Alert archive / Minnesota / Winter Storm Watches in 2016
Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Twin Cities, MN
NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this winter storm watch at Jan 31, 2016, 4:09 AM CST for 6 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Feb 2, 2016, 9:00 AM CST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 31, 2016, 4:09 AM CST (10:09 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 2, 2016, 9:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Feb 1, 2016, 11:11 AM CST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Twin Cities, MN
Counties Brown County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Rice County, MN, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Rusk County, WI
The radar
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 880 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 76 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 61 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 187 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
580 WWUS43 KMPX 311009 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 409 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHERN MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI...IN PART DUE TO STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY CREATING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. MNZ082>085-091>093-311815- /O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA... OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA 409 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAY CREATE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ MNZ077-078-WIZ024>028-311815- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ RICE-GOODHUE-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARIBAULT...RED WING...PRESCOTT... MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS...EAU CLAIRE 409 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES COULD CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * OTHER IMPACTS...WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL CAUSE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$
5 follow-up statements
207 WWUS43 KMPX 311300 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 700 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A BLIZZARD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JAMES THROUGH MANKATO TO OWATONNA. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MINNESOTA...INCLUDING FARIBAULT AND RED WING AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING RIVER FALLS...MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS AND EAU CLAIRE. MNZ082>085-091>093-312100- /O.CON.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA... OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA 700 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAY CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ MNZ077-078-WIZ024>028-312100- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ RICE-GOODHUE-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARIBAULT...RED WING...PRESCOTT... MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS...EAU CLAIRE 700 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES COULD CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * OTHER IMPACTS...WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL CAUSE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$
321 WWUS43 KMPX 312100 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A BLIZZARD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JAMES THROUGH MANKATO TO OWATONNA. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MINNESOTA...INCLUDING FARIBAULT AND RED WING AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING RIVER FALLS...MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS AND EAU CLAIRE. MNZ082>085-091>093-010500- /O.CON.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA... OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA 300 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAY CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ MNZ077-078-WIZ024>028-010500- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ RICE-GOODHUE-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARIBAULT...RED WING...PRESCOTT... MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS...EAU CLAIRE 300 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES COULD CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * OTHER IMPACTS...WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL CAUSE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$
270 WWUS43 KMPX 010436 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1036 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MAY RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A BLIZZARD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JAMES THROUGH MANKATO TO OWATONNA. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MINNESOTA...INCLUDING FARIBAULT AND RED WING AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING RIVER FALLS...MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS AND EAU CLAIRE. MNZ082>085-091>093-011200- /O.CON.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA... OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA 1036 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAY CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ MNZ077-078-WIZ024>028-011200- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ RICE-GOODHUE-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARIBAULT...RED WING...PRESCOTT... MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS...EAU CLAIRE 1036 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES COULD CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * OTHER IMPACTS...WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL CAUSE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$
322 WWUS43 KMPX 011006 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 406 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE HEAVY SNOW AS WELL AS HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IF STRONGER WINDS PREVAIL....THEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WOULD BE IN STORE FOR FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT...A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST. JAMES THROUGH MANKATO TO OWATONNA. A WINTER STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MINNESOTA...INCLUDING FARIBAULT AND RED WING. DAKOTA COUNTY WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING RIVER FALLS...MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS AND EAU CLAIRE. IN ADDITION...RUSK COUNTY WAS ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. MNZ070-074>076-WIZ016-011815- /O.EXB.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T1200Z/ DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RUSK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HASTINGS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER... LE SUEUR...LADYSMITH 406 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES COULD CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * OTHER IMPACTS...WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL CAUSE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ MNZ077-078-WIZ024>028-011815- /O.EXT.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T1200Z/ RICE-GOODHUE-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARIBAULT...RED WING...PRESCOTT... MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS...EAU CLAIRE 406 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES COULD CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * OTHER IMPACTS...WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL CAUSE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ MNZ082>085-091>093-011815- /O.CON.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA... OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA 406 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAY CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING SNOW WILL PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ RAH/SPD
908 WWUS43 KMPX 011711 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1111 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 11 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS...TO MINNEAPOLIS...TO CUMBERLAND WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS TO YIELD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...GENERALLY FROM REDWOOD FALLS...TO MANKATO...TO OWATONNA...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. TO THE NORTH AND EAST...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...GENERALLY FROM A GRANITE FALLS...TO LITCHFIELD...TO TWIN CITIES METRO...TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN LINE. MNZ082>085-091>093-020115- /O.UPG.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA... OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA 1111 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 11 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE...INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$ MNZ074-020115- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ BROWN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEW ULM 1111 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE...INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$ MNZ073-020115- /O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.160202T1200Z-160203T1200Z/ REDWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...REDWOOD FALLS 1111 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. * EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE...INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$ MNZ070-075>078-WIZ016-024>028-020115- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T1200Z/ DAKOTA-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-RUSK-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN- CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HASTINGS...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR... FARIBAULT...RED WING...LADYSMITH...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE... DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS...EAU CLAIRE 1111 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 9 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TUESDAY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. * PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$ MNZ060-062-063-067>069-WIZ015-023-020115- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T1200Z/ HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-BARRON-ST. CROIX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER... GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...RICE LAKE...HUDSON 1111 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. * EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 9 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TUESDAY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. * PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$ MNZ051>053-058-059-061-064>066-WIZ014-020115- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0005.160202T1500Z-160203T1200Z/ SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-ANOKA-YELLOW MEDICINE- RENVILLE-MCLEOD-POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY... LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...BLAINE...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA... HUTCHINSON...OSCEOLA 1111 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. * EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 9 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TUESDAY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. * PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Jan 31, 3:51 AM CST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 3:51 AM CST, 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING.
CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS LED TO
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE SEPARATION IN
THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD.
ONE CONCERN GOING FORWARD TODAY IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS WILL FORM THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...CLIPPING EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE
HEELS OF THIS MORNINGS CLOUDINESS EXITING THE AREA. THE MINNESOTA
RIVER VALLEY STANDS TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SOME CLEARING
FORECAST BEHIND THE TROUGH TODAY. HENCE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN PLACE.
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH SKY COVER STILL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS IS STILL WAY ABOVE THE NORMALS WHICH ARE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE MAIN POINTS OF EMPHASIS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDE THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WINTER STORM SET TO IMPACT
THE MIDWEST TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THEN THE FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TWO ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE WAVES THAT COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE STORM FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME IS CURRENTLY WELL
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH PUTS THINGS INTO PERSPECTIVE ON HOW FAR
AWAY IT STILL IS. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TONIGHT...AND REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TOMORROW
MORNING. FROM THERE...THE EXPECTATION OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE REGION AND EJECTING NORTHEAST REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE ALL IMPORTANT SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TILT OF THE
SYSTEM WILL DICTATE WHERE THE SNOW AXIS ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND
AT THIS POINT PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS EXISTS...ALONG WITH DECENT SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. IN ONE
CAMP...THE NAM IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER...TAKING THE SURFACE LOW
FROM SOUTHWESTERN KS...THROUGH MO...TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS
TRACK WOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA NO PRECIP AT ALL. THE 06Z RUN
CAME IN WITH A VERY MINOR NORTHWARD SHIFT...BUT STILL KEEPS THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GEM LEANS THE WAY OF THE NAM
STILL...WITH A FAIRLY SOUTHWARD TRACK...TAKING THE LOW OVER
CHICAGO...AND WOULD IMPLY EXTREME SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI
GETTING IN ON THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS
REMAINS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT IS STILL WAFFLING NORTH AND
SOUTH EACH RUN. THE 18Z RUN YESTERDAY GAVE MSP ABOUT 0.9" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT...MUCH MORE THAN ANY OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODEL.
THE 00Z RUN CAME IN WITH A SLIGHT JOG SOUTH AND GAVE MSP 0.3" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER THEN NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. EVEN IF THIS
NORTHERN OUTLIER WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THE BEST FORCING
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES...POSSIBLY REACHING FAR SOUTHERN
MN THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE AS FAR NORTH AS MSP...WITH THE BEST F-GEN AND FN VECTOR
DIVERGENCE PROGGED ACROSS IOWA INTO WI. NOT ONLY THAT...BUT THE
00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES A LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...WITH THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER LACKING MEMBERS WITH A
WESTERLY SOLUTION. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE LOW FROM MO
THROUGH NORTHERN IL...AND OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS TRACK IS
NORMALLY TO FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE TWIN CITIES TO GET IN ON THE
HEAVY SNOW. THE OOZ ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE VARIANCE GUIDANCE...WHICH ULTIMATELY WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS SOLUTION TAKES
THE SURFACE LOW FROM NORTHERN MO TOWARD CHICAGO WITH A CLOSED
500MB LOW MOVING FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD EAU CLAIRE...AND
HELPING PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SOUTHEASTERN MN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL WI. THIS INCLUDES A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE
TWIN CITIES. IT IS CONCERNING HOW FAR AWAY THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
AND BEST LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE THOUGH...SO CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT IS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THAT FACT...AND THE AMOUNT
OF DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AT THIS STAGE.
THE QPF WAS TWEAKED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN CENTRAL MN INCLUDING THE
TWIN CITIES. WHAT WAS CHANGED MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WAS THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS...AS THE AIR FORCE METHOD WENT MORE ALONG THE LINES
OF 12 TO 1 OR SO...AND GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND CERTAINLY
THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...FELT WAS VERY REASONABLE. MOST OF
SOUTHERN MN WILL SEE WINDS IN AT LEAST THE 20-30MPH RANGE TUESDAY
WITH THE FALLING SNOW...WHICH WILL ONLY REDUCE THOSE RATIOS. WITH
ALL OF THAT SAID...LOWERED THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MN
BUT KEPT FAR SOUTHERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI FAIRLY CONSISTENT TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS...THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FALLING SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HENCE A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE.
OTHERWISE...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN THROUGH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI
INCLUDING EAU CLAIRE LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR 6"+
SNOW SO INCLUDED THAT AREA IN A WINTER STORM WATCH. ALL IN
ALL...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD...CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK WITH US
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AS WE GAIN MORE CLARITY AND
CONFIDENCE AS TIME GOES ON.
BEYOND THIS STORM...WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TWO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MAY
PASS NEARBY...WHICH EXPLAINS THE POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT SHOULD TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY
MORNING. TONIGHT THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
KMSP...
VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT EXPECT A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR EARLY. CHC SN LATE. WIND N BECMG NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE LATE. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
TUE NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR/LIFR SNOW POSSIBLE. WIND N AT 20G35KT.
WED...VFR WIND NW AT 15G25KT
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ024>028.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ077-078.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ082>085-091>093.
&&
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRBHazardous weather outlook, Jan 30, 6:58 PM CST, 9 hours 11 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 658 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 MNZ070-076>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ016-023>028-010100- DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE- MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN- CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- 658 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY..BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MNZ041>045-047>069-073>075-WIZ014-015-010100- DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS- BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA- KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON- YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-REDWOOD-BROWN- NICOLLET-POLK-BARRON- 658 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY..BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. JRB
The office that day
Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 4:09 AM CST | Blizzard Watch | MPX | Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Martin, Steele, Waseca and 1 more | 31 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Watches in Minnesota, 2016Winter Storm Watches in Wisconsin, 2016Every winter storm watch in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.