Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Topeka, KS

May 9, 2016Marshall County, Riley County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 9, 2016, 7:27 PM CDT for Marshall County, Riley County, Kansas. It was in force for 26 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2016, 7:27 PM CDT (00:27 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2016, 7:53 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Marshall County, KS, Riley County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 9, 7:38 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	6 N Randolph, KS	WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 MPH WITH THE HAIL.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 9, 2:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	10 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1656 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1273 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

741 
WUUS53 KTOP 100027
SVRTOP
KSC117-161-100115-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0097.160510T0027Z-160510T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
727 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 726 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
  RANDOLPH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARYSVILLE...BLUE RAPIDS AND WATERVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 9639 3954 9660 3953 9663 3951 9664
      3950 9666 3948 9667 3947 9668 3948 9668
      3946 9669 3946 9671 3945 9672 3944 9671
      3943 9672 3949 9690 3957 9687 3957 9681
      3972 9681 3994 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 204DEG 32KT 3953 9676 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JOHNSON

2 follow-up statements

858 
WWUS53 KTOP 100043
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
743 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC117-161-100115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-160510T0115Z/
MARSHALL-RILEY-
743 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN MARSHALL AND NORTH CENTRAL RILEY COUNTIES...

AT 742 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
BLUE RAPIDS...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARYSVILLE...BLUE RAPIDS AND WATERVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 9639 3954 9660 3953 9663 3951 9664
      3950 9666 3948 9667 3947 9668 3948 9668
      3946 9669 3946 9671 3951 9682 3957 9681
      3972 9681 3994 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 191DEG 31KT 3959 9670 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GDP

176 
WWUS53 KTOP 100053
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
753 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSC117-161-100103-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-160510T0115Z/
MARSHALL-RILEY-
753 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MARSHALL AND NORTH
CENTRAL RILEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3981 9639 3954 9660 3953 9663 3951 9664
      3950 9666 3948 9667 3947 9668 3948 9668
      3946 9669 3946 9671 3951 9682 3957 9681
      3972 9681 3994 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 204DEG 32KT 3968 9665 

$$

GDP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 9, 6:55 PM CDT, 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 6:55 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
655 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Focus on next several hours of convection then on brief break Tues.

Severe storms will develop over the next few hours and impact much
of the area with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG with shear increasing from
NW to SE across our area from 25kts to around 45kts.  Expect mixed
modes of storms with all hazards in play.  Tornado risk appears
marginal but as usual non-zero given SE sfc flow.  Flooding and
heavy rains in local areas could actually end up being larger issue
is storms repeatedly move across same areas.

Although precip should exit by midnight the sfc low never does track
NE but instead re-develops across eastern CO as the next upper wave
approaches so look for continued SE sfc winds along with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Tues but dry weather expected
at least for 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Upper trough moving across the Northern Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring a cold front into eastern Kansas with the
models differing slightly with the speed. Showers and thunderstorms
look to develop and move into north central Kansas late Tuesday
evening and may hold off until after midnight. The upper trough axis
will move through eastern Kansas Wednesday night and will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with elevated instability and
cooler temps aloft with the upper trough. Northwest flow is expected
in the wake of the upper trough and continues through the weekend.
There are a number of waves that will move southeast out of Canada
across the area bringing a chance of showers and a few storms to the
area beginning Friday and off and on through next Monday. Best
chances for storms will be Friday then again on Sunday and Monday
where shear and instability will be favorable. Highs mainly in the
70s through Friday. A cold front moving through Friday night will
usher in cooler air for the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

Storms continue to form and progress to the NNE. Possible that
timing adjustments may be off for TSRA, but shortly after 00Z at
KMHK certainly still appears reasonable. KTOP/KFOE may still see
storms around the 01Z time frame as movement may begin to pick up.
After around 04Z storms should clear the area to the east. Believe
that some early morning reduced VIS is likely considering light
winds and moist surface in play bringing MVFR conditions to all
sites. Increasing subsidence after 14Z should allow for clearing
skies and a complete VFR from there.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 11:54 AM CDT, 7 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101700-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 2
AND 4PM. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN 4PM AND 10PM TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4PM AND 10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 6:48 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 N GREEN               39.50N 97.00W
05/09/2016                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE AND STORM CHASER REPORTED SEEING A
            ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD FOR 5 MINUTES.
            THE ROTATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE.

&&

JP

Local storm report, May 9, 6:49 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             9 S GREENLEAF           39.60N 96.98W
05/09/2016  E2.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   PUBLIC

            RANGE FROM GOLFBALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

JP

Local storm report, May 9, 6:51 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             2 E BELLEVILLE          39.82N 97.59W
05/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BB

Local storm report, May 9, 6:53 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW WASHINGTON        39.78N 97.14W
05/09/2016  E60 MPH          WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN 50-60 MPH

&&

JP

Local storm report, May 9, 6:56 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
656 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             BELLEVILLE              39.82N 97.63W
05/09/2016  M1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

JP

Local storm report, May 9, 7:08 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
708 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             BELLEVILLE              39.82N 97.63W
05/09/2016  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

JP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley	29 min
May 9, 7:18 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Cloud, Republic	5 hr
May 9, 7:22 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Clay, Riley, Washington	5 hr
May 9, 8:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Shawnee	29 min
May 9, 8:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Anderson, Franklin	56 min
May 9, 8:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Nemaha	50 min
May 9, 9:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Nemaha	55 min
May 9, 9:15 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TOP	Washington	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.