Gale Warning 679, NWS Anchorage, AK

662 
FZAK62 PAFC 141303
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150200-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 50N 173E with an associated front deepens to 966 mb 
at 55N 178W by Fri morning and then moves to 53N 170W at 982 mb by 
Sat morning. A 967 mb low at 56N 164W Fri morning moves inland over 
Southwest Alaska by Fri night.

$$

PKZ411-150200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Isolated 
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 11
to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW 10 to 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 31 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
403 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

700 
FZAK62 PAFC 150025
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151415-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A broad and complex 972 mb low centered near 54N 179W will
strengthen to 968 mb at 53N 175W Fri afternoon before moving to
56N 158W at 980 mb Sat afternoon. A 981 mb North Pacific low will
quickly strengthen to 968 mb Fri morning over Bristol Bay then 
slowly weaken over Nunivak Island through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 32 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 31 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

652 
FZAK62 PAFC 151224
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160230-
324 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A broad and complex 967 mb low centered near 56N 171W will 
strengthen to 964 mb near 60N 169W by Sat morning then move near 57N
154W at 989 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-160230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
324 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
324 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N this afternoon. Seas 12 to 
18 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
324 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt, becoming N 15 to 30kt W of 175W this 
afternoon. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
324 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW late morning. Seas 10 ft. 
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

951 
FZAK62 PAFC 160038
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161430-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 964 mb low at 59N 165W loops over the Eastern Bering then dives
into the Western Gulf of Alaska at 998 mb by Sun afternoon. A 970
mb low near 54N 176W moves to the Northern Gulf of Alaska for Sun
afternoon. The associated front arches over the Bering through 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 24 to 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

836 
FZAK62 PAFC 161217
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170215-
317 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 61N 167W moves to 57N 160W at 990 mb Sun morning
and then moves into the Gulf and dissipates by Sun night. A front
associated with a 952 mb low at 56N 170E Sun afternoon moves
across the Bering through Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W late afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 18 to 30 ft in the afternoon. Rain and 
snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 31 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 24 to 29 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon.
Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow showers and rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain 
showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

120 
FZAK62 PAFC 170002
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171415-
302 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 mb low at 59N 166W becomes a 986 mb low near 57N 156W tonight 
and continues across the Gulf of Alaska for Mon afternoon. The 
associated front moves into the Eastern Bering Sun evening. A 985 mb 
Kamchatka low deepens to 949 mb Mon morning. Its associated front 
moves across the Bering and Aleutians by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
302 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 17 to 29
ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 30 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 to 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 28 to 32 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
302 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft building to 9 to 17 ft in the afternoon. 
Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft building to 24
to 30 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
302 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
302 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 11 to 19 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 AM AKST Wed Dec 13 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern remains largely unchanged over the region this
morning as deep southerly flow between the North American ridge
and the Bering trough keeps warm, wet, and windy conditions
focused over the southern mainland. The latest in the long series
of systems embedded in this southerly flow is currently moving
over Kodiak Island, with an associated front approaching the Gulf
coast. In terms of sensible weather impacts, this is promoting
what have now become very familiar conditions across the region,
with rain focused along the coast and interior areas staying drier
as a result of downslope flow in the lee of the coastal mountain
ranges. Strong gap winds are also present through favored areas
such as Turnagain Arm. Meanwhile, scattered snow showers prevail
in northerly flow over the central Bering, with a weak front
bringing rain and gusty winds to the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are now in good agreement for the system currently
impacting the Gulf and also for the large scale pattern in the
coming days as the ridge finally begins to break down with the
Bering trough shifting eastward towards the mainland. There are
still plenty of small scale differences as this slight pattern
change begins to take shape, with the NAM being a notable outlier
among the 00z guidance with respect to the evolution of the Bering
surface low by Thursday night/Friday. For the morning package,
used the NAM early on for the current system and then transitioned
to a GFS/EC blend to capture the broad strokes of the coming
pattern change.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Low level wind shear will continue to impact the terminal
through late morning as a front pushes inland along the North Gulf
Coast. Southeast winds will then move into the terminal around 20z
as the down inlet pressure gradient weakens and reverses. This
will also be the most likely time for showers to develop in the
vicinity of the terminal as downslope flow briefly subsides. VFR
conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong front over the north Gulf coast will work its way
inland today. The bulk of the precipitation with this system will
fall along the coast and coastal mountains. However, there is
enough moisture and dynamics with this system that some
precipitation is also expected at many inland locations. The air
mass remains quite warm, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. This also means that the precipitation will fall as rain
at most of the lower elevation locations. Weak anticyclonic flow
aloft will push into the area tonight behind this system, leaving
just a few showers over the area. The eastern Copper river basin
will remain in fairly deep moisture and precipitation will be slow
to move out on Thursday. A subtle shift in the pattern will begin
on Thursday as the strong southerly flow aloft moves east, and
the flow becomes more southwesterly. A weak system will cross the
Gulf from southwest to northeast on Thursday. A fairly strong
front associated with a low in the southeast Bering Sea will
approach Kodiak late Thursday night as the southwest flow aloft
increases in strength.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Wednesday and
Thursday)...

A low centered near Kodiak Island early this morning will track a
bit west of due north into interior Southwest Alaska later this
morning, then move to near Norton Sound late this afternoon. On
this track, precipitation will continue across the area through
the day today. It should remain snow across the Kuskokwim Delta,
though much less total precipitation is expected there today.
Meanwhile for Bristol Bay it will be all rain. As cooler air
works in behind the center of the low, any rain that develops in
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning should mix with snow
during the day. Any steady precipitation will diminish to flurries
and isolated snow showers tonight as weak high pressure builds in,
along with some slightly cooler air. Thursday and much of Thursday
night will be quiet weather-wise in between systems, though
mainly mountain snow showers will still be around. The next front
with a renewed slug of warm air moves into Bristol Bay late
Thursday night into Friday morning, with snow at the onset
transitioning over to rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Wednesday
and Thursday)...

A front moving into the western Bering this morning will be the
start of somewhat of a pattern change through the region as it
allows for the return of warmer air. The cold air mass currently moving
through the central Bering will slide eastward into coastal
mainland Alaska, and the associated northerly winds will diminish
as weak high pressure sets up. Meanwhile the western Bering front
will slowly press eastward, reaching the central Bering by
Thursday morning, as multiple weak areas of low pressure develop
along the baroclinic zone and help gradually advance the warmer
air mass eastward. The strongest of those lows will take advantage
of plentiful jet energy across the north Pacific to deepen as it
crosses the central Aleutians somewhere between Adak and Dutch
Harbor Thursday evening. The models are having a very difficult
time handling this, so uncertainty with the track and any impacts
in any particular location are still quite high. As the low
approaches the Pribilofs Thursday night it will become cut off
from the jet energy feeding it and will stall, with track
uncertainties only further increasing from there. The impacts from
the low through the central Bering, Pribilofs and the central and
eastern Aleutians will be widespread precipitation, mainly in the
form of rain, gusty winds, and a long duration as the low stalls.
Meanwhile the warm front will continue eastward across the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday night, reaching Southwest
Alaska and Bristol Bay by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The weather pattern will remain active through day 7(Tuesday). We
expect a continuation of the train of lows moving into the Gulf
of Alaska and Bering Sea. The models continue to struggle with
this pattern and coming into agreement on the location and
intensity of these storms for the entire extended forecast period.

Beginning Thursday a strong low is moving to the western Alaska
Peninsula area, though where exactly is still uncertain, pushing a
front into the Gulf of Alaska. The ensemble mean looks to be the
best path forward at this point. By Friday the deterministic
operational model runs differ significantly with respect to where
the low center will be. This storm should be in the Eastern
Bering Sea by Friday, but here again, the models diverge with the
placement of the low center. This has a significant impact on the
sensible weather over the southern mainland and the Bering
Sea/Aleutians. As we progress through the weekend the models do
come into agreement bringing the strong large low to the Prince
William Sound region by Sunday thus finally breaking down the
blocking ridge over the west coast of North America. The big take
away from this will be a trend to cooler temperatures as we near
the weekend and into early next week. Beyond Sunday the models
once again diverge and have significantly different solutions
Monday and Tuesday, thus overall confidence in the extended
forecast is on the low side. The overall approach to the extended
forecast will be to nudge and trend toward the ensemble solution,
but in general we will not be making any big changes to the
forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 125

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
LONG TERM...SA