Wind Advisory 3, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
751 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 518 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low moving
from srn Manitoba into western Ontario. The combination of large
scale forcing with deep layer qvector conv and upper level div along
with MUCAPE values aoa 1k J/Kg and strong moisture transport
supported shra/tsra from the se half of upper MI through ne WI
into IA. The heaviest rain has sagged to the south of the CWA.

Today, radar trends and short term high high res models suggest that
the remaining shra and few tsra will depart the srn and ern CWA btwn
12z-15z. Otherwise, a prominent dry slot will move in across the
area today with mostly sunny skies. 850 mb temps to around 17C will
support temps into the mid to upper 80s, especially where downslope
sw winds prevail. The deep mixing will result in gusty winds by late
this morning. The highest gusts are expected across the Keweenaw
where forecast wind profiles suggest gusts to around 35 knots are
likely. Since the 925-850 mb wind direction is closer to 240-250,
compared to the more favorable wrly component for the strongest winds
near CMX, expect only marginal potential for advy level wind gusts to
45 mph.

Tonight, Models suggest that the deeper moisture and a weak
shortwave trough and secondary cold front will move in btwn 06z-12z
with the chance for some light showers over the nw half. Although
there may be a brief surge in the winds with these features with a
modest pres rise, the lack of deeper mixing will limit potential for
stronger gusts. Winds will remain strong enough to keep temps in the
mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions and a few chances for rain over the next week.

Monday: Markedly cooler conditions are expected for Monday, with
some places seeing 24 hour temp changes from Sunday approaching
-25F. Abundant low-level moisture and a passing trough axis will
support isolated to scattered showers across most of the CWA,
especially west in the afternoon due some diurnal assistance.
Shallow inversion heights will limit cloud depths, but warm rain
processes should allow for possibly moderate rain with any showers.
Gusty NW winds and high waves will likely result in a high swim risk
for at least Alger County, but a Beach Hazards Statement may not be
needed due to both air temps in the low 60s and water temps in the
50s.

Monday night through Tuesday night: Conditions clear out fairly
quick Monday evening ahead of weakening mid-level ridging. Light
winds and generally dry and clear conditions will allow for a couple
chilly summer nights, with lows in the 40s inland. A few upper 30s
for the typically coldest locations cannot be ruled out Tuesday
night.

Wednesday through Saturday: After a return of seasonable temps for
Wednesday, a sharp trough and associated cold front will slowly
track across Upper MI Wednesday night through Thursday. The trough
will then stall NE of Lake Superior Friday into Saturday. With
cyclonic flow and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few
showers will be possible for mainly the east half. The arrival of
drier low-level air should prevent precip chances from continuing
into Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 745 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Aggressive drying behind a fropa will bring VFR wx to IWD/CMX and
clearing by mid morning at SAW. Expect gusty WSW winds, especially
at the more exposed CMX location, to then occur thru today under the
tight pres gradient behind the fropa and in the presence of diurnal
heating. The winds will diminish this evening with the loss of
daytime heating, especially at the more sheltered SAW and IWD sites.
Low level moisture will move back in overnight behind a secondary
cold front bringing mvfr cigs.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 518 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Behind a front moving through Lake Superior today, winds will
increase to 15 to 25 knots with some gusts to around 30 kts may at
higher observation platforms over west half of Lk Superior. Expect
gusty W winds to 25 knots to continue into Monday before high
pressure brings generally lights winds through the remainder of next
week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

MIZ001-003-271000-
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH TODAY OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SATURDAY...OR OF TREE DAMAGE
FROM WINDS TODAY...WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

MIZ002-004-005-009>012-084-271000-
ONTONAGON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 /308 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

MIZ006-007-013-014-085-271000-
ALGER-LUCE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-271000-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 /308 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LMZ221-248-250-271000-
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

KLUBER