Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

075 
WHUS71 KPHI 170756
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

ANZ430-431-450>455-172100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0034.160317T1600Z-160318T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
356 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT...PRIMARILY
  FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AND ESPECIALLY NEAR
  ANY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET WITH 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC
  WATERS. 

* OUTLOOK...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
  EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF A STRONG
  NOR'EASTER GALE LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

709 
WHUS71 KPHI 171935
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

ANZ430-431-450>455-172045-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-160318T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
335 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, BUT ONLY IN SHOWERS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH
ON FRIDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT ON
SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW TO AREAS
FARTHER INLAND. THE LOW WILL DEPART ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LIGHT FOG THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD MOSTLY BE ALL GONE BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE NOON HOUR. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES, A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE TODAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH. THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS AND STALLS THE WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WANES AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER, SO WE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD TODAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MOSTLY FROM THE SE OR S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WE WILL STILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON THU, SO MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD FOR MID MARCH, MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH MAINLY CHANNELED VORT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE
WILL ALSO BE COLD AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MARCH SUN HEATING.
SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLD T-STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...SIMILAR TO TODAY.

ON FRIDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. A LITTLE INSTABILITY IS
FCST AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ITS PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL. SAT SHOULD SEE MAINLY FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH
CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AT THE SFC BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA.

ON SUNDAY THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID WEST OPENS UP INTO A SHRTWV TROF AND ROTATES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC...TRIGGERING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE NC/SC COAST.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE LOW OUT TO SEA. WE
FOLLOWED THE BLEND OF MODELS THAT MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS OVER THE
FCST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHO 850 HPA TEMPS ARE
BELOW FRZG THE SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY SEEM TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN MOST
AREAS. PRECIP COULD CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SFC TEMPS COOL.

THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES AWAY TO THE NE ON MONDAY
WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LVL COLD ADVCTN IN ITS WAKE. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE BUT MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT FOG REMAINS ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT THE
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE NOON HOUR.

ONCE THE FOG MIXES OUT, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE DAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND WILL
BRING SOME BKN-OVC SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN 4,000-6,000 FEET. A LINE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND COULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENIGN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT WE THINK THE CHANCE IS SMALL AND WILL
NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE SE/E THROUGH THE
MORNING, THEN BECOME SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT, THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND THE (VFR) LOW CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND FRI....MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SOME AFTN SHRA OR EVEN ISOLD
TSRA ARE PSBL WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON FRI MAY TRIGGER MORE SHRA AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR DECREASING TO MVFR AND IFR PSBL IN RA MOST AREAS, AND
SOME SN N AND W. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS ON SUN
DUE TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRES MOVING UP FROM THE S.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH, BUT MAY NOT ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, SUB-
SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS THIS
MORNING ARE MOSTLY 3-4 FT SOUTH AND 4-5 FT NORTH. THE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY 1-2 FT THRU THE DAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WIND DIRECTIONS
TODAY, MOSTLY SE/E THEN SOUTH THIS EVENING AND THEN VEERING TO
WRLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU AND THU NIGHT...CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MARGINAL SCA ARE PSBL... WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A CDFNT DURG THE AFTN. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ATTM.

SAT THRU SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/ROBERTSON/O'HARA
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON/O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
527 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-170930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
527 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. A COASTAL STORM COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-170930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
527 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COASTAL STORM COULD BRING ROUGH SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.