to become more southerly through the Gulf and
Southwest Alaska. The first front to encroach upon the mainland
will appear on Saturday, bringing southeasterly flow into the Gulf
and precipitation to the Kodiak area. Models have not been very
consistent on the speed of this front, either run-to-run or
between solutions. All runs seem to be slowing this feature,
which seems likely, since it usually takes some time for fronts
to make their way northward with a blocking ridge over the
mainland.

Right now, this weekend's weather looks like it will remain snowy
for the Kenai Peninsula, with a mixed bag for precipitation over
the Southwest. Southeasterly winds will be gusty as the front
moves onshore, causing downsloping and little precipitation in the
usual leeside areas. By the middle of next week, the longwave
pattern will have completely transitioned to a longwave trough and
southerly flow over the mainland, which means a stormier pattern
through the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 150 155 160 165 170 171-176 179 180.
         Storm 177 178 411.
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...LF