Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Milwaukee, WI

May 28, 2016Jefferson County, Waukesha County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 28, 2016, 7:49 PM CDT for Jefferson County, Waukesha County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2016, 7:49 PM CDT (00:49 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2016, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Jefferson County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 6 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 28, 1:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 329 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1484 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

996 
WUUS53 KMKX 290049
SVRMKX
WIC055-133-290115-
/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0016.160529T0049Z-160529T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
749 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...
  WEST CENTRAL WAUKESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 749 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT
  ATKINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OCONOMOWOC...DOUSMAN...IXONIA...ROME...HEBRON...SULLIVAN...HELENVILLE AND
  NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4288 8865 4296 8876 4316 8862 4306 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 217DEG 30KT 4293 8872 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DDV

2 follow-up statements

553 
WWUS53 KMKX 290103
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
803 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIC055-133-290115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-160529T0115Z/
JEFFERSON WI-WAUKESHA WI-
803 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND WEST CENTRAL WAUKESHA COUNTIES...

AT 803 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER OCONOMOWOC...OR
NEAR OKAUCHEE LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN OCONOMOWOC. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OCONOMOWOC...IXONIA AND SULLIVAN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 8859 4311 8864 4316 8862 4306 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 219DEG 45KT 4309 8854 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DAVIS

388 
WWUS53 KMKX 290110
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
810 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIC055-133-290120-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-160529T0115Z/
JEFFERSON WI-WAUKESHA WI-
810 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
WEST CENTRAL WAUKESHA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4295 8859 4311 8864 4316 8862 4306 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 217DEG 30KT 4309 8854 

$$

DAVIS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 28, 3:06 PM CDT, 4 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 3:06 PM CDT, 4 hours 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Scattered thunderstorms southwest of the forecast area are beginning
to form into a line. A shortwave will bring this line of storms into
the forecast area from late afternoon into the evening. More daytime
heating will be available in the the western forecast area as the
storms move through, so better bet for a few severe storms there.
A severe thunderstorm watch is thus in effect for western portions
of the forecast area. SPC is highlighting damaging winds is the
primary severe threat, though some large hail and a tornado are not
out of the question.

Storms should exit the east by mid/late evening, with dry weather
then expected overnight.

The main trough axis is expected to move through on Sunday, bringing
a chance for a few showers and storms. Should see decreasing precip
chances and clouds from southwest to northeast later in the day, so
have mildest temps in the southwest. Temps will be above normal
again.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

It looks like we'll have a warm and dry Memorial Day. High
pressure will take control with the column showing a significant
lack of moisture. So, should see abundant sunshine with highs in
the lower to mid 80s. If we do see any showers, it would be later
in the afternoon and most likely along the WI/IL border southwest
of Madison, but that threat looks low enough that we can leave it
out.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Ridging will slide east, allowing a very slow moving trough to
approach then move through the Upper Midwest during this period.
Look for showers and storms from time to time with the best chance
for rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. The surface trough/front
will likely exit far eastern Wisconsin by early Thursday morning.
Some lingering showers on Thursday and turning a bit cooler with
lower dewpoints.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Cooler high pressure settles across the area. This looks like a
dry period.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected into tonight (other than lower
conditions possible in storms). A line of showers and storms will
likely arrive in the western forecast area by late afternoon,
progressing eastward across southern Wisconsin during the evening
hours. Could see a strong/severe storm or two, particularly from
Madison westward.

A chance for showers and storms will linger on Sunday as the upper
trough moves through. Models are suggesting a return of some lower
ceilings for a while as the trough slides through.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will keep some patchy fog over the nearshore waters
at times through tonight. The fog could be briefly dense. Southwest
to west winds Sunday should bring an end to the fog.

A few gusts to 25 knots are not out of the question through late
this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Overall though,
conditions seem too borderline for a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Davis

Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 3:18 PM CDT, 4 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-292030-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING.  A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...THAT SHOULD MARK THE END
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-292030-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM MAINLY THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 28, 6:59 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
659 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             DE FOREST               43.24N 89.35W
05/28/2016  E0.25 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA MPING.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 28, 7:01 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
701 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON                 43.08N 89.38W
05/28/2016                   DANE               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON TWO HOUSES. NO INJURIES
            REPORTED.

&&

JTS

Local storm report, May 28, 7:17 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
717 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW JANESVILLE        42.66N 89.08W
05/28/2016  M45 MPH          ROCK               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, May 28, 7:20 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
720 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             JANESVILLE              42.68N 89.02W
05/28/2016  E0.88 INCH       ROCK               WI   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA TWITTER.

&&

JTS

Local storm report, May 28, 7:29 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JANESVILLE              42.68N 89.02W
05/28/2016                   ROCK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

JTS

Local storm report, May 28, 7:48 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
748 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             1 N JANESVILLE          42.70N 89.02W
05/28/2016  E0.25 INCH       ROCK               WI   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

JTS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 28, 7:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake	25 min
May 28, 7:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Rock	36 min
May 28, 7:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Jefferson, Rock, Walworth	28 min
May 28, 7:54 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		111 min
May 28, 8:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Walworth, Washington, Waukesha	33 min
May 28, 8:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Sheboygan, Washington	46 min
May 28, 9:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine	35 min
May 28, 9:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Sheboygan	17 min
May 28, 10:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine	30 min
May 29, 6:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Dane	20 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.