Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 113
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2016, 6:31 AM EST for 25 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2016, 6:31 AM EST (11:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 16, 2016, 8:30 AM EST
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 25 counties
Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Craven County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Vance County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 45 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -19 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 838 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 163 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 212 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
501
ACUS11 KWNS 161131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161131
NCZ000-VAZ000-161330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND ERN NC / SERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161131Z - 161330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH E-CNTRL NC AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A LOCALIZED
WIND-DAMAGE RISK MAY MATERIALIZE BUT MAY BE CONFINED TO PATHS OF ANY
MESOVORTICES THAT DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE QLCS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL
NC AND SRN NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION WHICH SHOULD AID
IN LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND CONVECTIVE LINE MAINTENANCE DESPITE THE LACK
OF DETECTED LIGHTNING FLASHES. HOWEVER...THE PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY
--PROBABLY 100-200 J PER KG MUCAPE AT BEST-- WITHIN A SATURATED
COLUMN WILL TEND TO MITIGATE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE
STRENGTH OF FLOW AND WELL-ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF THE QLCS MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1 OR 2 MESOVORTICES. AS A RESULT OF THE
MEAGER BUOYANCY...ANY LOW-PROBABILITY WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY BE
CONFINED TO BE NEAR MESOVORTEX PATHS BEFORE THE QLCS MOVES THROUGH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.
..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34127851 35497836 36547845 36667728 35037608 33847807
34127851SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 8:44 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Dare and 7 more | 61 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.