Gale Warning 448, NWS Anchorage, AK

371 
FZAK51 PAFC 192300
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-201145-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A trough along the northern Gulf weakens through tonight. A front
enters the Western Gulf Wed evening.

$$

PKZ119-201145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind less than 10 kt except 20 kt south of Cape Cleare. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind less than 10 kt except 20 kt south of Cape 
Cleare. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-201145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-201145-
Resurrection Bay-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-201145-
Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-201145-
Port Valdez-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-201145-
Valdez Narrows-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming SW less than 10 kt. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-201145-
Valdez Arm-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-201145-
Passage Canal-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-201145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-201145-
Barren Islands East-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-201145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-201145-
Chiniak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-201145-
Marmot Bay-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-201145-
Shelikof Strait-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-201145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-201145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-201145-
Kachemak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A long wave upper trough stretches southeast from the Chukchi
Sea, across Southwest Alaska, to over the western Gulf of Alaska.
This feature is producing widespread cloud cover across much of
Southwest Alaska and Southcentral. Radar and surface observations
show areas of rain across Southwest Alaska, western/northern
Gulf, and inland areas of Southcentral west of the Copper River
Basin. Brisk and gusty west to northwest winds, associated with
weak cold advection on the backside of a southeast moving cold
front, were evident across coastal Southwest Alaska/Bristol Bay
to over the Barren Islands/western Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in good agreement of features affecting the
Mainland and Gulf of Alaska. The GFS/ECMWF have a better handle
on a developing low heading north toward the Aleutians Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds should prevail through tonight. Abundant low
level moisture will give rise to low VFR to high MVFR ceilings
this afternoon into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level low currently centered over Kodiak will slowly move
SE across the Gulf tonight. A weak deformation zone near the top
of low will continue to support areas of precipitation across
southcentral through the rest of the evening. Rain will taper off
west to east across the area tonight as an upper level ridge
builds in quickly behind it. The building ridge from the west will
tighten the pressure gradient across the AKPEN leading to gusty
NW winds tonight and tomorrow, especially through channeled
terrain including Kamishak Bay and along the Southern Kodiak
Coast. Generally pleasant weather can be expected across
Southcentral tomorrow and into Wednesday as high pressure
dominates the region. A weak system moving across Western AK will
clip the northern portions of the area on Wednesday, with light
rain expected as far south as the Mat-Su, though downsloping off
the leeward side of the AK Range should limit the amount of
precipitation. On Wednesday night, skies should temporarily clear
enough to produce the coldest temperatures of the season.
Temperatures are expected to cool down into the upper 30's to low
40's across Anchorage and the Mat-Su, while low 30's to possible
sub-freezing temps are expected in the Copper River Valley as well
as Talkeetna. The next system looks to move into the area on
Thursday spreading steady rain from south to north across most of
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Precipitation will be on a downward trend across the southwest
mainland this evening as the upper level trough over western
Alaska is replaced by weak transient ridging. This will bring a
period of drier conditions to the greater Bristol Bay region
through Wednesday, however the break in precipitation will be
more short lived across the northern part of the area as a fast
moving system tracks from the northern Bering into the Yukon
Delta tonight. This will bring a trailing front across the
Kuskokwim Delta and the lower Kuskokwim Valley beginning early
Tuesday morning, with showers continuing into Wednesday. More
robust precipitation will return to the Bristol Bay region by late
Wednesday as a front extending from a North Pacific low begins to
push inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Benign cloudy conditions will prevail across most of the Bering in
the presence of surface high pressure and dry northeast flow
through Tuesday afternoon before the front arrives over the
Central and Eastern Aleutians. This will be accompanied by rain
and gale force winds, with these conditions spreading east to the
Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night and then north to the Pribilof
Islands on Wednesday. The parent North Pacific low will keep rainy
conditions over the central part of the chain through midweek as
it lingers south of Adak.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Wednesday night, there will
be an elongated arctic trough over the northern part of Alaska
with a secondary North Pacific trough centered over the Eastern
Aleutians. A very strong Northeast Pacific subtropical ridge will
be south of the Gulf of Alaska. This will set in motion a broad
region of southwesterly flow aloft over Southern Alaska with rain
impacting the entire region. This pattern will continue through
Saturday with wet and cloudy weather, although no significant
heavy rainfall. By Saturday evening, the pattern becomes a bit
more complicated as the most recent simulations of the GFS and
ECMWF deterministic models have trended toward a strong secondary
subtropical warm front merging with the arctic trough. The
associated low would track into the Gulf of Alaska and toward
Southcentral sometime Saturday evening into Sunday, bringing a
swatch of possibly gale force winds to the coast and another batch
of rain, locally heavy along the coast. Either way, even with that
uncertainty, there is high confidence that the overall pattern
will keep a trough aloft and moist flow directed at Southern
Alaska. This will keep wetter conditions in place into the next
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA