Flash Flood Warning 123, NWS Las Vegas, NV

486 
WGUS75 KVEF 211250
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 AM MST MON NOV 21 2016

AZC015-211445-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0123.000000T0000Z-161121T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
550 AM MST MON NOV 21 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...

AT 546 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAIN
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 7 AM MST LEADING TO AN INCREASED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. MOHAVE COUNTY SHERIFF DID REPORT THAT MOST OF THE
WASHES IN GOLDEN VALLEY WERE FULL AND AT LEAST ONE SWIFT WATER
RESCUE AT THE INTERSECTION OF EGAR AND DIABASE ROADS. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KINGMAN...PACKSADDLE CAMPGROUND...GOLDEN VALLEY...CHLORIDE...WINDY
POINT CAMPGROUND...NEW KINGMAN-BUTLER AND DOLAN SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...FARMLAND...AND OTHER LOW LYING
SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 11402 3500 11414 3516 11443 3556 11451

$$

ASG

851 
WGUS75 KVEF 211436
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
736 AM MST MON NOV 21 2016

AZC015-211446-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0123.000000T0000Z-161121T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
736 AM MST MON NOV 21 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 745 AM MST...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3550 11402 3500 11414 3516 11443 3556 11451

$$

ASG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
255 AM PST Mon Nov 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm will move across the region through
today and tonight, bringing locally breezy conditions and
precipitation chances to much of the area. Dry conditions and near-
average temperatures are expected Tuesday through the upcoming
weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night.

Widespread light precipitation pushing east through western San
Bernardino and southern Inyo Counties this morning as an area of low
pressure moves onshore over southern California. We are also
starting to see increasing precipitation over far eastern Clark and
Mohave Counties as the moist southerly flow ahead of the low is
bringing increased lift to that area. The latest model runs have
been consistent in showing that most of the precipitation moving
through San Bernardino County will weaken and become more isolated
as it reaches Clark and southern Nye Counties. In fact, we have
started to see this in the latest radar images as the leading edge
is becoming less organized. The models have been consistent in
keeping the more widespread precipitation over Mohave County this
morning. Still think that we will see some isolated to scattered
rain showers across Clark and southern Nye Counties this morning,
but it looks like precip totals will only amount to a few hundredths
at best. Did go ahead and lower pops across those aforementioned
area while raising pops a smidge over Mohave County. The models are
also showing some decent instability over Mohave County this morning
so have mention of thunder in the grids. Instability is much weaker
this afternoon and it looks like the best chance to see
thunderstorms will be before noon. Temperatures today will end up
slightly below normal due to the increased cloud cover expected.

Precipitation will spread east during the afternoon with mainly
Lincoln and Mohave Counties seeing showers this afternoon. Drier
conditions are expected to move in from the west as a drier flow
moves into the area. Any remaining showers over the far eastern CWA
is expected to end by midnight leaving dry conditions areawide. Weak
high pressure will then over over the area Tuesday with light winds
and mild temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. Forecast difficulties brewing
in the long term as the pattern becomes more progressive. There is
model agreement that a storm system will pass through the Great
Basin on Wednesday, with any precip chances confined to the Sierra
and the northern fringes of our CWA. In its wake, strong north winds
down the Colorado River look like a good bet on Thursday, and Wind
Advisories may be needed as we get closer. By Friday, the next
trough should be nearing the Pacific Northwest, with surface
pressure gradients relaxing or even reversing, putting an end to the
strong north winds. Thereafter, a series of shortwave troughs slams
into the West Coast, and as often occurs with such a pattern, the
models disagree on which wave(s) to amplify and to what degree. No
confidence in reliably forecasting which shortwave trough will
amplify several days out, so painted the long term with a very broad
brush of gentle to breezy west to northwest winds, slight chances of
precip over the southern Great Basin and high clouds over the Mojave
Desert, with little change in temperatures. Presumably the picture
will become clearer as we get closer in time.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Isold to Sct showers will impact the
terminal between 12z-18z with light rain showers and cigs
potentially down to 5k feet at times. Any precipitation should exit
the area by 18z with improving conditions. South to southwest winds
10-15 kts expected to develop after 16z and continue through much of
the afternoon. Dry conditions and light winds expected by evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Isolated to sct showers over much of the area today
with the more widespread precipitation across Mohave County. Isold
tstorms will also be possible over Mohave Co before 20z. Cigs down
to 5k feet at times with some mountain obscurations possible. South
to southwest winds 10-20 kts. Improving conditions by late this
afternoon and evening.
&&

Short Term/Aviation:  Gorelow
Long Term:  Morgan

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