Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Tulsa, OK

716 
WWUS84 KTSA 150824
RFWTSA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
324 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER A
PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...

.GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AIR BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD 
FRONT WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNSET.

OKZ060>064-067-160000-
/O.EXA.KTSA.FW.W.0011.160315T1700Z-160316T0000Z/
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-WAGONER-
324 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...IN OKLAHOMA...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES... 
  DELAWARE...CREEK...AND WAGONER COUNTIES. 

* WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 
  MPH.

* HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF 
  WEATHER CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 
  HOURS...FAVORING RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES. THE 
  PRIMARY WEATHER FACTORS INCLUDE STRONGER WINDS...LOWER 
  HUMIDITIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. 

&&

$$

OKZ054>059-160000-
/O.CON.KTSA.FW.W.0011.160315T1700Z-160316T0000Z/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
324 AM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN OKLAHOMA...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA... 
  CRAIG...OTTAWA...AND PAWNEE COUNTIES. 

* WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 
  MPH.

* HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AROUND 80.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF 
  WEATHER CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 
  HOURS...FAVORING RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES. THE 
  PRIMARY WEATHER FACTORS INCLUDE STRONGER WINDS...LOWER 
  HUMIDITIES...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. 

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A very pleasant March day across the region...after some morning
dense fog. A low amplitude upper flow regime is currently in place
over the CONUS...with the next piece of energy over NV moving
quickly toward the Plains in the jet stream flow. The system will
force a Pacific cold front thru our area late tonight into early
Tuesday. Behind the front on Tuesday afternoon...deep mixing will
bring gusty winds to areas along and north of hwy 412...although
gusts don't appear to support any headlines at this time.
Downslope flow will negate most of the cooling with the
front...and thus highs will not be much lower than today. In
fact...the lower Ark river valley and SE OK may actually get
warmer than today. Another subtle shortwave will push a weak
boundary thru Wed into Thur.

Toward the end of the week...a temporary amplification of the
upper flow pattern is forecast. Ridging will nose up into the Gulf
of Alaska and western Canada...which will allow for downstream
troughing and some colder air to push south over the Plains. The
medium range models are still in some disagreement on how a
significant piece of energy will break from the parent upper low
near the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. The GFS is not as
amplified with the overall flow pattern...and is therefore farther
east with the lift/precip with the system. The ECMWF remains the
colder and wetter solution...with a deeper system farther west.
The Canadian is in between. Given the uncertainty will go middle
ground on pops during this time frame. The ECMWF suggests the
column would be cold enough for snow across the north Fri night
into Sat as well. The forecast will continue to be refined in the
coming days. The latter half of the weekend looks cool and dry,
with a warming trend going into next week as the pattern becomes
more zonal again.

Lacy

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm temps, gusty west winds and forecast min RH values in the
upper teens and low 20s behind the Pacific front Tuesday afternoon
will yield conditions conducive for aggressive fire behavior
mainly for the counties bordering Kansas and Pawnee county. A fire
weather watch is already in effect for this area. Given the higher
confidence in conditions verifying...will upgrade the watch to a
warning.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  77  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  84  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   54  79  40  73 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   48  74  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   49  78  35  67 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   54  79  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  77  40  71 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   52  75  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  77  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   52  82  44  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1255 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA... MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 69.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR
AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 69 WILL HAVE THE HIGHER FIRE POTENTIAL...AS THE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE OVER
THESE LOCATIONS. FIRE DANGERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE MID TEEN TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGERS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGERS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS COULD NEAR
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ALSO A RETURN FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.