Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Memphis, TN

321 
WGUS74 KMEG 150050
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
750 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

MSC033-TNC157-150100-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0060.000000T0000Z-160415T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DESOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
750 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DESOTO AND SOUTHEASTERN
SHELBY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3514 8995 3514 8964 3499 8968 3499 8972
      3486 8972 3486 9001

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... AT 3 PM CDT SHOWERS WERE ONGOING AROUND THE REGION
WITH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE FA. H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SITUATED INSIDE THE LARGER RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MODEST
INSTABILITY PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND AS SUCH THESE WILL BE THE LOCALES MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS BLANKETED
WITH CLOUDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY
COME TO AN END AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST AND THE REGION BECOMES ENTRENCHED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S WARMING TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S
ON SUNDAY. THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ALOFT...WITH AN UPPER LOW TO
BOTH THE EAST AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH...WILL KEEP THE REGION
UNDER A RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING AT LEAST THE MID 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS THE LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION
ALOFT.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF A MEM/MKL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
WITH SURFACE HEATING GRADUALLY DEEPENING THE MIXED LAYER AND CLOUD
BASES EAST OF THE AR UPPER LOW.

EVENING PERIODS A LITTLE MORE IN DOUBT. LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD PROMOTE CONTRACTION IN SHRA COVERAGE TO NEAR THE UPPER
LOW...AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. DESPITE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA WITH POCKETS OF MVFR THIS EVENING.

CIGS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING BEHIND A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AT TUP
LATE THIS EVENING AND AT MEM/MKL TOWARD 12Z. THIS FRONT MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A BRIEF DROP IN CIGS AND PATCHY SHRA/DZ.

PRESENCE OF A MIDLEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD
TO REGENERATION OF SCATTERED -SHRA TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...18Z FRIDAY.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
336 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM