Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Storms have begun to form within the tropical air mass in place
across the area. The instability is moderate and will support strong
updrafts, also soundings show a moist environment through most of
the vertical profile. This in turn may help to produce a wet
microburst at the surface. Although the deep layer shear is minimal
therefore updrafts will not last long. The storm outflows will then
support further development through the evening. Storm motion is
rather slow and several cells may train over the same locations, and
rainfall rates are efficient. All together could not rule out
localized gusty wind, heavy rainfall, and perhaps small hail. Since
most of this activity will be diurnally driven the coverage should
decrease this evening. Any remaining outflows may keep showers and
storms into the late evening as depicted by high res models. Models
then focus the showers and perhaps storms across north central KS
tonight. The warm air advection appears rather weak, but models are
hinting at a wave tracking over western KS into southern NE. This
activity could linger into tomorrow morning especially given the
potential wave. Some models are forecasting light wind and clear
skies across portions of northeast KS. With recent rainfall some
areas could develop ground fog around sunrise. A similar environment
is forecasted for tomorrow so expect storms developing late morning
and early afternoon. Models do show that wave will possibly deepen
as is tracks over NE, which may contribute to large scale lift
during the day. Moderate instability, weak shear, and high moisture
tomorrow will support storms capable of localized gusty wind and
heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The weather pattern remains fairly stagnant through Tuesday and
Wednesday with very weak flow and ample moisture aloft with weak
low level forcing in the region each day. The difference will be
that the mid-level vorticity maxima will be closer to the local
forecast area and may help support more than just the diurnally
driven daily convection during this period. Expect several of
these impulses along with occasional MCV structures to provide
this extra vertical motion, and also to enhance local moisture
content and moisture flux into smaller areas. Pwat values will be
typically in the 1.75-2" range, and all of these ingredients along
with the convective nature of the precipitation suggest that
mainly localized areas of heavy rainfall and flooding will be
possible. Could also see periods of training precipitation so can
not rule out a few even smaller areas of very heavy rain totals
through Wednesday night. Temperatures through this time frame will
see a slight cooling trend as there should be more cloud cover in
the area but still expect highs mainly in the 80s.

Thursday a few storms could linger in southwestern parts of the
forecast area, but then expect a dry period through Friday night
as dry high pressure builds in from the northeast. While the
airmass will be cooler and drier, there will also be more of the
August sunshine so highs are likely to maintain in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.

Southerly return flow builds back into the area for next weekend
with additional northern stream disturbances skirting the local
area and eventually forcing another decaying front into the
central Plains. This is cause for a return of thunderstorm chances
along with warmer temperatures and more humidity for much of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Ordinary TS are expected to continue weakening with the loss of
daylight. Therefore have removed the mention of VCTS as chances
appear to be diminishing. VFR conditions are forecast to persist
into Monday. Will have to deal with ISOLD to SCT convection in the
afternoon. However predictability remains to low to include in
the forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON MONDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT ROUNDS OF STORMS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
516 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             E EMPORIA AIRPORT       38.34N 96.20W
08/28/2016  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   OTHER FEDERAL

            A FEW QUARTER SIZE STONES FELL...ASOS AT THE AIRPORT HAD
            GUSTED UP TO 50MPH AT 452PM ALSO.

&&

BDRAKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ024-038-039-290015-
WABAUNSEE-JACKSON-SHAWNEE-
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...
NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

AT 643 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF SILVER LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSSVILLE...SILVER LAKE...MAPLE HILL...DELIA AND WILLARD.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 344 AND 355.

LAT...LON 3900 9582 3909 9610 3916 9606 3914 9606
      3914 9604 3920 9604 3931 9597 3920 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 207DEG 9KT 3917 9582

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