Areal Flood Warning 17, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

749 
WGUS41 KPHI 312014
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NJC019-035-010000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
414 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
  WEST CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 408 PM EDT...THE NESHANIC RIVER AT REAVILLE REMAINED ABOVE
  FLOOD STAGE. ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED IN BRANCHBURG AND HILLSBOROUGH
  DUE TO EARLIER FLOODING. WATER WAS STILL RISING ON THE NORTH
  BRANCH RARITAN AND SOUTH BRANCH RARITAN RIVERS, BUT IT DOESN'T
  APPEAR THEY WILL FLOOD.

  WE HAVE HEARD OF MANY WATER RESCUES YESTERDAY AND TODAY. TURN
  AROUND IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY. 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  FLEMINGTON...CLOVERHILL...FLAGTOWN AND RARITAN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4062 7466 4051 7462 4040 7485 4048 7489

$$

KRUZDLO

834 
WGUS81 KPHI 312139
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
539 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NJC019-312143-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HUNTERDON NJ-
539 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON
COUNTY...

FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. THE NESHANIC RIVER AT REAVILLE HAS
DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

LAT...LON 4045 7475 4051 7479 4051 7477 4054 7475
      4062 7466 4051 7462

$$

NJC035-010000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOMERSET NJ-
539 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 533 PM EDT...THE NORTH BRANCH RARITAN RIVER WAS STILL RISING AT
SOUTH BRANCH. WATER LEVELS HAVE EXCEEDED THE 8 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. AT
8 FEET, OLD YORK ROAD NEAR THE RIVER COULD TAKE ON WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 7475 4051 7479 4051 7477 4054 7475
      4062 7466 4051 7462

$$

KRUZDLO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain draped across portions of our area
today and tonight before gradually shifting offshore during Monday.
High pressure will then build across our area Tuesday through
Wednesday before shifting offshore Thursday. A cold front approaches
late Friday, then it is scheduled to settle across our region during
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is still ongoing across
north central New Jersey and will continue moving northeast over
the next couple of hours. For the rest of today, we are still in
a favorable position for more showers/t-storms ahead of a slow-
moving upper trof still over the midwest. Model guidance shows UVV
persisting over the mid- Atlantic today along with modest to
moderate instability with daytime heating. A slow moving frontal
boundary will enhance low- level convergence across the area as
well. Right now, the main axis for storm development by early
this afternoon looks to be from Mount Pocono to near Philadelphia.
Other isolated to scattered storms will still develop outside this area.
PWATs should continue to be in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range and thus
heavy downpours and localized flooding are possible again today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
For tonight, basically the same pattern aloft will continue,
although the surface front/trof is forecast to shift SE to near the
NJ shore by Monday morning. Ongoing convection during the evening
should diminish somewhat overnight, but some activity may continue
into early morning with the upper trof still upstream.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The synoptic setup is comprised of a trough in the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic that amplifies some into Tuesday before shifting offshore.
A ridge across the southern states builds north into the Great Lakes
Wednesday and Thursday, then a narrow ridge axis briefly moves
across our area Friday. A trough near Hudson Bay Friday into
Saturday extends into the Great Lakes, however an associated cold
front approaches late Friday and then settles across our area
Saturday. We used a model blend for Monday into Wednesday, then
mostly went with mostly a continuity/00z WPC guidance blend. Some
adjustments were then made however following additional
collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Monday...An upper-level trough sharpens some across the region.
As this occurs, a weak area surface low pressure tied to a frontal
boundary will gradually shift offshore. This will take much of the
forcing with it, however the presence of the upper-level trough will
still provide some lift and therefore some convection is still
expected. The convection may be more focused inland for much of the
day, before shifting toward the coast early in the evening. The PW
values remain near 2 inches and therefore included a heavy rain
mention. There could be a few strong thunderstorms during peak
heating, however the severe thunderstorm risk looks rather given
that the shear is not all that strong and lapse rates are not
forecast to be that steep. The convection should mostly trend
downward at night as the boundary stabilizes.

For Tuesday through Thursday...An upper-level trough axis should be
shifting offshore during Tuesday. However, if this is slower to
occur and enough moisture remains in place then a few showers/storms
could develop during peak heating. We then look for surface high
pressure to build in and be in place through Wednesday before it
shifts offshore Thursday. We are anticipating some lowering of the
dew points and also the temperatures. Some return flow however
starts to develop on Thursday, which should allow the dew points to
inch back up some.

For Friday and Saturday...High pressure to our south and east will
yield to a warm front lifting well to our north. This will help
assist in a more south-southwest flow as a cold front approaches
late day and at night. This front should settle across our area
during Saturday, however its forward progress could be slowed as the
main upper-level energy is forecast to track well to our north. Warm
air advection ahead of the front will allow for afternoon
temperatures to approach 90 degrees especially from the Interstate
95 corridor on south and east. The overall timing of the front will
govern any convective threat as it appears that a lee side trough
may not be present. We continued slight chance to low chance pops
from west to east mostly Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Conditions are mostly VFR to MVFR this morning but are also quite
variable. Cigs are then expected to gradually improve again to
VFR by mid-day. There will again be scattered showers and t-storms
around the area today which can produce locally poor conditions
especially this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light,
between 5 and 10 kt, except stronger around t-storms.

Outlook...
Monday...There is the potential for MVFR ceilings and/or
visibilities to start the morning, otherwise VFR with scattered to
broken cloud coverage. Some showers and thunderstorms will be around
and this will lead to mainly local and brief restrictions.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR overall, with drier conditions
especially Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain rather light through tonight. SE winds
should shift to SW over DE into southern portions of NJ waters as a
frontal boundary moves N. There will be scattered showers and t-
storms with locally gusty winds and poor vsbys.

Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...The winds and seas are anticipated to be
mainly below Small Craft Advisory criteria, as weak low pressure
shifts offshore late Monday and then high pressure arrives Tuesday
into Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday
especially toward late day, however the greatest concentration of
storms may end up being inland.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...AMC/Gaines
Short Term...AMC
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...AMC/Gorse
Marine...AMC/Gorse

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-010815-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES, WHICH CAN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES, WHICH CAN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-010815-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH CAN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, WHICH CAN LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-010815-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1019 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       READINGTON TWP          40.57N  74.80W
07/31/2016  M4.35 INCH       HUNTERDON          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 200 PM ON 7/30/16 THROUGH 1000 AM
            ON 7/31/16

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601690

MEOLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1024 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLOOD            1 S ISLAND BEACH        39.83N  74.09W
07/31/2016                   OCEAN              NJ   PARK SERVICE

            THE MAIN ROAD IN ISLAND BEACH STATE PARK WAS FLOODED
            DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601691

MEOLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1027 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORKED RIVER            39.81N  74.15W
07/31/2016  M2.11 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601692

MEOLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1028 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LANOKA HARBOR           39.87N  74.17W
07/31/2016  M2.50 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601693

MEOLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORKED RIVER            39.81N  74.15W
07/31/2016  M5.38 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601695

MEOLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE BERKELEY TWP      39.89N  74.25W
07/31/2016  M3.22 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   COCORAHS

            2.38 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 700 AND 900 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601696

MEOLA