Tornado Warning 6, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
352 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cold front is moving slowly south across western north TX this
afternoon, currently in the vicinity of Haskell and Throckmorton
Counties. South of this front, a dryline has mixed east across most
of the CWA, leaving very dry air in place across West Central TX.
The exception is areas north of Abilene, where dewpoints remain in
the 50s. We've seen a few storms develop southwest of Wichita Falls
this afternoon and the cu field remains agitated over the South
Plains. It's certainly not out of the question that we could see an
isolated thunderstorm or two develop across the northern Big Country
this afternoon/evening (north of I-20). Given adequate MLCAPEs
exceeding 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of 40 kts, any
storm that develops could produce large hail and damaging winds.
That said, coverage should be limited at best.

The cold front will move south this evening, approaching I-20 by 7
PM and San Angelo around 9 PM. Winds will shift from the north at
around 15 mph, but may be gusty for a few hours immediately behind
the front given the strong isallobaric field. Winds will settle
between 10-15 after midnight from a general north-northeast
direction. Dewpoints are progged to increase behind this front and
low clouds are expected to develop, overspreading the area during
the late evening and early morning hours. This will limit how cool
temperatures get tonight, with forecast lows ranging from the mid
40s to lower 50s. No precipitation is anticipated during the
overnight hours.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue on Tuesday, with winds from the
northeast at 10-15 mph. Moisture will slowly increase as isentropic
ascent increases in the lower troposphere. Mid-level lapse rates
remain steep enough to warrant the mention of thunder and the hi-res
CAMS continue to show scattered convection developing area wide
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler
tomorrow, ranging from the upper 60s in the Big Country to the lower
70s in the Concho Valley and northwest Hill Country.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Will likely have showers and a few thunderstorms across west
central Texas Tuesday night, as the upper low moves across
the southern part of the Texas Panhandle and upper trough
pushes east across our area. Rain chances will drop off by
Wednesday across our area, and expect a decrease in cloud
cover with the advection of drier air from the west.

The low-level moisture will not be far removed from our
area, and will make a return by early Thursday morning
(with attendant low cloudiness) as return flow develops.
South-southeast low-level flow will increase Thursday and
especially Friday, as a large upper low drops south across
the Great Basin and into Arizona. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 75-80 degree range Thursday and Friday.

The potent upper low will bring increased rain chances and
the possibility of strong to severe storms to our area next
weekend. The GFS has the upper low meandering over the Four
Corners region next weekend, while the ECMWF has the upper
low meandering over New Mexico and southern Colorado. The
lack of eastward progression with the low will be due to a
blocking pattern with the upper level pattern over the
eastern U.S. With this scenario, several rounds of convection
would be possible, along with a potential for severe weather
and locally heavy rainfall. Although there is uncertainty with
the details of the forecast track of the upper low and with
specific parameters, confidence is increasing with the overall
pattern setup. Collaborative grids have increased rain chances
next weekend, with a lingering chance into Monday of next week.

19

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 48  67  51  72 /  10  20  60  20
San Angelo 	 51  71  53  75 /   5  30  60  20
Junction 	 54  73  55  74 /   5  30  60  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-121100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
259 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
BUT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
526 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

TXZ098-099-112315-
THROCKMORTON TX-HASKELL TX-
526 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HASKELL AND
NORTHWESTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 525 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEINERT...OR
NEAR MUNDAY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MILLERS CREEK RESERVOIR AROUND 550 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3331 9971 3339 9970 3340 9918 3321 9919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 274DEG 29KT 3337 9965

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             2 NW THROCKMORTON       33.20N  99.20W
04/11/2016  E1.00 INCH       THROCKMORTON       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600042

HUBER