Gale Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

930 
FZAK62 PAFC 241251
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250130-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 972 MB LOW NEAR
55N 164W WILL MOVE TO 57N 165W WED MORNING AT 974 MB AND STEADILY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 47N 178W
WILL MOVE TO 50N 166W WED MORNING AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-250130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 24 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Mon Jan 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The area of low pressure that drove a powerful front through the
Bering Sea on Sunday has begun to weaken this morning as it
travels just to the south of Atka. The front across the Bering Sea
has long since occluded and a pretty rapid decrease of wind speeds
across the Bering Sea have been observed. The swath of the
strongest winds remains over the Pribilof Islands and arcs
westward toward Adak. Blizzard conditions have continued at the
Pribilof Islands as intense snowfall has coupled with winds
gusting close to 60 kts to create white-out conditions. These
conditions will likely persist through much of the day as the
frontal boundary stalls near Saint George Island. The Kuskokwim
Delta remains on the cold side of the low pressure system south of
the Aleutian Islands as temperatures remain between -15 to -25
degrees Fahrenheit. Gusty winds ahead of the front in the Bering
Sea has coupled with these frigid temperatures to produce wind
chill vales between 40 below to 50 below. Temperatures have been
warming slightly overnight due to increasing cloud cover and winds
have also been steadily diminishing which will likely keep wind
chills just above 40 below and allow for the wind chill advisory
to be cancelled with morning package.

Southcentral Alaska is on the quiet side for a change after all
the recent snowfall. The trough that brought copious amounts of
snowfall to much of Southcentral Alaska has finally shifted
eastward toward the US/Canada border and and upper level ridge
has taken its place. Clearing skies early this morning have
allowed temperatures to drop a good bit below normal but no where
to the degree observed last week. As cloud cover increases ahead
of the frontal boundary in the Bering Sea and western Gulf of
Alaska, temperatures should steadily warm over Kodiak, the Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Numerical guidance remains in pretty good agreement overall and
with the evolution of the occluded front currently draped across
the central Bering Sea. Models have been a touch on the fast side
with precipitation changing from snow to rain across the Alaska
Peninsula this morning but continue to handle the winds associated
with the front very well. While minor discrepancies are seen among
the guidance in regards to the frontal timing through the Gulf of
Alaska, a transition to a warmer pattern is expected across
southern Alaska. The GFS was the model of choice this morning
based on the initialization of the frontal precip over the Bering
and Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the
day although some low stratus is to be expected. A few snow
showers will be possible this afternoon but should be confined to
the mountains with strong cross-barrier flow over the Chugach. The
same cross-barrier flow will likely cause decent wind shear this
evening through Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An impressive front is the main focus today. Water vapor imagery
this morning indicates a stream of moisture surging northwards
from the tropics. As a result, widespread precipitation is
expected along much of the northern gulf coast as the front pushes
from west to east through Tuesday afternoon. The main uncertainty
is precipitation type. While this system will bring ample warm air
northward, cold air is still in place from Seward to Valdez and
cold drainage flows are expected to persist as the front
approaches. Snow to liquid water ratios will likely be on the
lower end around 1 to 10 in contrast to the event earlier this
week. However, up to a foot of heavy wet snow is still possible
in the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Thompson pass as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread snow moving into Bristol Bay along with gusty northerly
winds will bring developing areas of blowing snow to western
Bristol Bay today. The worst conditions will likely develop around
mid-morning when a strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the
front will create gusty north winds, which along with a fresh and
very dry snow will produce limited visibilities in blowing snow
especially to the Dillingham area. Over eastern Bristol Bay (such
as King Salmon and Iliamna), downsloping from the Aleutian Range
will keep much of the accumulating snow from reaching the ground,
though light accumulations from passing showers wouldn't be out of
the question. Snow will then spread northward into the Kuskokwim
Valley and Delta this afternoon, however with lighter winds and
snowfall significant areas of blowing snow are not expected. As
winds throughout the area diminish late tonight, snow showers will
continue to move through the area as the upper level trough
approaches from the west, though accumulations are expected to be
lighter than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Now that the Bering front begins to move inland, winds over much
of the area will diminish this afternoon as the low weakens moves
to the east. Blizzard conditions will continue this morning near
Saint Paul as the western edge of the front weakens overhead.
Expect conditions to then improve by late this afternoon as the
front begins to break up, allowing the winds and snow to diminish.
The upper level trough will then spread throughout the Eastern
Bering as it weakens on Tuesday, producing showers but with much
lighter winds throughout the area that will continue into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The longwave trough continues to remain over the the Bering
extending southward into the North Pacific Ocean by midweek. This
synoptic feature moves eastward, becomes negatively tilted before
moving into the Gulf by Friday. This coincides with the strong
southeast to northwest jet streak tracking into the Southeast
Panhandle by Wednesday. This pattern remains intact through next
weekend. The Southcentral Alaska, and the Gulf will have a
warming trend heading with temperatures to rise above freezing by
the midweek time-frame through the weekend. This results in
abundant moisture streaming into the Southcentral region resulting
in a wintry mix along the coastal communities. While the interior
sets up with a better scenario for moderate snowfall in favored
mountain regions. Meanwhile, the majority of the Bering Sea
temperatures remains cold with the northerly flow through Friday
before a warming trend begins from the Western Aleutian/Bering by
Saturday spreading eastward. This coincides with a storm force
low tracking over the Kamchatka Peninsula with associated front
draping through the Western Aleutians. Looking at the models, they
continue to struggling with the complex low in the North Pacific
Ocean as it tracks eastward along the Eastern Aleutians by
Wednesday before moving into the Southwest Alaska region. The
next model issue pertains to a North Pacific low tracking into the
Gulf by Friday. The GFS takes this system over the eastern Gulf,
and the ECWMF tracks this low near Kodiak Island. These storm
tracks will bring warmer temperatures to the Southcentral region.
Therefore, the forecast confidence is below average with these
discrepancies with the storm track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 195
         Winter Weather Advisory 161
MARINE...Storm 119 125 177 179
         Gale 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 160 165 174 175 176
              178 180 181 185
         Heavy Freezing Spray 180 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1118 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S ST. PAUL            57.15N 170.22W
01/22/2017  M68.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0844 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW ST. GEORGE         56.58N 169.66W
01/22/2017  M76.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0856 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N ADAK STATION        51.89N 176.65W
01/23/2017  M61.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

1000 AM     BLIZZARD         4 S ST. PAUL            57.15N 170.22W
01/23/2017                                      AK   ASOS

            ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH OBS REPORTING LESS THAN
            1/4 MILE VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY AND MODERATE
            TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR LAST 24 HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS
            40-50 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-65 MPH. NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS MOST
            OF THE TOWN IS CLOSED DOWN INCLUDING SCHOOLS AND STORES.

1116 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S ST. PAUL            57.15N 170.22W
01/23/2017                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ROOF TILES BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

&&

RDUELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1149 AM AKST MON JAN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     BLIZZARD         COLD BAY                55.22N 162.74W
01/22/2017                                      AK   ASOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED BETWEEN 12PM AND 6PM WITH
            VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 SM AND WINDS GUSTING UP
            TO 68 MPH. NO DAMAGE OR CLOSURES REPORTED.

0600 PM     BLIZZARD         KING COVE               55.06N 162.30W
01/22/2017                                      AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM WITH
            1/4 SM VISIBILITY, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, AND GUSTS UP
            TO 61 MPH. NO DAMAGE REPORTED BY KING COVE POLICE,
            HOWEVER SOME BUSINESSES CLOSED DOWN FOR THE BLIZZARD
            SUNDAY. SCHOOL THE NEXT DAY HAD A 2 HOUR DELAY.

&&

RDUELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     BLIZZARD         3 SSW UNALASKA          53.89N 166.53W
01/22/2017                                      AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM WITH
            1/4 MI VISIBILITY AND GUSTS UP TO 71 MPH. POLICE HAD NO
            REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE, HOWEVER THERE WERE MANY
            VEHICLES STUCK IN THE SNOW. A TRAVEL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
            TO TRY TO KEEP PEOPLE OFF THE ROADS. ROAD CREWS WORKED
            LATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE ROADS BEFORE THE
            MORNING. NO ROAD IMPACTS REPORTED MONDAY.

&&

RDUELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
136 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     BLIZZARD         3 SSW UNALASKA          53.89N 166.53W
01/22/2017                                      AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM WITH
            1/4 MI VISIBILITY AND GUSTS UP TO 71 MPH. POLICE HAD NO
            REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE, HOWEVER THERE WERE MANY
            VEHICLES STUCK IN THE SNOW. A TRAVEL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
            TO TRY TO KEEP PEOPLE OFF THE ROADS. ROAD CREWS WORKED
            LATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE ROADS BEFORE THE
            MORNING. NO ROAD IMPACTS REPORTED MONDAY.

&&

RDUELL