Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM KUCY TO KPBF. KJBR IS WEST OF THE
FRONT SO EXPECT VFR CONDS THERE WITH LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHRAS AND TSRAS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. ADDED VCTS TO KMEM/KMKL/KTUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST LATE. CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD IS LOW. ATTM EXPECT AN AREA OF SHRAS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRAS TO MOVE NE INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO
HARRISBURG ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
134 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TNZ048>050-011900-
TIPTON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-HAYWOOD TN-
134 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 134 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
COVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN TIPTON...SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE AND CENTRAL
HAYWOOD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3574 8918 3550 8911 3546 8955 3565 8960
      3575 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 255DEG 15KT 3557 8949

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARIS LANDING STATE PAR 36.44N 88.08W
05/01/2016                   HENRY              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
409 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCHANAN                36.41N 88.17W
05/01/2016                   HENRY              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON CYPRESS RD AND RIVERDALE DR

&&

JPM