Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
402 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

...DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
A trough of low pressure over the central portion of South Florida
this afternoon will continue to move to the west northwest into
the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This will focus the showers and
thunderstorms over the interior and west coast metro areas of
South Florida through the late afternoon hours. Therefore,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
over the interior and west coast metro areas through late this
afternoon, with only a slight chance to low end chance of showers
and thunderstorms over the east coast metro areas.

The Saharan air located over the Bahamas will move west northwest
tonight towards South Florida and move into the east coast metro
areas on Thursday before spreading over the rest of South Florida
Thursday night into Friday. The forecast PWAT values for Thursday
will range from 1.4 inches over Miami-Dade County to around 2
inches over the Lake Okeechobee region, then the forecast pwat
values across all of South Florida being in the 1.4 to 1.6 range
Thursday night into Friday. The low PWAT values for Thursday night
into Friday is around the 25th percentile for this time of year
where the normal PWAT values are around 1.9 inches.

This will keep the weather mostly dry over the east coast metro
areas for Thursday through Friday. The interior and west coast
metro areas will see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday before dropping down to only low end
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

The Saharan dust will slowly dissipate early this weekend over
South Florida, as the ridge of high pressure over the western
Atlantic waters shifts southward into South Florida due to a weak
cold front moving southward from the Tennessee Valley into
Northern Florida. This will allow for the wind flow to become
southerly over South Florida this weekend along with tropical
moisture returning to the area. Therefore, the pops will be back
to more of a typical summer time pattern with scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon especially over the Lake
Okeechobee region.

.LONG TERM...
The latest long range models are now showing a possible weak low
pressure system developing in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week moving to the northwest towards the southern Gulf
coast states. This will keep the winds in a southerly direction
over South Florida early next week with scattered pops.

The long range models are then showing a strong high pressure
developing over the Western Atlantic Waters and extending into the
Florida Peninsula for the middle to end of next week. If this
strong high pressure develops, then the pops will again be below
normal for this time of year along with above normal temperatures.
We will continue to monitor the latest forecast models through the
weekend to see if this trend continues.

&&

.MARINE...
The wind speeds will be 15 knots or less tonight through this
weekend, as the wind direction will slowly swing from a southeast
direction tonight to a southerly direction this weekend. This will
keep the seas at 3 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf
waters of South Florida through this weekend. The threat of rip
currents will also continue to slowly subside along the east coast
beaches of South Florida late this weekend as the winds become
more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  80  90 /  10  20  10  20
Miami            78  90  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           75  91  77  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
434 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
040845-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
434 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE LAKE OKECHOBEE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FLOODING: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION.

WIND: BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
413 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

FLZ066-067-070-071-032100-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-HENDRY FL-
413 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWARD...SOUTHWESTERN PALM
BEACH AND SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* AT 413 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  NEAR BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  MONTURA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
  RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
  PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
  AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
  BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE REFUGE...
  HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND OKEELANTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2623 8092 2637 8104 2656 8101 2662 8058
      2632 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 232DEG 41KT 2635 8092

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
452 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

FLZ067-071-032145-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
452 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

* AT 452 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CORAL
  SPRINGS TO 6 MILES NORTH OF MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
  RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
  PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
  AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
  BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CORAL SPRINGS...PARKLAND...ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE REFUGE...HOLEY LAND
  WILDLIFE REFUGE AND LOXAHATCHEE NWR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8027 2633 8029 2623 8030 2618 8031
      2624 8088 2661 8089 2655 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 226DEG 18KT 2629 8034 2626 8087

BAXTER