Alert archive / Delaware / Areal Flood Warnings in 2016

Areal Flood Warning 20, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

September 29, 2016Sussex County, Delaware

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood warning at Sep 29, 2016, 2:32 PM EDT for Sussex County, Delaware. It was in force for 15 hr. 43 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Sep 29, 2016, 2:32 PM EDT (18:32 UTC)
Expired
Sep 30, 2016, 5:30 AM EDT
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Sussex County, DE

The radar

The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Sep 29, 2:55 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.48Ellendale, DE
Sep 29, 2:55 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.77Georgetown, DE
Sep 29, 2:55 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.82Gumboro, DE
Sep 29, 2:55 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.48Stockley, DE
Sep 29, 2:55 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 9.41Harbeson, DE
Sep 29, 3:00 PM EDTFLOODHarbeson, DEHARBESON ROAD...ROUTE 5...IS CLOSED IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS. SHOULDERS WASHED OUT BETWEEN ROADS 285 AND 302.
Sep 29, 3:01 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.18Redden, DE
Sep 29, 3:05 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.54Stockley, DE
Sep 29, 3:05 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 9.46Harbeson, DE
Sep 29, 3:33 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.39Redden, DE
Sep 29, 3:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.41Lewes, DE
Sep 29, 3:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.51Jones Crossroads, DE
Sep 29, 3:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.67Ellendale, DE
Sep 29, 3:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.91Gumboro, DE
Sep 29, 3:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.95Georgetown, DE
Sep 29, 3:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.71Stockley, DE
Sep 29, 3:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 9.62Harbeson, DE
Sep 29, 3:47 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 9.69Harbeson, DE
Sep 29, 5:10 PM EDTFLOODWood Branch, DEROAD FLOODED
Sep 29, 6:03 PM EDTFLOODDagsboro, DEROUTE 113 FLOODED NEAR RTE 26.
Sep 29, 6:32 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 11.3Harbeson, DE
Sep 29, 6:34 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 8.38Stockley, DE
Sep 29, 6:36 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.25Sussex County Airport, DE
Sep 29, 6:41 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.04Selbyville, DE
Sep 29, 6:42 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.7Lewes, DE
Sep 29, 6:43 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.37Delmar, DE
Sep 29, 6:45 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.16Bridgeville, DE
Sep 29, 6:45 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.24Greenwood, DE
Sep 29, 6:47 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.54Bethany Beach, DE
Sep 29, 6:49 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.71Ellendale, DE
Sep 29, 8:08 PM EDTFLOODHarbeson, DEHUDSON ROAD FLOODED
Sep 29, 10:00 PM EDTFLOODBethany Beach, DEROUTE 1 CLOSED BETWEEN BETHANY BEACH AND DEWEY BEACH DUE TO WATER ON THE ROADWAY
Sep 29, 10:48 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5Greenwood, DE
Sep 29, 10:50 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 12.2Harbeson, DE
Sep 29, 10:51 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.28Seaford, DE
Sep 29, 10:51 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.44Rehoboth Beach, DE
Sep 29, 10:51 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.4Ellendale, DE
Sep 29, 10:52 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.01Bethany Beach, DE
Sep 29, 10:52 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.27Lewes, DE
Sep 29, 10:52 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 9.39Stockley, DE
Sep 29, 10:53 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.7Laurel, DE
Sep 29, 10:53 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.73Delmar, DE
Sep 30, 4:48 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 8.69Sussex County Airport, DEFROM SEPTEMBER 27 THROUGH 430 AM SEPTEMBER 30

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-09-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 169 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-09-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -46 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
169 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
911 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

019 
WGUS41 KPHI 291832
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
232 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

DEC005-300030-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.W.0020.160929T1832Z-160930T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX DE-
232 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT THURSDAY

* AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
  MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
  THIS RAINFALL IS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
  RAINFALL LAST NIGHT SO IT WILL CAUSE FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  GEORGETOWN...MILFORD...SEAFORD...MILLSBORO...LAUREL...LEWES...
  MILTON...SELBYVILLE...BRIDGEVILLE...DELMAR...DAGSBORO...
  MILLVILLE...ELLENDALE...HENLOPEN ACRES...SYCAMORE...
  CAPE HENLOPEN STATE PARK...GUMBORO...LONG NECK...
  OCEAN VIEW AND BLADES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. 

THE NANTICOKE RIVER WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS HEAVY RAIN AND IT
CONTINUES TO RISE FROM THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...THE GAGE AT BRIDGEVILLE WILL GO OVER ITS 8.0 FOOT FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DRIVING INTO FLOOD WATERS COULD PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK AND COST YOU
THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS IN VEHICLE REPAIRS. FLOOD WATERS MAY BE DEEPER
THAT YOU THINK.  TURN AROUND AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 7569 3882 7572 3884 7566 3884 7555
      3888 7551 3894 7531 3881 7514 3880 7508
      3845 7505

$$

PO
3 follow-up statements
952 
WGUS81 KPHI 292145
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
545 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

DEC005-300030-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160930T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX DE-
545 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR SUSSEX
COUNTY...

AT 534 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ONE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
EXITING THE COUNTY TO THE NORTH...WHILE ANOTHER AREA IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GEORGETOWN...MILFORD...SEAFORD...MILLSBORO...LAUREL...LEWES...MILTON.
...SELBYVILLE...BRIDGEVILLE...DELMAR...DAGSBORO...MILLVILLE...
HENLOPEN ACRES...SYCAMORE...CAPE HENLOPEN STATE PARK...GUMBORO
...LONG NECK...ELLENDALE...OCEAN VIEW AND BLADES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. ROADWAY FLOODING DUE TO STANDING WATER HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE ARE ROADS CLOSED NEAR OAK ORCHARD
AND HARBESON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DRIVING INTO FLOOD WATERS COULD PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK AND COST YOU
THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS IN VEHICLE REPAIRS. FLOOD WATERS MAY BE DEEPER
THAT YOU THINK.  TURN AROUND AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 7569 3882 7572 3884 7566 3884 7555
      3888 7551 3894 7531 3881 7514 3880 7508
      3845 7505

$$

PO
354 
WGUS41 KPHI 300024
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
824 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

DEC005-300930-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160930T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX DE-
824 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE...

* UNTIL 530 AM EDT FRIDAY

* AT 818 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL
  CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING
  ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  GEORGETOWN...MILFORD...SEAFORD...MILLSBORO...LAUREL...LEWES...
  MILTON...SELBYVILLE...BRIDGEVILLE...DELMAR...DAGSBORO...
  MILLVILLE...ELLENDALE...HENLOPEN ACRES...SYCAMORE...
  CAPE HENLOPEN STATE PARK...GUMBORO...LONG NECK...
  OCEAN VIEW AND BLADES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL IS PARTS OF EASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEAR HARBESON HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 12 INCHES SO FAR OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. EXTENSIVE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE CLOSED AND
IMPASSABLE. DO NOT DRIVE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 7569 3882 7572 3884 7566 3884 7555
      3888 7551 3894 7531 3881 7514 3880 7508
      3845 7505

$$

PO
537 
WGUS81 KPHI 300648
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
248 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

DEC005-300930-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160930T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX DE-
248 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EDT FOR SUSSEX
COUNTY...

AT 240 AM EDT...WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ON MANY LOCAL ROADWAYS
THIS MORNING FROM THE RECENT AND CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL
CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL EXACERBATE ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GEORGETOWN...MILFORD...SEAFORD...MILLSBORO...LAUREL...LEWES...
MILTON...SELBYVILLE...BRIDGEVILLE...DELMAR...DAGSBORO...MILLVILLE...
ELLENDALE...HENLOPEN ACRES...SYCAMORE...CAPE HENLOPEN STATE PARK...
GUMBORO...LONG NECK...OCEAN VIEW AND BLADES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 7569 3882 7572 3884 7566 3884 7555
      3888 7551 3894 7531 3881 7514 3880 7508
      3845 7505

$$

ROBERTSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Sep 29, 12:07 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 29, 12:07 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1207 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain stationary to our south today through
Saturday as a couple of low pressure systems pinwheel to our south
and west. The low to our west will eventually lift through the Great
Lakes region and into the northeast over the weekend, before
weakening on Monday. This will pull the frontal boundary across our
area Sunday. High pressure builds to our north for Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Noon ESTF: essentially no change to the qpf philosophy. 12z GFS
looks way underdone despite considerable instability aloft late
today with NW-SE PWAT axis through the Delmarva and Del Bay and
increasing to nearly 2 inches. Cold air damming front just off
the coast is going to be primary lift mechanism of the unstable
air in a continuing mdt waa pattern. looks to me like a 6 hr
period of R+ 00z-06z s De and 3 hrs in PHL around 09z-12z Fri.

1045 AM ESTF: Have upgraded to a coastal flooding warning tonight
based on modeled increasing ene flow this evening and increasing
positive surge departures over the last 15 hours. Standard warning
details will be added to the warning text once the advisory
portion this morning has been discontinued.

930 AM ESTF: No change in qpf thinking from the 8am below except
to reduce pops NNJ and far ne PA, also dropping small chance thunder
in a portion of that area. Have lowered temps and dews near and
north of I78. Have increased gusts 5 mph throughout the area.

8 AM ESTF: Thinking that guidance is constantly modeling max rainfall
far too far west. the increasingly ely inflow at the sfc this evening
combined with being closer to the sbli subzero and constant instability
aloft through Friday and increasing 850 inflow to -4SD as well as
growing pwat axis to 2" by morning suggests to me another 2-6" in
much of delmarva between 12z today and 12z Friday. That will
include more tstms.

RER's already GED and will update this later today.

Dual pol STA looks much better than the legacy STP at DOX and DIX
for the Delmarva (DOX returned to service early yesterday
afternoon, missing the morning heavy rain that occurred MD e
shore). That means adding 70 to 90% to LEGACY output on the
DELMARVA should be helpful/useful reality.

8.5" max so far...isolated...more general 4-5 inchers parts of the
Delmarva.

Thanks to extensive cloud cover, do not expect temperatures
through the day to be much higher than what we saw overnight. This
will also limit instability, though isolated thunderstorms are
still possible thanks to meager elevated instability.

Tonight...low level flow should shift more easterly, and mid and
upper level flow back to southerly. As a result, another round of
rain, heavy at times will be possible for the southern half of our
region. The persistent surface high just to our north and
associated subsidence may be enough to keep heavy rain out of the
northern half of the region, but with the onshore flow, expect at
least light rain for almost all of the region. Persistent low
level cloud cover will once again limit nocturnal radiational
cooling overnight, meaning our lows should be within 10 degrees of
Thursday's highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A couple of areas of low pressure at the surface will continue to
be located to our south and west, while high pressure remains to
our north. In between, a stationary boundary will remain in place
just to our south. This will keep an onshore flow across our area.
Meanwhile, a closed low aloft will be spinning to our west as
well. This will keep a persistent southerly flow aloft across the
area at the same time. With the southerly flow aloft, cloudy
conditions, and a chance of light rain and/or drizzle will
continue across the area. It will not likely rain the entire time,
but several periods of rain will be associated with several short
waves/vorticity impulses rounding the closed low aloft to our
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues to be forecast for much of the extended
period, especially the end of this week into the weekend.

By Saturday, and especially Sunday, the high to our north begins
to move eastward, and the low to our west will begin lifting back
toward the Great Lakes region. This will eventually pull the
frontal boundary to our south across our area on Sunday. There
will continue to be a chance of showers Saturday through Sunday as
several short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area as the
closed low aloft begins to break down and lift to the northeast.

On Monday, the mid-level trough will be moving across the area,
and the low to our north will weaken as it moves into New England.
As the trough aloft crosses the area, there could be some
scattered showers affecting the area.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure builds to our north and
noses its way across our area. With the high to our north, an
onshore flow will develop, which may end up leading to more cloud
cover and cooler conditions. There could also end up being some
light rain and/or drizzle if enough moisture moves across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...MVFR cigs variable IFR conditions in showery
rains. e-ne winds gust 20-30 kt at times, with the gusts 30 kt
vcnty PHL/ILG and ACY. Iso thunder possible but not in the TAF
attm due to low confidence.

Friday...MVFR CIGS variable IFR conditions in stratus/periods of
rain-drizzle. East to northeast winds are expected to gust 20-30
knots for much of the area Friday, with the strongest winds near
the coast.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night-Saturday night...A prolonged period of MVFR or IFR
conditions with periods of rain is expected to affect the TAF
sites through the period.

Sunday-Monday...Some improvement, possibly to VFR. Showers remain
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
GLW continued with verification of gales already most areas. Only
upper DE Bay waters have not yet verified and they may not til
late today.

May extend GLW in the 330 PM fcst through Friday for southern NJ
and extend NNJ into Friday night, in large part dependent on the
afternoon collaboration.

Waves heights 8 to 13 ft throughout through Friday morning slowly
subsiding late Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday...Winds expected to drop below Small Craft
Advisory levels overnight Friday into Saturday, however, seas may
remain above advisory levels through the period.

Saturday night-Sunday...Winds and seas expected to drop below Small
Craft Advisory levels.

Sunday night-Monday...Conditions expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels.

RIP CURRENTS...

There is a high risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
along the NJ shore and the DE beaches today. Wave heights along
the coasts 5 to 9 feet.

Friday...Mount Holly's last day of our daily 530am surf zone
forecast this year...probably high risk due to residual heavy
surf DE and ongoing easterly gale NJ.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Thinking that guidance is constantly modeling max rainfall far
too far west. The increasingly ely inflow at the sfc this evening
combined with being closer to the sbli subzero and constant instability
aloft through Friday and increasing 850 inflow to -4SD as well as
growing pwat axis to 2" by Friday morning suggests to me another
2-6" in much of Delmarva between 12z today and 12z Friday. That
will include more tstms. note a possible sfc trough just off the
mid Atlantic coast. That aids the lift near the Delmarva coast.
its usually the first lift area that gets the heaviest convective
associatedrainfall.

RER's already GED and will update this RER later today.

Dual pol STA looks much better than the legacy STP at DOX and DIX
for the Delmarva (recall DOX came back on line early yesterday
afternoon, missing the Wednesday morning heavy rain that occurred
on parts of MD's eastern upper shore). that means add 70 to 90%
to LEGACY out put on the DELMARVA should be helpful.

8.5" max (isolated in s DE), mostly 4's and 5's, so far.

00z/29 ECMWF max rainfall next 48 hours about 5" Md E shore.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have upgraded to a coastal flooding warning tonight ocean county
southward, based on modeled increasing ene flow this evening and
increasing positive surge departures over the last 15 hours.
Standard warning details will be added to the warning text once
the advisory portion this morning has been discontinued.

Expect a resurgence of inflow wind with gusts near 40 kt at the
time of this evenings high tide cycle.

Otherwise advisories continue as previously forecast today.

Minor tidal inundation flooding has to be occurring this morning
southern NJ and De coasts. The constant inflow may be making it a
bit worse in the back bays than on the coast.

Last evening ACY was a touch into flood at 712PM (6.35 MLLW with
threshold 6.3). This morning Atlantic City NOS registered 6.6Ft
MLLW or .3 ft over the threshold.

This morning Lewes DE registered 6.6' MLLW (threshold 6.3), Cape
May 7.15 ft (threshold 7 feet MLLW)

Since tonight's high tide cycle is higher than that of this morning,
and inflow should be stronger, flooding will be worse...probably
half a foot to a foot deeper, and expect reaching MDT threshold s
NJ and De Atlc shores.

The following two high tide cycles Friday will probably endure
minor tidal inundation flooding.

Additionally...waves this morning were at least 7 to 8 feet on
the coast (BTHD1) and may grow to 10 feet tonight. This could add
splashover wave runup problems to the lowlands.

&&

.CLIMATE...
September will be/is a top 10 warmest month through most of our
forecast area, for the 3rd consecutive month!

Also September will be/is enjoying a second consecutive top 5
warmest month in the period of record for PHL and ABE.

We've run the actual numbers through the 28th, then added the
forecast high/low for 29th and 30th.

Philadelphia: Expect a 73.8 degree average or about 5 degrees above
the monthly normal of 69.1. This will be a #4 or #5 warmest
September on record for Philadelphia.

Philadelphia September average temperature rankings

75.4 -1881
74.5 -2015
74.1 -1931 74.1 -1930
73.8 -2005 and 2016 #4

(small chance PHL avg will be 73.7 or #5 ranking)
72.9 -2010 72.9 - 1921

Philly ranked #7 warmest July followed by a warmest ever August in
the POR dating back to 1874.

Atlantic City: Expect a 71.2 degree monthly average temperature, or
4 degrees above the monthly normal of 67.2. This would equate to
an 8th warmest September in the period of record dating back to 1874.
Atlantic City recorded a #7 warmest July and then a warmest ever
August.

73.3 - 1961
72.8 - 1881
72.3 - 1931 and 1930
71.7 - 1921
71.6 - 2015
71.5 - 1933
71.3 - 2005

71.2 - 2016 #8
71.0 - 2010
70.6 - 2011 and 1906

Allentown: Expect a monthly average of 69.4 degrees, or 5.5
degrees above the monthly normal of 63.9 and a 4th warmest
September on record. Allentown ranked 8th warmest July and #2
warmest August in the period of record.

70.8 - 1961
70.3 - 1980
69.7 - 2015
69.4 - 1931 and 2016

(small chance Allentown will rank #5 at 69.3 degrees)

68.7 - 2005

Daily rainfall records for September 29 where there is maybe a small
chance of exceeding:

PHL 1.87 1963
ILG 1.97 1963
GED 1.35 2015
RDG 3.55 1934

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for NJZ020>027.
     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for NJZ014-024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ020>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ012>014.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for DEZ002>004.
     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for DEZ004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DEZ002>004.
     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for DEZ001>004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ452>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450-451.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

&&

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Drag/Johnson  1207P
Short Term...Drag/Johnson
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Johnson/Robertson
Hydrology...
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Climate...
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 29, 10:34 AM EDT, 3 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

NJZ001-007>010-015-017>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-301445-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ020>023-027-301445-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD
TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ016-301445-
SALEM-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD
TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012-013-301445-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD
TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-301445-
NEW CASTLE-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-301445-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-301445-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ024>026-301445-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD
TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-301445-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-301445-
DELAWARE BEACHES-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-301445-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ452>455-301445-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-301445-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1034 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 29, 1:47 PM EDT, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HARBESON                38.72N  75.28W
09/29/2016  M9.18 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601997

STAFF
Local storm report, Sep 29, 1:50 PM EDT, 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
150 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MILFORD                 38.91N  75.43W
09/29/2016                   SUSSEX             DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601998

STAFF
Local storm report, Sep 29, 1:52 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
152 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HARBESON                38.72N  75.28W
09/29/2016  M9.19 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601999

STAFF
Local storm report, Sep 29, 1:53 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
153 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GEORGETOWN              38.69N  75.39W
09/29/2016  M4.63 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1602001

STAFF
Local storm report, Sep 29, 2:24 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
224 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HARBESON                38.72N  75.28W
09/29/2016  M9.23 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1602002

STAFF
Local storm report, Sep 29, 2:32 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
232 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HARBESON                38.72N  75.28W
09/29/2016  M9.30 INCH       SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1602003

STAFF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 29, 12:21 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIKent, Sussex8 hr
Sep 29, 1:38 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHISussex4 hr
Sep 29, 2:13 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHISussex9 hr
Sep 29, 2:18 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIKent, New Castle4 hr
Sep 29, 4:28 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIKent, Sussex5 hr
Sep 29, 5:08 AM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryPHIKent, New Castle, Sussex8 hr
Sep 29, 6:14 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIKent, New Castle3 hr
Sep 29, 10:27 AM EDTCoastal Flood WarningPHIKent, Sussex15 hr
Sep 29, 12:59 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHISussex4 hr
Sep 29, 1:22 PM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryPHINew Castle12 hr
Sep 29, 2:45 PM EDTWind AdvisoryPHISussex20 hr
Sep 29, 7:27 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIKent9 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in Delaware, 2016Every areal flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.