Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

Showers/storms will exit the southeast late this afternoon to early
evening. Could see a strong to severe storm through late afternoon,
but window of opportunity will be small with the approaching front.
Skies are then expected to clear out this evening and overnight as
high pressure builds in behind the front.

Should be a pleasant day Monday under the high, with temperatures
back toward normal values and lower dewpoints.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will dominate the region bringing quiet weather. It
will be overhead on Tuesday morning. The NAM is showing some fog in
the suceptible areas but its dewpoints look a litlte overdone. A
lake breeze will keep the lakeshore areas a little cooler Tuesday
and Wednesday.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

There will be thunderstorm chances throughout this time period as
series of shortwaves move across the region. Southwest flow will
bring an increase in moisture with dewpoints rising into the mid to
upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday and PWs increasing to at least 1.6
starting on Wednesday. So heavy rain is possible with any
thunderstorms. Low pressure will move across southern Wisconsin or
northern Illinois but there is significant differences in timing. It
is accompanied by a strong shortwave shown by the GFS.
Later in this period there is limited cape at times.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
Another stronger shortwave drops through late in the week so slight
chance of precip continues through Saturday. By Sunday mid level
ridging develops across the plains and starts to shift into
Wisconsin bringing dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A few lingering MVFR ceilings should mix to VFR by late afternoon.
Showers/storms will exit the southeast late this afternoon to early
evening. Could see a strong to severe storm through late afternoon,
but window of opportunity will be small with the approaching front.

Skies will clear out this evening and overnight as high pressure
builds in behind the departing cold front. Quiet weather is then
expected Monday under the high.

&&

.MARINE...
Will see some fog at times into late afternoon until winds become
southwest. Main focus of fog near the shore is from Port Washington
northward, though fog farther from shower is possible elsewhere.

Could see a few wind gusts to 25 knots through late afternoon.

There will be a chance of storms through late afternoon, with it
turning dry by evening. Quiet weather is then expected Monday under
high pressure.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ058-059-063>066-
     068>072.

LM...None.
&&

TONIGHT/Monday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday...Marquardt

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST AND A
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO THE PROLONGED 4 DAY
PERIOD WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 95. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL AGAIN REACH THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 103 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE
OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE MORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LMZ643>646-250845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS MAT APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE MORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1106 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MOUNT HOREB         42.99N 89.74W
07/24/2016  M2.68 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W MADISON             43.08N 89.46W
07/24/2016  M2.25 INCH       DANE               WI   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S COLUMBUS            43.32N 89.01W
07/24/2016  M1.85 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE DARLINGTON         42.70N 90.09W
07/24/2016  M2.35 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NE MINERAL POINT      42.93N 90.09W
07/24/2016  M2.94 INCH       IOWA               WI   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
213 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

WIZ066-071-072-242000-
MILWAUKEE-RACINE-KENOSHA-
213 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MILWAUKEE AND
NORTHEASTERN RACINE COUNTIES...

AT 212 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR UNION GROVE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RACINE...OAK CREEK...MOUNT PLEASANT...SOUTH MILWAUKEE...STURTEVANT...UNION
GROVE...WIND POINT...CALEDONIA...ELMWOOD PARK...NORTH BAY...NORTH CAPE AND
FRANKSVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4276 8777 4271 8777 4269 8778 4266 8807
      4278 8816 4293 8785 4292 8784 4288 8785
      4285 8783 4284 8781 4278 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 246DEG 17KT 4275 8803

JTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

WIZ071-072-242030-
RACINE-KENOSHA-
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES...

AT 255 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PADDOCK LAKE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENOSHA...RACINE...MOUNT PLEASANT...PLEASANT PRAIRIE...STURTEVANT...UNION
GROVE...PADDOCK LAKE...CAMP LAKE...SILVER LAKE...WIND POINT...EAGLE LAKE...
BROWNS LAKE...CALEDONIA...SALEM...BURLINGTON...BRISTOL...ELMWOOD PARK...
NORTH BAY...NEW MUNSTER AND KANSASVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN.

LAT...LON 4267 8827 4280 8777 4278 8775 4276 8777
      4271 8777 4267 8779 4266 8781 4261 8782
      4259 8781 4254 8781 4250 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 253DEG 14KT 4261 8814

JTS