Gale Warning 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

029 
FZAK51 PAFC 060047
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061415-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. A 1001 MB LOW FORMS 165 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MON MORNING AND MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
KLAWOCK AT 1006 MB BY TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

$$

PKZ119-061415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 7 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061415-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR THE PORT DEVELOPING IN
THE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR THE PORT DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061415-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...WIND N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061415-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061415-
MARMOT BAY-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-061415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 PM AKST SUN MAR 5 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKST Sat Mar 4 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern continues to hold firm with an impressive ridge over
the Bering and a deep trough over the ALCAN. A warm front was able
to climb over top of the ridge and bring some light snow to the
Pribilofs. It also pushed some of the coldest air back into the
Interior instead of over Southwest AK. Meanwhile, most of
Southcentral experienced its coldest morning of this pattern
this morning as winds died off overnight across most of the area.
Abundant March sunshine is leading to fairly quick warming across
most areas east of the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges.

As the ridge reorients some today and weak energy spills over it,
it will bring the gustier conditions to the westerly gaps such as
Whittier and the Barren Islands. A 145 kt jet moving from the
Seward Peninsula through the Gulf of AK is helping to mix down
some of these gustier winds. A separate 95 kt of the jet
continues to ferry weak areas of lower pressure into the Western
Aleutians. These are bringing some pulses of rain and snow and
small-craft level winds to locations from Atka west.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in excellent agreement which is resulting in high
forecast confidence. The synoptic pattern will change little
through the course of the next several days. Most of the models
have trended slightly stronger with the energy dropping southward
from an Arctic low in the Beaufort Sea on Sun. This looks to
produce another round of strong winds through places like Thompson
Pass and the Copper River Delta. The exact timing and strength of
this remains somewhat in question, but hi-res models were use to
trend winds stronger.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
through most of the period. Winds should become slightly gustier
around midday Sun as a shortwave passes through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Northwest flow aloft will become more northerly on Sunday with the
passage of an upper level trough. This will increase the offshore
gradient across south central Alaska. Winds could reach warning
levels across Thompson Pass and Valdez, though this event looks
weaker and shorter lived than the event of last Thursday-Friday.
The offshore gradient will weaken again Monday as the main jet
stream pushes westward and the dynamics/upper flow weaken.
Night time temperature forecasts continue to be difficult due to
the large differences between areas that keep the winds all night
and those that de-couple.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front lingering along the Bering coast will provide a slight
chance of snow showers tonight. Building high pressure will
push any lingering clouds to the south. Sunny days and generally
clear and cold nights are then expected through Tue, with some
coastal fog developing late tonight through Sun morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A front will decay over the eastern bering through Sun with some
lingering snow showers over the Pribilof islands. The eastern
Bering will then dry beneath building high pressure through Tue. A
second front with small craft and gale force wind will bring
rain, mixing with snow at times, to the western and central
Aleutians Sun through Tue before dissipating. A third front will
bring snow and gale force winds to the western Aleutians Mon night
through Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The high amplitude ridge/trough pattern will continue to bring
cold, dry and locally windy conditions to Mainland Alaska through
the week. By Monday night and Tuesday, the upper level ridge axis
will extend from the eastern Aleutians, across the Pribilof Islands
and through the Gulf of Anadyr to well north of 70N. To the east
of the ridge, a very broad upper level trough will extend from the
Arctic Ocean and far Northern Canada, across Mainland and Southeast
Alaska and into Western Canada. The cold air mass currently in
place will continue to be reinforced by the northerly flow aloft
and arctic shortwaves digging down the east side of the upper
level ridge.

The entire pattern will shift gradually east through the week with
the upper level ridge axis tilting east into Southwest Alaska
Wednesday and Thursday and the strongest northerly flow progressing
east across Southcentral Alaska. The upper level ridge will bring
significant warming aloft with it as it pushes onshore bringing
an increasing potential for fog and low stratus to Southwest
Alaska from Wednesday night onward. Throughout the week, frontal
systems will continue to track across the western Aleutians and
into the Bering through the southerly flow on the west side of the
ridge.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 131.
MARINE...Gale 126 128 185.
		 Storm 127.
 	 	 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126 127 129-131 138 139 141 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...JR