Alert archive / Virginia / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

February 3, 2016Pittsylvania County, City of Danville, Virginia; Caswell County, North Carolina

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this river flood warning at Feb 3, 2016, 9:55 PM EST for Pittsylvania County, City of Danville, Virginia; Caswell County, North Carolina. It took effect at Feb 4, 2016, 4:36 AM EST. It was in force for 27 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 3, 2016, 9:55 PM EST (02:55 UTC)
In effect from: Feb 4, 2016, 4:36 AM EST
Expired: Feb 5, 2016, 7:25 AM EST
In force: 27 hr
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Caswell County, NC, City of Danville, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Dan River at STP near Danville (DVLV2). The gauge peaked at 18.00 ft at Feb 4, 2016, 3:00 PM EST.

Action stage: 18 ft
Minor stage: 21 ft
Moderate stage: 26 ft
Major stage: 32 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02075045, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

161 
WGUS41 KRNK 040255
FLWRNK
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
955 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...The National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in North Carolina...
Virginia...

  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties
  
  Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Listen to noaa weather radio or your favorite media outlet for later 
statements or warnings.

&&

NCC033-VAC143-590-041455-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0003.160204T0936Z-160205T1225Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T0936Z.160204T1800Z.160205T0025Z.NO/
955 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from late tonight until Friday morning.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was...14.6 feet...and rising slowly.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood Stage is 17.0 feet. 
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-041455-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160204T2024Z-160206T1030Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160204T2024Z.160205T1200Z.160205T2230Z.NO/
955 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Dan River Near Paces.
* from Thursday afternoon until late Friday night.
* at 8 PM EST Wednesday the stage was...14.4 feet...and rising slowly.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood Stage is 20.0 feet. 
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

RAB

5 follow-up statements

290 
WGUS81 KRNK 040313
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia and North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
  
  Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County 

  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties
  
  Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County 

Heavy rainfall on top of saturated ground from recent snow melt has resulted
in minor flooding along several points of the river system.  Minor flooding
is expected along the lower end of the Dan and Roanoke River basins through
Thursday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued around 5 am EST Thursday.

&&

VAC037-083-041113-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.160204T1651Z-160207T0138Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1651Z.160205T1200Z.160206T1338Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

The Flood Warning continues for

  the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* from late Thursday morning until Saturday evening.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage late Thursday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 23.4 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank 
  and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-041113-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0003.160204T0936Z-160205T1225Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T0936Z.160204T1800Z.160205T0025Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

the Flood Warning continues for

  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from early Thursday morning until Friday morning.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 14.6 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage early Thursday and continue 
  to rise to near 18.4 feet early Thursday afternoon. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage late Thursday evening.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-041113-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160204T2024Z-160206T1030Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160204T2024Z.160205T1200Z.160205T2230Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Paces.
* from Thursday afternoon until late Friday night.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 15.4 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage Thursday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 21.0 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-041113-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.160204T0640Z-160207T1057Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0640Z.160205T1800Z.160206T2257Z.NO/
1013 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River At South Boston.
* from early Thursday morning until late Saturday night.
* at 9 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 17.2 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage around 12 am EST Thursday then
  continue to rise to near 24.1 feet by early Friday afternoon. The 
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

RAB

144 
WGUS81 KRNK 040950
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...Virginia..
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED WEDNESDAY...BRINGING 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES 
 TO THE HEADWATERS OF THE ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. SATURATED GROUND
 FROM RECENT SNOWMELT LED TO RAPID RUNOFF. THIS IN TURN HAS LED TO RISING
 RIVER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM OF WENTWORTH ON THE DAN RIVER AND BROOKNEAL ON
 THE ROANOKE RIVER. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued BY NOON TODAY.

&&

VAC037-083-041750-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.160204T1420Z-160207T0200Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1420Z.160205T1200Z.160206T1400Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* from late this morning until Saturday evening
* at 03AM Thursday the stage was 19.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage late this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 23.8 feet by FRIDAY morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late Saturday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank 
  and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-041750-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1225Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T1018Z.160204T1800Z.160205T0025Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from early this morning until Friday morning
* at 04AM Thursday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage early this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 18.4 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by this evening.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-041750-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160204T2024Z-160206T1030Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160204T2024Z.160205T1200Z.160205T2230Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Paces.
* from late this afternoon until late Friday night
* at 03AM Thursday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 21.0 feet by FRIDAY morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by FRIDAY afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-041750-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160207T1057Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160205T1800Z.160206T2257Z.NO/
450 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River At South Boston.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 04AM Thursday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.1 feet by FRIDAY 
  afternoon. the river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

739
WGUS81 KRNK 041513
FLSRNK

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Virginia...North Carolina...

Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and
Pittsylvania Counties
Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County

Heavy rain occurred Wednesday...bringing one to two inches of rainfall to the headwaters of the Roanoke and Dan River basins. Saturated ground from recent snow melt...along with this rainfall led to rapid runoff. This resulted in rising river levels downstream of Wentworth of the Dan River and downstream of Brookneal on the Roanoke River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes
ahps'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued before 10PM.

VAC037-083-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1800Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0600Z.160206T0600Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 21.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.9 feet just after midnight
tonight. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday
morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding occurs in fields on the
left bank and in the woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
3680 7863 3680 7870

NCC033-VAC143-590-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1100Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T1115Z.160204T1800Z.160204T2300Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River near Danville.
* until Friday morning.
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 18.0 feet by this afternoon.
The river will fall below flood stage this evening.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
3648 7923 3650 7949

VAC083-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160205T0224Z-160206T0618Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160205T0224Z.160205T1200Z.160205T1818Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River near Paces.
* from tonight until late Friday night
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 18.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise
to near 20.6 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below
flood stage by early tomorrow afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture and agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
3656 7911

VAC083-042313-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160207T0900Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T2100Z.NO/
1013 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Saturday night.
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 21.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by tomorrow
evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879

659 
WGUS81 KRNK 042306
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina and Virginia...
 
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville...and 
  Pittsylvania Counties
  
  Dan River Near Paces affecting Halifax County
  
  Dan River At South Boston affecting Halifax County

  Roanoke River At Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
  
 ...Heavy rainfall Wednesday combined with saturated ground from recent
 snow melt produced excessive runoff into area creeks...streams...and rivers.
 Some points along the lower portion of the Dan and Roanoke river basin
 will remain in minor flood for the next few days...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued around 10 pm EST.

&&

VAC037-083-050706-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160206T1800Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.160204T1306Z.160205T0600Z.160206T0600Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River At Randolph.
* until Saturday afternoon. 
* at 5 PM THursday the stage was 22.8 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.9 feet by midnight... 
  then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* At 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on left bank 
  and woods on right bank.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Nov 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-050706-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1142Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T1115Z.160204T2031Z.160204T2342Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* until Friday morning. 
* at 5 PM EST Thursday the stage was 17.7 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river is expected to continue to fall to below flood stage by
  midnight tonight.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Nov 11 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-050706-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0004.160205T0224Z-160206T0618Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.160205T0224Z.160205T1200Z.160205T1818Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Paces.
* from tonight until late Friday night
* at 5 PM EST Thursday the stage was 19.7 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage this evening and continue to rise 
  to near 20.6 feet by tomorrow morning. The river is expected tofall
  below flood stage early Thursday afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 feet on Oct 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-050706-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160207T0900Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.160204T0412Z.160206T0000Z.160206T2100Z.NO/
606 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River At South Boston.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 5 PM EST Thursday the stage was 22.3 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by Friday 
  evening...then is forecast to fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.7 feet on Oct 2 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

RAB

524 
WGUS81 KRNK 050312
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1012 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in North Carolina...Virginia...
 
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties
 

 ...insert basis section here!!!...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued *** fill me in ***

&&

NCC033-VAC143-590-050342-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1142Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.160204T1115Z.160204T2031Z.160205T0105Z.NO/
1012 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* until Friday morning. 
* at 09PM Thursday the stage was 16.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 16.1 feet on Mar 26 2012.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 3, 8:57 PM EST, 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 3, 8:57 PM EST, 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
857 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 857 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE WEST. ADJUSTED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...TREND BACK THE WESTERN
EDGE OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL WSR-88D CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. LEANED
THE POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR. THE HIRESWARW-EAST AND RAP WERE JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER ON THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. OVERALL...HIGHRES MODELS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD
AIR WAS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING EAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHAPED POPS FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HRRR. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG BECAUSE
CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
TOWARDS MODEL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES READINGS RISING A FEW DEGREES
THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FROPA THEN FALLING TONIGHT. THE REAL COLD AIR
LAGS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO HAVE A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES IN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK. MORE CHANGES
LATER TONIGHT...

AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONVEYOR BELT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LAGS
AND IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SWAP THE
MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ANY DRYING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST. IN THE INTERIM...MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN AREAS OF FOG AS
ANY CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. RUNOFF FROM TODAYS RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH SMALL STREAMS WILL BE RECEDING...THE LARGER
RIVERS WILL ACTUALLY RISE. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER ROANOKE AND LOWER DAN RIVERS. OTHERS ARE BEING WATCHED
CLOSELY..SEE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...
READINGS ACTUALLY RISING A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
FROPA. COLD AIR LAGS...SO NO PTYPE ISSUES TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THATS ABOUT
IT. ELSEWHERE...ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WOULD BE LIQUID...WITH MAIN
THREAT FOR ANY LINGERING RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 29.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS WILL BE FOUND AT THE FAR WESTERN AND
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST OFF TO OUR EAST AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES...COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GENERATING SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN US AND DEVELOP A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE LATE ON SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY A MUCH DEEPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US AND SET UP A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER PATTERN...WHILE A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION SO WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH TIME.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY HAVE SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS.
THUS...HAVE ENDED RESIDUAL SHRA FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
TAF AREA.

EXPECT A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINISHES ITS PASSAGE TO THE EAST...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO KEPT LYH/DAN ENTERING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE
WEST...WERE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND...AND MIXING IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. I EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AT KBLF...KROA...AND KBCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY

FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE WANE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AFTER A
BUSY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
BY EARLY EVENING. WE ARE THEN LEFT WITH THE AFTERMATH AS SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE QUICKLY BUT NUMEROUS ROADS WILL
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER AND PONDING. MEANWHILE RUNOFF
INTO LARGER STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MANY RIVERS RISING VERY RAPIDLY. RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST ONLY ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WITH MINOR
CATEGORY FLOODING EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ON THESE RIVERS.
SEE FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS /WBCFLWRNK/ FOR DETAILS ON THIS
FLOODING. ESSENTIALLY EVERY OTHER MAJOR RIVER...INCLUDING THE
YADKIN...JAMES...GREENBRIER AND UPPER NEW (ABOVE RADFORD) ARE
FORECAST TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ONLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ACTION STAGE...REMAINING SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
THESE RIVERS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST AS MINOR FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 3, 9:13 PM EST, 42 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
913 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-041100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
913 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND RECENT SNOW MELT HAS
RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS. SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE RIVER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR OR IN
MINOR FLOOD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER END OF THE ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RAB

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 3, 4:08 PM EST, 5 hours 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE ROANOKE           37.29N 79.95W
02/03/2016                   CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSED THE LICK RUN CREEK TO FLOOD THE
            GREENWAY AT BROWN-ROBERTSON PARK

&&

CRAFT

Local storm report, Feb 3, 5:04 PM EST, 4 hours 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLOOD            5 WNW PILOT MOUNTAIN    36.41N 80.56W
02/03/2016                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS CAUSED THE ARRARAT RIVER TO
            OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, COVERING A PORTION OF RADAR ROAD IN
            SURRY COUNTY, NC.

&&

JMORROW

Local storm report, Feb 3, 5:05 PM EST, 4 hours 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
505 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLOOD            5 WNW PILOT MOUNTAIN    36.41N 80.56W
02/03/2016                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS CAUSED THE ARARAT RIVER TO
            OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, COVERING A PORTION OF RADAR ROAD IN
            SURRY COUNTY, NC.

&&

JMORROW

Local storm report, Feb 3, 8:37 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
837 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     FLOOD            4 NE BOONVILLE          36.27N 80.65W
02/03/2016                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED THE YADKIN RIVER TO BREIFLY
            ESCAPE ITS BANKS...TEMPORARILY CLOSING ROCKFORD ROAD NEAR
            THE TRAIN TRACK CROSSING.

&&

JMORROW

Special weather statement, Feb 3, 9:36 PM EST, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ044-507-
040545-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
DANBURY...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...
BEDFORD...AMHERST...MARTINSVILLE...UNION...LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON
936 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...AREAS OF FOG WILL HINDER TRAVEL TONIGHT...

POCKETS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 77 AND INTERSTATE 81. THE VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED BELOW A MILE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF DRIVING...REMEMBER TO
SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR LOW- BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 3, 9:55 PM EST	River Flood Warning	RNK	Halifax	56 hr
Feb 4, 5:35 PM EST	Wind Advisory	RNK	Grayson	16 hr
Feb 3, 8:23 PM EST	Areal Flood Warning	RNK	Surry, Yadkin	3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2016 River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2016 Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.