Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

924 
WWUS86 KMFR 210807
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
107 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

.LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH INLAND
TODAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CAZ285-ORZ624-625-212230-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0001.160721T2100Z-160722T0300Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE
AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
107 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE
  285...INCLUDING THE MODOC NATIONAL FOREST...SOUTHEASTERN
  PORTIONS OF OREGON FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624...INCLUDING THE
  FREMONT NATIONAL FOREST...AND OREGON FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625. 

* WIND...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE 
  FIRES TO SPREAD VERY RAPIDLY.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS CREATE
CONDITIONS WHERE MANY FIRE STARTS MAY OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

$$
DW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

842 
WWUS86 KMFR 212135
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
235 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

CAZ285-ORZ624-625-220300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160722T0300Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
235 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... 
  INCLUDING THE MODOC NATIONAL FOREST...SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS 
  OF OREGON FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624...INCLUDING THE FREMONT 
  NATIONAL FOREST...AND OREGON FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE 
  FIRES TO SPREAD VERY RAPIDLY.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS CREATE
CONDITIONS WHERE MANY FIRE STARTS MAY OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

922 
WWUS86 KMFR 220258
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
758 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016


CAZ285-ORZ624-625-220400-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160722T0300Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
758 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625...


$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
837 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...Current visible image shows clear skies over most of
the area. The exception is along the coast from Gold beach south
and in portions of the Umpqua Basin. Both of these areas should
gradually burn off this morning with mostly clear skies in the
afternoon. The weather today will be quiet with warmer
temperatures this afternoon. Out next attention will be the upper
low centered near 40m/135w. This will move towards us over the
next 24 to 36 hours and bring cooler temperatures and a slight
chance for thunderstorms mainly along the Cascades and portions of
the East Side. Also gusty winds are expected east of the Cascades.
Only a few minor adjustments were made to the forecast today,
otherwise previous forecast is still on track. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAF cycle...Marine stratus with MVFR to IFR
ceilings will persist along the coast and in areas of the Umpqua
Basin early this morning. Conditions will improve during the morning
with mainly VFR expected this afternoon. Low ceilings will return to
coast and Umpqua Valley tonight into Thursday morning. VFR will
prevail elsewhere for the next 24 hours. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 500 AM PDT Wednesday 20 July 2016...Broad, weak low
pressure will remain over the waters through Thursday night. This
will continue to produce light winds and seas. High pressure
builds in and a thermal trough develops along the coast Friday
with north winds beginning to increase, especially south of Cape
Blanco where advisory level winds may develop. Offshore high
pressure and a thermal trough along the coast is expected to be
the prevailing pattern over the weekend and into early next week.
North gales and very steep, wind-driven seas are likely during the
period south of Cape Blanco with small craft advisory conditions
to the north. -Wright/DW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 630 AM PDT Wednesday 20 July 2016.
The focus remains on a cold frontal passage on Thursday. This front
will contain relatively low amounts of moisture aloft but there will
be sufficient amounts to warrant continuing the chance of afternoon
and evening showers and slight chance of thunderstorms from the
southern Oregon Cascades northeastward into northern Klamath County.
Of greater concern is low humidity levels and strong gusty westerly
winds. These conditions will be near or above critical levels east
of the Cascades with the strongest winds expected during Thursday
afternoon and evening east of the Klamath Basin. The fire weather
watch remains in effect for portions of fire weather zones 285 in
northern California, and 624 and 625 in south central Oregon.
Winds will be weaker in subsequent days but there will be a warming
trend with hot, dry, and breezy conditions expected from
Friday through the first half of next week. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...Low clouds have filled the coastline from Florence
through Cape Blanco to just north of Gold Beach with inland
penetration to the Coos/Douglas County line. Short term model
brings low clouds into Roseburg shortly after sunrise and breaks
up the cloud layer quickly. Confidence however is not very high
that Roseburg will see extensive low clouds and a more likely
scenario would be low clouds into Sutherlin or Oakland.

The weather pattern today will again be mild with inland highs
about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday as the ridge expands
northward. A cold front is on track to bring gusty winds to the
high terrain, the Klamath/Tulelake Basin and the Goose Lake valley
Thursday afternoon. Sustained winds in those areas could be close
to 20 mph in the late afternoon through early evening. In addition
there will also be areas of instability across the Cascades from
around Crater Lake north and northeast into the northern half of
Klamath County and NW Lake County. At this point, it looks like
lightning strikes will be isolated in nature. Highs on Thursday
will fall back into the lower 80s with mid 70s possible for the
Roseburg area where extensive cloud cover is expected.

Beyond Thursday, ridging aloft will return with high temperature
climbing into the lower 90s next weekend. This is in line with the
previous forecast. Thursday night through Friday morning could see
offshore flow developing over SW Oregon mountains and western
Siskiyou mountains. Warming is expected to continue into the early
to middle of next week with middle 90s forecast for the Rogue
Valley. One thing of note is that the position of the ridge axis
is south to southwest of our forecast area. This practically shuts
down the southerly wind and models are showing the atmosphere to
be quite dry going into the weekend and next week. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.