Gale Warning 693, NWS Anchorage, AK

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 270021
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKST Tue Dec 26 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-271430-
321 PM AKST Tue Dec 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the western Aleutians will slowly move over the
central Aleutians through Thu. A 975 mb low will move to 47N 173E
Thu morning staying nearly stationary and strengthening to 967 mb
Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-271430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKST Tue Dec 26 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-271430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKST Tue Dec 26 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-271430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKST Tue Dec 26 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-271430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKST Tue Dec 26 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

260 
FZAK62 PAFC 271250
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280230-
350 AM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
High pressure remains over the Bering and Aleutians through Fri
morning. A 987 mb North Pacific low at 46N 164E extends a front 
South of the Aleutians. A 971 mb low forms at 50N 179E Thu 
afternoon and moves along the front to 51N 175E at 966 mb by Fri 
morning. The front slides over the Aleutians for Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

793 
FZAK62 PAFC 280031
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281430-
331 PM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Aleutians will move over the eastern 
Aleutians Fri afternoon. A 980 mb low will develop near 48N 170W 
Thu night then it will move to 51N 170W at 970 mb Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-281430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
331 PM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
331 PM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
331 PM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
331 PM AKST Wed Dec 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

335 
FZAK62 PAFC 281257
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-290215-
357 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 mb low at 47N 175E moves along the front to 49N 173E at 962
mb Fri morning then to 47N 169E at 974 mb by Sat morning. A 981 
mb low forms near 48N 171W Thu night and moves to 53N 175W at 971 
mb by Sat morning. The front moves across the Aleutians through 
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
357 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 27 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ412-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
357 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Freezing spray n of
57n after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
357 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming 40 kt after midnight. Seas
13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
357 AM AKST Thu Dec 28 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray n of 56n.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Freezing spray n of
56n.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray n of 56n
in the morning. Snow and rain s of 56n.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The fairly stagnant upper level pattern continues. A broad upper
trough extends from eastern Russia to over the Central Bering
Sea/Aleutians with another spoke extending east across Southwest
Alaska to over the North Gulf Coast. On the eastern flank is a
high over the Beaufort Sea and to the west an amplifying ridge
approaching the western Aleutians/Bering Sea. A large area of
open and closed cell cumulus associated with showers were present
under of the Bering Sea portion of the trough. While a weakening
surface front over the north Gulf Coast and trailing surface low
near Kodiak were present under the eastern spoke of the upper
trough. Overall precipitation was fairly light with the front and
more showery with the trailing low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in good agreement through Wednesday. This
forecast will be leaning toward the higher resolution models,
especially across Southcentral to address outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Santa and his reindeer are expected to continue having
good flying weather (VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period) in the Anchorage Bowl as he heads back to the Pole after
a successful Christmas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level shortwave that moved through most of Southcentral
today will linger over the north-eastern Copper River Basin and
slowly weaken through Tuesday afternoon. This will keep the clouds
in and temperatures overnight will be quite a bit warmer than
last night. Otherwise, a few snow showers linger over the western
Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet with a second weak upper level
disturbance, but these are expected to diminish through the next
24 hours.

High pressure will continue to build in over the area for the next
48 hours, so challenges remain fog and outflow winds. Currently,
light winds are allowing some fog to form in channeled areas on
the Kenai, such as near Seward. Northerly winds should begin to
increase tonight, lessening the chance of fog in that area.
However, light winds do leave a chance of fog over Cook Inlet and
in the Copper River Valley. Northerly outflow winds should pick up
on Tuesday, as the ridge continues to build. These winds will be
gusty but are not expected to be a major event and should have
little impact other than bringing Small Craft Advisories to some
of the smaller marine areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The pattern across the southwest is slowly transitional tonight
through Tuesday across the Southwest as surface ridging builds
from the interior. Aloft, a trough along the eastern Bering sends
short waves over the area which aids in snow shower development
until Tuesday morning, then snow should diminish as the trough
shears apart. Patchy dense fog will be the main challenge during
this timeframe as low level moisture and temperature inversions
are not easy to refine within a shifting pattern; however, any
dense fog that develops should be relatively brief as the air mass
is drying out with evidence on this from satellite trends during
the afternoon.

Drier offshore flow sets up Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperature trends cool significantly Wednesday night with minimal
rebound on Thursday since cold dense air spills over from the
central interior. Northerly winds increasing Thursday morning are
expected to bring wind chills to 15 below.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Low pressure across the central Bering waters will bring gusty
conditions along its core through Tuesday morning then this system
shears apart between two approaching lows from the North Pacific
and a building ridge to the northeast. The low pressure system
furthest east moves toward the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday morning,
but does not make northward progress to the Bering as a dominant
ridge over the interior expands toward the southwest coast. Wind
direction changes and gusty winds are the primary changes along
the frontal boundary with increased chances of snow and rain for
the south side of the Peninsula and Aleutians.

The second more powerful system is currently on a slow track with
the parent low west of the Kamchatka Peninsula pushing an
extensive frontal boundary which is tapping into deep subtropical
moisture. Models are struggling with the progression of this
system as they are handling a ridge center over Kamchatka which
vies for position over the Bering. Expect gusty max strength gales
with this system as the pressure gradient is squeezed between
these synoptic features. The main precipitation band should stay
south of the Aleutian Chain through Thursday, however there is
still a bit of uncertainty on the placement of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The upper level low in the Arctic is still slated to dig into
western Alaska by mid-week and become nearly stationary somewhere
in the Norton Sound area for the second half of the week. Upper
level high pressure will persist over the Yukon during this time
frame as well with the storm track remaining well south of the
state. What all this means for the weather is that temperatures
will drop down to near normal or a little cooler than normal over
most of southern mainland Alaska with periods of clear skies.

The Aleutians will see some snow or rain/snow showers as some
weak lows track through that region, but the main storm track
where the strong storms will go is south of there.

This pattern is likely to change during the weekend as the upper
level low weakens and we get into a more southerly push aloft.
This will bring in more mild temperatures as the storm track
heads closer to southern Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...EZ