Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

624 
WWUS84 KTSA 070116
RFWTSA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
716 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

OKZ054>062-064>067-070230-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160307T0100Z/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-
CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
716 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...RESULTING IN
RISING HUMIDITY LEVELS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT HOWEVER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
303 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Extreme fire weather conditions later today are the immediate
forecast concerns, with a transition to a focus on the well
advertised active weather pattern for next week. Red Flag
conditions are expected to be neared or met across a good chunk
of northeast Oklahoma, generally north and west of a line from
Okemah to Miami. Winds will become strong and gusty from the south
to southwest by late morning, as 45 to 50 kt winds estimated just
off the surface on current KINX and KTLX VAD wind profiles begin
to mix downward. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will be likely
across much of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Although dew
points are beginning to come up some early this morning as a
result of the increasing south winds, mixing should also lead to a
sharp drop in dew points, especially along and west of Highway 75,
during the afternoon, given the magnitude of the dry air aloft
evident on upstream 00Z soundings. Minimum relative humidities
this afternoon should be very near the 25 percent threshold for a
Red Flag Warning, likely more in the 25 to 30 percent range, but
the strength of the winds this afternoon should be more than
enough to overcome the marginal humidities for critical fire
behavior.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the region by Monday,
as the large upper trough begins to move onto the West Coast of
the country. Thunderstorm potential will increase by Monday
afternoon from south to north as a low level jet increases over
eastern Oklahoma, with the greater chances arriving Monday night
and into Tuesday. There is some potential for severe weather with
this activity, especially Monday night, but the strongest storms
should be associated with the dryline, which will remain west of
the forecast area. Beyond Tuesday, it is increasingly likely that
the axis of heaviest rain and greatest flooding potential will set
up along a surface front to the southeast of the forecast area,
although portions of far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
should still see substantial rainfall through Wednesday. At least
low shower and thunderstorm chances will persist into next
weekend, as the main upper low will be slow to move from the
southwestern United States through portions of Texas and into the
southeastern United States.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  60  70  60 /   0  10  20  60
FSM   73  55  71  57 /   0  10  20  80
MLC   73  61  68  61 /   0  10  40  80
BVO   76  59  69  59 /   0  10  20  60
FYV   69  54  67  57 /   0  10  20  80
BYV   68  53  68  56 /   0  10  20  80
MKO   74  58  69  59 /   0  10  30  80
MIO   75  59  70  59 /  10  10  20  60
F10   73  59  69  60 /   0  10  40  70
HHW   73  58  69  60 /  10  10  30  80

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for
     OKZ054>067-070-071.

AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061115-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS WILL SUPPORT WILDFIRE STARTS...
HOWEVER LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL HELP LIMIT THE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COMMON. WHILE OVERALL FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE REDUCED DURING
THIS TIME AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN HIGHER
HUMIDITY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT MORE SO LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS
CURRENTLY APPEAR MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY TUESDAY WITH DETAILS TO BE REFINED
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.