Gale Warning 341, NWS Anchorage, AK

757 
FZAK51 PAFC 290005
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291245-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 MB LOW 60 NM NORTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON TRACKS
NORTHWARD OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN EVENING.
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DISSIPATES SUN EVENING. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TUE 
EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-291245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-291245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-291245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-291245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-291245-
PORT VALDEZ-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-291245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-291245-
VALDEZ ARM-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-291245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-291245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-291245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-291245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-291245-
CHINIAK BAY-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-291245-
MARMOT BAY-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-291245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-291245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-291245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-291245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
405 PM AKDT SUN MAY 28 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Sat May 27 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water Vapor and IR satellite imagery shows a deep stream of
moisture advecting north across the Gulf of Alaska between an
upper low center southwest of Kodiak Island and high pressure
along the northeast Pacific. Clouds overspread the southern
mainland this morning with a few isolated showers across the
region as weak disturbances moved ahead of the upper low. This
system is currently stacked with a 1006 mb surface center pushing
a front into the southern gulf this afternoon. Marine winds are
primarily southeast in the small craft range along the gulf, with
lighter east flow along the Kenai Peninsula and Inlet. Inland,
winds are generally out of the south this afternoon with a few
gusts along the Knik Arm and across the Copper river.

To the west...scattered showers are developing across the
southwest this afternoon as a short wave moves inland from the
Bering. A ridge parked over the central Bering is trapping low
clouds over the central and eastern waters with a front pushing
along its western periphery.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The main challenge in the forecast through Monday is the timing
of the front moving up from Kodiak Island. Models are in good
agreement with the general synoptic pattern through the short
term, however there are some minor differences on how the low
pressure system near Kodiak lifts north on Sunday and Monday. Only
minor changes were made as trends continue to bring the main
frontal passage across Southcentral late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The most noticeable changes in the inherited forecast
were wind adjustments for Southcentral as the ridge building along
the northeast gulf progressed slower than anticipated today.

A few changes were also made along the western Bering for winds
as all models came into agreement on a surface low center tracking
along the western waters to the central Aleutians Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mid level clouds will continue to stream in from the gulf as the
next front moves up from Kodiak Island. A few showers are expected
to develop in the vicinity, however VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the next TAF package as southeasterly flow
downslopes rain chances over the terminal. Winds are going to be
light until the front begins to push north. There is still
uncertainty of the timing of the front, however all models are
currently showing the frontal passage late Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper trough is digging into the NPAC southwest of Kodiak
Island this evening. A plume of warm air advection and a leading
surface warm front are moving into the North Gulf, and this will
increase moisture and precipitation rates along the coast. Cross-
barrier flow will be rather efficient at downsloping most regions
downwind of the coastal mountains and the Chugach/Kenai Mountains,
but some light showers will be possible given the mostly southerly
flow aloft and deep layer warm air advection through early
tomorrow morning. Heavy precipitation in excess of 2-4" will
pummel the coast through Sunday night before tapering off Monday
morning as the upper trough lifts north.

Monday will be more of a challenge as the shortwave trough lifts
north into Southcentral. The main feed of deep layer moisture will
cutoff, but so will downsloping. Forcing for mass ascent along
the trough axis will help support some inland rain/showers for a
brief period Monday, but timing of the upper low is still slightly
uncertain at this time.

Winds with this system will help accelerate increasing southeast
gap winds, especially through favored areas like Turnagain Arm and
gaps in the Chugach/Kenai Mountains. Winds will also increase to
25 to 30 knots through Prince William Sound, so small craft
boaters should prepare wisely. The gradient will weaken late
Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A stationary trough extending south through southwest Alaska will
keep an unstable environment over the area allowing for showers to
continue through the weekend. With this setup there is also a
chance for thunderstorms to develop around the Kilbuck Mountains
this afternoon/evening. As an upper level low south of the Alaska
Peninsula tracks north over southwest Alaska more thunderstorms
are possible in the corridor from Bristol Bay to the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley Sunday afternoon/evening and Monday
afternoon/evening. As the low diminishes and continues north,
showers will diminish around southwest Alaska Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
Ridging over the Central Bering will slowly track east through
Monday keeping low clouds over the area and also keeping precip
off to the west. The ridging will block a low over the western
Bering from pushing east which will cause it to stall near the
Western Aleutians into Monday night bringing rain to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended forecast period Sunday evening, there will
be a dynamic shortwave trough lifting north from Kodiak Island
with an extensive upper ridge extending from the Southwest United
States mainland to the Yukon. Another, much lower magnitude
shortwave ridge will be across the Bering Sea. As is typical in
this pattern, there will be a frontal zone moving into the North
Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound along with extensive rain
along the coast. With a negative tilt to the upper trough, there
will be rather efficient cross-barrier downslope drying across the
coastal mountains and the Chugach Mountains. By Monday morning,
this shortwave trough will be lifting into the interior part of
Alaska, with a south to north drying trend through the day as
showers become more scattered.

Uncertainty develops after Monday as all global numerical models
simulate the development of a broad low developing over the North
Pacific then moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska. Here, the
details matter, and the ECMWF and Canadian GDPS are depicting a
slightly farther south track than the more north GFS. The slower
solutions delay the progression of a front moving toward the coast
by an entire day and a half compared to the more bullish GFS.
However, the pattern by mid week is rather similar in all models
with extensive coastal precipitation with extensive clouds and
mountain precipitation inland. For now, the WPC approach was
favored (i.e., a blend of ensemble means which are better at
dealing with uncertainty and will take a more middle ground
approach). This means Southern Alaska should anticipate a return
to cloudy weather by Tuesday, although with this downslope
pattern, expect temps to return back to normal if not slightly
above normal. For inland areas, while uncertainty exists, these
patterns tend to be rather dry and strong east to southeast upper
flow results in efficient downslope drying.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...JA