Gale Warning 377, NWS Anchorage, AK

328 
FZAK51 PAFC 091558 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-100315-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front over the southwest Gulf will dissipate as it lifts northward
across the western Gulf on Wed. A ridge of high pressure will 
persist over the northern to eastern Gulf through Thu...then weaken 
Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-100315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-100315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-100315-
Resurrection Bay-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher S of Caines Head. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher S of Caines Head. Widespread
rain showers. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-100315-
Prince William Sound-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt in the morning becoming E 
wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-100315-
Port Valdez-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-100315-
Valdez Narrows-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-100315-
Valdez Arm-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-100315-
Passage Canal-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-100315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-100315-
Barren Islands East-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-100315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-100315-
Chiniak Bay-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-100315-
Marmot Bay-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-100315-
Shelikof Strait-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-100315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-100315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-100315-
Kachemak Bay-
758 AM AKDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 PM AKDT Tue Aug 8 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude trough extends southward from a closed low just
south of the Alaska Peninsula down to around 35N latitude, with a
corresponding high amplitude ridge downstream along the west coast
of North America on up into western Canada. A strong jet southerly
jet in between the two is transporting warm and moist air northward
to Kodiak Island and across the Alaska Peninsula into Southwest
Alaska. At the moment, rainfall is fairly light through this
corridor, but a strong vorticity-maximum rounding the base of the
trough is poised to produce much heavier rain as it approaches,
especially for (southeastern facing) upslope areas of Kodiak
Island and the Alaska Peninsula. The ridging out ahead of this is
providing for dry conditions across most of Southcentral Alaska,
with warm and sunny conditions inland.

Out west, a deep closed low over the west-central Bering is dropping
southward toward the Aleutians with a narrow dissipating frontal
boundary bringing rain to the central Aleutians. Otherwise, the
very typical low clouds and fog dominates the Bering Sea and
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance remains in solid agreement with the large scale
picture for the next couple days as the upper trough lifts northward
toward mainland Alaska. There are some differences in timing and
amplitude of the short-waves moving through the trough (or around
the upper low center). Most notably, the NAM/ECMWF solutions are
faster in moving short-wave through Southcentral Thursday due to
less consolidation of upper level energy into the short-wave. This
creates uncertainty in timing of rainfall, though the probability
that it will occur over much of Southcentral sometime Wednesday
night through Thursday is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level ridge will continue to move north across eastern
portions of southcentral this afternoon and evening bringing
mostly sunny skies and above average temperatures for the next 12
hours. A low pressure system currently centered south of the
Alaska Peninsula will continue to move north this evening into
tomorrow bringing heavy rain and winds to Kodiak Island and the
Kenai Peninsula. Near gale force winds will impact the eastern
side of Kodiak Island, the Barren Islands, and Kamishak Bay.
Strong up-slope flow will lead to heavy rain with heaviest amounts
on the windward side of the Kodiak and Kenai mountains, with rain
accumulations totaling between 2-4" for these locations,
including the city of Kodiak, by Thursday. Downsloping will keep
locations on the leeward side of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains
initially dry on Wednesday before a few showers move through
during the afternoon and evening hours. A shortwave trough will
move into southcentral by Thursday morning bringing widespread
rain to the Northern Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and the Mat-
Su through the end of the day on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper levels have a vertically stacked closed low with a 1005
mb low reflected at the surface located over the Shumagin Islands.
While at 300 mb there is a 95 knot southeasterly jet streak over
the lower Alaska Peninsula. This synoptic feature is streaming
moisture from the North Pacific Ocean across the Alaska Peninsula
into the Bristol Bay region. This steady stream of moisture is
flowing from the south to north, and is spilling over into the
rest of the Southwest Alaska area. The radar imagery is reflecting
a large echo of rain over the Bristol Bay this evening before
spreading into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and the Kuskokwim
Delta. Therefore, look for widespread wetting rains for the
Southwest Alaska region through Thursday. The winds will become
easterly creating downslope conditions, and look for drier
conditions to occur along the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
There is a weak 1002 mb low over the western Bering that is
tracking southward before crossing the Western Aleutians into the
North Pacific Ocean by Wednesday afternoon time-frame. While a
1007 mb Low over the Shumagin Islands will track over the Eastern
Aleutians, and will become almost stationary over the Chain
through Thursday. This feature increases the surface pressure
gradient over the Eastern Bering, and creates gusty southeasterly
to easterly winds. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure ridge build
off the Kamchatka Peninsula into the western Bering. Therefore,
look for marine layer stratus/fog to develop as the aforementioned
synoptic feature builds into the western Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7 / Friday through Tuesday)...
On Friday the upper level pattern will feature the upper low that
had been near the Alaska Peninsula beginning to slide eastward
into the Gulf. While for the most part associated precipitation
remains near the coast, instability showers inland will be
possible.

The next feature of great interest will be another
digging trough that will bring the area, particularly Southwest
Alaska, its first real taste of autumn on Saturday. Broad
northerly flow directly out of the Arctic pushes into the region,
causing widespread shower activity, particularly the further north
you go. The cold air moving in aloft may even be enough to touch
off a round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as the instability
increases, particularly across the Susitna Valley and Copper
River Basin.

Model continuity rapidly degrades from Sunday onward regarding how
the strong trough/upper level low over northern Alaska interacts
with a compact upper level low over the western and central
Aleutians. The spread ranges from the GFS, which depicts no
interaction, causing the low over the Aleutians to be ejected
southeastward into the north Pacific. The result is broad
northerly flow over the mainland, and very pleasant, sunny
(outside of mountain showers), seasonable weather for much of
southern mainland Alaska. The Canadian is the middle ground,
forecasting the Aleutian low to interact and move into Southern
Alaska on Monday, allowing a brief break in the rain and one day
of nice weather on Sunday. The EC is the wettest solution, showing
the low interacting with the trough over the central Aleutians on
Sunday, then moving into Southwest Alaska and cutting off into a
newly reinvigorated low that stalls out and leads to area wide
rain from Sunday evening right through Tuesday and beyond.

Thus, a small difference in the models as to how the trough over
northern Alaska interacts (or doesn't) with a small low over the
Aleutians makes all the difference in the world as to how early
next week's weather plays out. Stay tuned.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JW