Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Tallahassee, FL

667 
WGUS72 KTAE 082246
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
546 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

ALC031-082254-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160808T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COFFEE AL-
546 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COFFEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT...BUT STANDING WATER COULD STILL BE
PRESENT ON ROADS THIS EVENING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING
ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3143 8608 3147 8600 3150 8592 3120 8589
      3119 8611 3118 8612 3119 8612 3119 8619
      3142 8620

$$

ADL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
358 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon, similar to yesterday afternoon. These storms contain very
heavy rainfall rates, but so far they have been fairly brief over
any one area. The latest ensemble of CAM guidance shows convection
redeveloping offshore late tonight and moving inland towards the big
bend region once again, so additional flooding is possible in areas
that have already seen heavy rain. The flood watch was also expanded
westward some to account for the gradual shifting of the heavier
rain area westward with time.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The area of low pressure will continue to slowly move west
through the period. Similar to today with high PWATs expect
storms to be efficient rain makers. Tuesday the highest rain
totals will be in the Big Bend where they have already seen
widespread heavy rain today. Starting Wednesday the heaviest rain
will shift to the west, with highest totals in the Panhandle.
Thoughts on QPF are similar to the previous forecast. Through
Tuesday night an additional 4 to 6 inches are possible in the Big
Bend with up to 4 inches elsewhere. These are average amounts and
rainfall totals could be higher locally. Extensive cloud cover
will keep highs in the mid 80s and lows will be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Models continue to differ on the eventually track of the low. The
EURO has the low moving north over Mississippi Friday and the GFS
shows the low a little weaker and takes it further west. Kept
likely PoPs for Friday and have 40-50% for Saturday to account for
moisture on the backside of the low. Rain totals Thursday through
Saturday will be highest in the Panhandle. Through Saturday 7 to 9
inches are possible along the coast, with more than 9 inches
possible along the immediate coast in Walton and Bay counties.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the region this afternoon, diminishing after sunset,
especially for DHN and ABY. Elsewhere, showers could persist on
and off for much of the night. Ceilings will be reduced as well to
MVFR at times, except IFR to LIFR possible at VLD. Low ceilings
are expected to persist into Tuesday as well.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak low will continue to slowly move west through the week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely with heavy rainfall. Winds will
increase to 20 knots tonight and a small craft advisory will be in
effect though Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A prolonged wet period is underway across the region as an upper low
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to generate showers
and thunderstorms across portions of northwest Florida. The flood
watch has been expanded westward and extended through Wednesday with
convection expected to develop westward and northward starting late
tonight. Additional expansions of the watch further west are
possible with future forecasts. The main river to watch over the
next 24 hours for flooding is the Steinhatchee along the
Taylor/Dixie county border.

This system is expected to slowly move westward through the middle
of the week, yielding periods of heavy rainfall across the region,
particularly nearer to the coast. Current additional forecast
rainfall accumulations along the coast generally range from 8 to 11
inches into Saturday. Amounts will generally be less further inland.
Flash flooding concerns remain highest in the urban areas northwest
Florida as this system moves westward.

For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts,
please visit http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  85  76  86  75 /  70  80  70  70  50
Panama City   79  85  78  84  78 /  60  70  80  80  60
Dothan        75  86  74  84  73 /  30  70  50  70  50
Albany        75  86  74  86  74 /  40  70  50  70  40
Valdosta      74  85  73  86  74 /  50  80  60  60  50
Cross City    75  83  74  88  75 /  80  80  50  50  50
Apalachicola  79  85  78  86  78 /  80  80  70  60  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
246 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLOOD            1 E PERRY               30.12N 83.56W
08/08/2016                   TAYLOR             FL   PUBLIC

            VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING PINE CREST STREET IN PERRY
            FLOODED WITH STANDING WATER WITH BARRICADES IN PLACE

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HATCH BEND              29.85N 82.92W
08/08/2016  M14.00 INCH      LAFAYETTE          FL   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF 14 INCHES OF RAIN IN HATCH BEND IN
            SOUTHEAST LAFAYETTE COUNTY SINCE SUNDAY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            3 NNE CLARA             29.83N 83.31W
08/08/2016                   LAFAYETTE          FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTHEAST YORKSHIRE ROAD AND AND SOUTHEAST WOLF ROAD ARE
            BOTH UNDERWATER AND CLOSED

&&

DVD