Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Great Falls, MT

153 
WWUS85 KTFX 022049
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

MTZ115-117-118-030000-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160903T0000Z/
CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-
HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-
249 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS...

* IMPACTS: LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE 
  ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR AND NEW FIRE STARTS. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FIRE ZONES...115...117.
  IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA FIRE ZONE....118.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  IN CENTRAL MONTANA...CASCADE...FERGUS...JUDITH BASIN
                       LEWIS AND CLARK...MEAGHER.
  IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...CHOUTEAU.
  IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...GOLDEN VALLEY...PARK...SWEET GRASS
                             WHEATLAND.
  IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...BROADWATER...GALLATIN...JEFFERSON.

* WIND: WEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  40 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 6 PM.

* HUMIDITY: AS LOW AS 23 PERCENT...HOWEVER HUMIDITIES WILL BE
  INCREASING IN MOST AREAS AFTER 4 PM AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
  REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

978 
WWUS85 KTFX 022346
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

MTZ115-117-118-030100-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160903T0000Z/
CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-
HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL
FOREST-
546 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 115...117 AND
118...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN RISING AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED.
THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1115 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Convective activity lingers mainly across the northeast zones but
most lightning is now east of the zones. A cold front will cross
the Rockies around midnight and winds will along the slopes will
strengthen towards morning. Current forecast on track. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0515Z.

VFR conditions will generally continue through at least Friday
evening. A disturbance in the southwest flow aloft will continue to
bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the area along and east
of a KHVR to KBTM line through around 10Z. The main threat will be
gusty winds. Mid level west-southwest winds will increase from the
west between 12Z and 18Z, and a passing Pacific cold front will help
mix them down to the surface between 16Z and 20Z. Winds may gust in
excess of 40 kt at times along the Rocky Mountain Front, but 30 to
40 kt gusts are more likely elsewhere. A few showers and
thunderstorms with stronger wind gusts will likely develop ahead of
the front from Southwest Montana (including KBZN, but east of KHLN)
into Central Montana (including KLWT) between 18Z and 22Z. Cooler
air following the front will help stabilize the atmosphere in these
areas after 22Z, causing decreasing mainly shower activity. Winds
will decrease after 01Z from the west as the front exits the area.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorms will move from south to north through the
region this evening. A few storms will produce gusty winds...with
most storms producing less than 0.05 inches of rainfall.

On Friday...a cool front will move through the region. Winds will
be much stronger across the region...especially over North
Central MT. In Southwest MT...humidities continue to be forecasted
in the 20 percent range...thus I will keep the fire weather watch
going.

Looking ahead...a good chance for a widespread rainfall over one
half inch and much cooler temperatures is expected on Sunday.
Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 538 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2016/
Tonight through Saturday...A southwesterly flow aloft will prevail
over the region tonight...as an upper level disturbance moves
northeastward through the region. Scattered thunderstorms will
continue as the disturbance moves northeast through the area. The
main threat from the storms tonight will be lightning and wind
gusts near 50 mph. However...a stronger storm could produce an
isolated stronger wind gust or some hail. On Friday...a cool front
will move through the region...mainly during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday...but still
very comfortable in many areas. However...winds will be on the
increase...especially during the afternoon hours over North
Central MT. There will be another chance for isolated storms on
Friday...mainly over the Rocky Mountain Front and in the mountains
of Southwest MT...but the coverage of storms on Friday should be
much less than today. For Saturday...cooler air will continue to
spill into the region...as wind speeds diminish a bit. Most areas
will remain dry on Saturday...but there is a chance for a late day
shower...mainly south of a line from Dillon to Bozeman. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Cool and wet conditions
Sunday through early Monday highlight the extended forecast period.
The period starts out rather quiet on Saturday night, although a few
showers may persist along the baroclinic zone associated with a
strong jet entrance region aloft.  Model solutions now consistently
present a longwave trough digging through the Pacific Northwest
early Sunday, with the trough axis located along the western Idaho
state line early Sunday afternoon. A surge of moisture originating
over the Southern Great Plains is drawn northward and wraps into
this system. Most model solutions depict the 700 mb trough closing
off somewhere over north-central MT Sunday night, thereby producing
east-northeast upslope flow. A cool, widespread steady rainfall
could produce around 0.5 to 1 inch total rain accumulation Sunday
through early Monday. The forecast snow level remains around 7000
feet, with some accumulation possible by Monday morning on the
higher mountain peaks. Those out in the central MT mountains this
weekend should expect wet and cold conditions, as well as restricted
visibility and possible disorientation within a persistent low cloud
layer. Forecast high temperatures have trended a few degrees cooler,
now in the mid-50s for Monday afternoon. Conditions improve Tuesday
and Wednesday, with scattered showers possible and temperatures
moving back into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Gusty west winds are
indicated for Wednesday afternoon as a lee side trough develops.
Another cool and moist longwave trough appears in the forecast for
next Thursday, but will have to watch how this system evolves in
subsequent model runs. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  75  45  72 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  51  67  42  68 /  20  50  10  10
HLN  58  75  48  73 /  20  10  10  10
BZN  54  80  45  71 /  20  30  10  10
WEY  48  73  40  65 /  20  10  10  10
DLN  55  78  44  68 /  20  10  10  10
HVR  58  80  47  75 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  60  77  48  70 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight MDT Friday night
for MTZ123.

Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for MTZ118.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for MTZ111.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls