Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary currently draped down through southern
Illinois...far western Kentucky and then down through far western
Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are breaking out along this boundary and will work
northeastward as go through the afternoon. Currently have pops in
over the southwest half of the Mid State to cover this. As temps
heat up this afternoon into the middle 90's expect to see heat
indicies climb above 100 over the southwest half the Mid State
with reading topping out around 104 in spotty locations. I don't
see any push to that front overnight in my cwa as wind fields
remain very weak so am expecting the front to basically remain
insitu then on Sunday make its move eastward into eastern
Tennessee and eastern Kentucky by afternoon. May need a pop first
part of this evening over southwest half of Middle Tennessee but
we could see isolated nocturnal thunderstorms try and develop
overnight. Will wait and decide later on whether to include small
pops overnight or not after a little collaboration. Mid state gets
into a little juicer air mass Sunday into Monday so will include
small pop for thunderstorms during the day Sunday and ramp pops up
Sunday night into Monday as upper ridge backs off and retrogrades
allowing for an upper trough to develop eastern U.S. which will
allow for a noticeable cool down in our temps and dewpoints beginning
by mid week and lasting into next weekend. Small rain chance on
Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday dry with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning on Friday and continuing into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. The only curve ball will
be some MVFR fog at KCSV after midnight. Winds will be light and
variable to calm throughout, as well.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........Unger

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
503 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
503 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. HEAT SAFETY WILL BE OF
PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT SAFETY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

TNZ058-093-094-260045-
LEWIS TN-WAYNE TN-LAWRENCE TN-
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...
NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND LEWIS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF HOHENWALD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOHENWALD...SUMMERTOWN...GORDONSBURG AND HENRYVILLE.

LAT...LON 3562 8747 3562 8742 3565 8738 3562 8735
      3559 8735 3558 8734 3557 8734 3557 8732
      3555 8732 3555 8729 3551 8728 3550 8727
      3550 8728 3547 8728 3544 8729 3543 8724
      3528 8758 3543 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 234DEG 16KT 3540 8757

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